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Topic: A nerd engineer looks at the numbers of covid
Replies: 18   Last Post: Mar 27, 2020 10:05 PM by: ClemEng87
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Replies: 18  

A nerd engineer looks at the numbers of covid

[7]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 7:19 PM
    Reply

At the end of the day alone at the office (I sent everyone home last week To work from home ), I looked at the rate of change in new cases in the US. I called my daughter to help me produce a scatter plot graph of this rate in excel. I made three Cs and a D in my calculus classes so I couldn’t derive or whatever you do with rates so I needed to rely on the good people of Microsoft. Looking at the last ten days, the rate of growth of the virus is on a downward trend. This doesn’t mean that it isn’t growing. It means that it is slowing even with increased testing. This is a good thing.

My high school senior daughter is gonna miss prom and maybe graduation before going to Clemson. I am
Bummed about that.

But there is really good discussion on this bored. Tbalm needing wings, LBB needing a smoke, spud needing another large mouth, Carlsbad needing somebody to agree with him, Salty providing sage insight, and tigerdug......well where is dug in all this??? Maybe in the middle of some safe harbor with warm water and light breeze from the south.

Thanks to Clemson and this really weird family of posters for offering hope that this thing may be over by Easter.....of this year or next.

Go tigers.


Here's the latest data (Mar 26) from Johns Hopkins:

[3]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 7:27 PM
    Reply

Don't know how anybody could think this will be over by Easter from these numbers.


Re: Here's the latest data (Mar 26) from Johns Hopkins:

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 8:14 PM
    Reply

great graphs, sure hope you don't build bridges for a living

2020 white level member


Re: Here's the latest data (Mar 26) from Johns Hopkins:

[2]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 9:05 PM
    Reply

I do build bridges for a living and my brother who is a Clemson PhD in Chemical Engineering has created a model that uses a normal distribution with several parameters similar to many chemical reactions. His model has the peak near this weekend. The graphs you showed depict the normal run up of a normal distribution curve many of us studied in school. Think of a quadratic equation graphed. Runs up fast, peaks, and runs out just as fast. Thinking it will always continue growing is like thinking it will always get hotter each day because it’s hotter than yesterday. We know this does not happen so we don’t watch the thermometer with concern.

I hope my brother is right, he might be wrong but 30 plus years in the chemical industry developing new chemicals mostly pharmaceuticals gives me confidence.


Re: Here's the latest data (Mar 26) from Johns Hopkins:


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 9:05 PM
    Reply

I do build bridges for a living and my brother who is a Clemson PhD in Chemical Engineering has created a model that uses a normal distribution with several parameters similar to many chemical reactions. His model has the peak near this weekend. The graphs you showed depict the normal run up of a normal distribution curve many of us studied in school. Think of a quadratic equation graphed. Runs up fast, peaks, and runs out just as fast. Thinking it will always continue growing is like thinking it will always get hotter each day because it’s hotter than yesterday. We know this does not happen so we don’t watch the thermometer with concern.

I hope my brother is right, he might be wrong but 30 plus years in the chemical industry developing new chemicals mostly pharmaceuticals gives me confidence.


Re: Here's the latest data (Mar 26) from Johns Hopkins:

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 9:05 PM
    Reply

I do build bridges for a living and my brother who is a Clemson PhD in Chemical Engineering has created a model that uses a normal distribution with several parameters similar to many chemical reactions. His model has the peak near this weekend. The graphs you showed depict the normal run up of a normal distribution curve many of us studied in school. Think of a quadratic equation graphed. Runs up fast, peaks, and runs out just as fast. Thinking it will always continue growing is like thinking it will always get hotter each day because it’s hotter than yesterday. We know this does not happen so we don’t watch the thermometer with concern.

I hope my brother is right, he might be wrong but 30 plus years in the chemical industry developing new chemicals mostly pharmaceuticals gives me confidence.


Re: Here's the latest data (Mar 26) from Johns Hopkins:


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 10:19 PM
    Reply

Smart yours are otherwise but you just hit post once ??

Kidding, done it many a time myself.

2020 white level member

Re: Here's the latest data (Mar 26) from Johns Hopkins:


Posted: Mar 27, 2020 10:05 PM
    Reply

Phone was slow. ??


Re: A nerd engineer looks at the numbers of covid

[2]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 7:29 PM
    Reply

;)


i dunno.. maybe TLaw will come back after his 3rd year

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 7:31 PM
    Reply

maybe he wont.


Re: i dunno.. maybe TLaw will come back after his 3rd year


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 10:36 PM
    Reply

Who knows, he might want to play the openner against Georgia!


Re: A nerd engineer looks at the numbers of covid


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 8:15 PM
    Reply

here is how the mainstream media presents the numbers:

look at this!

2
4
23
19
4
-0

OMG OMG OMG!!

2020 white level member


Re: A nerd engineer looks at the numbers of covid


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 9:59 PM
    Reply

I am glad someone received a lot better grades than what I earned(sic). My daughter came out of high school saying that "She loved Calculus". I told her she was sick. She received a degree in Chem. E.
Four years later she received a EE. degree from El Cid while working. Glad somebody is smart in this family.


Re: A nerd engineer looks at the numbers of covid

[2]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 10:42 PM
    Reply

Who sent her to Clemson? I too did learn alot in my time there, I just never let school work interfer with my College Education!


Re: A nerd engineer looks at the numbers of covid


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 10:43 PM
    Reply

Other than typing and spelling! Interfere


Re: A nerd engineer looks at the numbers of covid


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 10:01 PM
    Reply

I think the numbers may never be accurate because we are only testing (for the most part) people who present themselves to a medical facility with symptoms. My daughter came home from study abroad 13 days ago. Low fever and slight cough. We self isolated the entire family and had her living in one room and using one bathroom. We tried to find out how to get tested (DHEC to Nurse Hot Line to Primary Care Provider who said we had to call hospital who said we had to do virtual appointment... did that no call back for 2 days. back to primary care provider who by then had test kits.... took 3 days to get tested and only received results today. She was positive and has not had a fever or cough since 8 days ago. We were told by the hospital that if any of the rest of us become ill to stay at home and not be tested and only come in if we had shortness of breath or chest tightness. No one else has had any symptoms...thank the Lord. My point is that how do we infer anything if the numbers are truly telling whole story. I think there is still a spike coming from testing over the last week that are just now being reported. Praying for all to take this serious and think of others before self.


Re: A nerd engineer looks at the numbers of covid


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 10:50 PM
    Reply

A graph I found on

www.coronavirusgraphsontigernet.com


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Flu Deaths. Coronavirus Deaths


Re: A nerd engineer looks at the numbers of covid


Posted: Mar 27, 2020 8:52 PM
    Reply

Oh thank god. I'm glad you've pointed out that the pandemic ended today and the numbers aren't nearly as bad as the flu season numbers.


ole spud needs to give up his day job and start a fishing


Posted: Mar 27, 2020 8:43 PM
    Reply

show, but for the love of God with a professional photographer.


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