the Penn State versus Ohio State CFP dilemma - easy choice..

Nov 23, 2016, 4:44 AM

1) PSU has absolutely no OOC wins of note. But Ohio State beat Top 10 ranked Oklahoma, who could also end up as the Big XII champ.

2) PSU would have to beat Wisconsin in the B1G Champ game for this to matter, but Ohio State already beat Wisconsin as well.

3) For this comparison to matter, Ohio State is going to have to beat Michigan - and Michigan hammered PSU 49-10.

4) PSU has a "bad loss" to Pitt that Ohio State does not have.

5) PSU and Ohio State both beat Maryland, Indiana, and Rutgers in-conference handily. But PSU barely escaped Minnesota by 3, while Ohio State hammered well-regarded (previously ranked) Nebraska 62-3.

6) The only thing that PSU has on Ohio State is the H2H - the B1G Champ game should not count extra as it is redundant to the H2H - in other words, the winner of the H2H got to go to the Champ game.

7) In that H2H game, Ohio State had total Game Control even as they lost, and they never trailed until the last 4 and a half minutes of the game. Actually for most of the game, Ohio State led by 2 scores, and led by 2 TD's going into the 4th quarter. PSU blocked two kicks that day, the latter one resulting in a 60-yard return TD with 4 minutes left that won the game. Ohio State outgained PSU 410 to 275, and held a 37 to 22 minute advantage in time of possession. PSU was all of 2 for 14 in 3rd and 4th down conversions. PSU went 8 of 23 in passing for all of 150 yards. PSU had 12 possessions in the game, and all of 12 non-penalty First Downs to show for it. A full 60% of their total yards came on 2 scoring drives (74, 90). With the exception of the two blocked kicks, it was barely a game.

But probably most importantly, the game was at PSU, not Ohio State. And PSU only won by less than the 3.5 point margin attributed to home field advantage, a distinction that odds-makers and the committee will take note of.

In short, if it comes down to 2-loss, B1G Champ PSU versus 1-loss Ohio State, the committee has no option but to apply the eye-test on this one and put Ohio State in over PSU. And it's not even close.

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will step away from previous suggested ways of thinking.

You see, in looking at purely "differences" between the two teams, the H2H, Division, and the Conference all come down to H2H - it was all effectively decided between the two in that one game. This was almost the same for Clemson versus Louisville - the H2H also decided who would win the Division because neither team lost any other conference games. In our case we'll likely get an additional opponent in Virginia Tech in the CG that Louisville ultimately didn't play. That helps SOS, but it's a difference that really only comes about because of the H2H.

In the case of OSU and PSU, the Nittany Lion's H2H win allows them to play Wisconsin in the CG, a team OSU already beat. The awarding of a trophy for beating Wisconsin doesn't make PSU's win over Wisky a "better win" than what OSU has, it only denotes that the win came in a game at a neutral site. And the only reason it was PSU beating Wisky there instead of OSU was the H2H.

Separately counting the CG, the Division, and the H2H is therefore redundant. It's like counting the H2H 3 times instead of only once. I think the Committee will note that, and therefore discount the Div and the CG to the point of ignoring them.

I think they'll also discount the H2H because it was AT PSU, and because PSU only won by not having to play the game at a neutral field.

Then because PSU lost an extra game versus OSU, I think the Committee will select Ohio State over PSU easily.

JMHO.

the Penn State versus Ohio State CFP dilemma - easy choice..

It is easy, it's all about championships. They matter

epibuckeye***

just another dumbarse comment from Randall

Re: just another dumbarse comment from Randall

Re: the Penn State versus Ohio State CFP dilemma - easy choice..

actually, this sort of logic is where I think the Committee

I hate the "unbalanced" conference schedule

Why is Maryland playing so many Big Ten games? -- NM***

weird......***

Re: Why is Maryland playing so many Big Ten games? -- NM***

I won't feel sorry for any team with 2 losses that doesn't

Re: the Penn State versus Ohio State CFP dilemma - easy choice..

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