|
Replies: 26
| visibility 565
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
its really fascinating to watch
Jun 10, 2018, 10:09 AM
|
|
Democrats become free traders and the GOP become protectionist. all because hatred or love/fear, as the case may be, for Mr. Trump.
It wasnt that long ago that the Democrats were lead by the likes of #### Gephardt, Fritz Hollings, and Tom Harkin who were devout protectionist.
And of course, the GOP was the party of free trade (with some notable exceptions such as PJB).
Now Democrats are outraged at Trump! and the GOP is cheering him!
W F T is wrong with Americas that they would abandon their long held beliefs because of one man.
|
|
|
|
 |
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Cult of personality and dumbing down of the
Jun 10, 2018, 10:16 AM
|
|
electorate.
Though to be fair, you can’t really conflate the methods and rhetoric Trump has employed concerning trade with the democrats of old.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47795]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 44515
Joined: 9/5/02
|
but it cuts both ways!
Jun 10, 2018, 10:52 AM
|
|
yes there is a cult of personality but there is also an anti-cult that is knee-jerk opposed.
and of course I can equate the trade policy. The agriculture tariffs were at the heart of the Democrat party and this is not simply "Democrats of old".... Tom Harkin left office in 2015.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Objectively speaking , there is a moron in the WH that is
Jun 10, 2018, 11:20 AM
|
|
working to undermine our relationships with allies and bring an increasingly despotic Russia back into the fold.
It’s not really the same. But I know you’re just lawyering.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31830]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37134
Joined: 11/22/03
|
wait....
Jun 10, 2018, 11:28 AM
|
|
you might think Trump's policies are hurting our relationships with our allies (and I agree in many instances), but you seem to be saying that's he's doing this just to do it or with the goal being to destroy relationships. I don't believe that.
I think he's doing what he thinks (or perhaps equally as likely...what he's told) will ultimately benefit the US.
I don't happen to agree with much of his actions, but I think it makes more sense to debate the substance, than to assail his motives.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
To not question the motives at this point seems
Jun 10, 2018, 11:46 AM
|
|
willfully naive. About as naive as the manifesto Tiggity just penned below.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31830]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37134
Joined: 11/22/03
|
give me break....
Jun 10, 2018, 2:27 PM
|
|
show me some proof of some kind of motive in regards to Trump.
It's just pure fantastical speculation that fits a political narrative.
I personally believe he has no political center and is easily moved by those that are persuasive on any specific issue. That combined with a certain level of incompetence gives us what we have now, imo. But to say he's acting to purposefully harm the country is about as whacko and void of proof as those that said the same thing about President Obama.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Legend [18003]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30146
Joined: 9/9/06
|
He's an incompetent narcissist who lacks empathy
Jun 10, 2018, 6:39 PM
|
|
and I agree with you in that I don't think him mentally or emotionally capable of being some Machiavellian mastermind who is trying to purposefully harm the country. However, I don't think he cares that what he does harms others or the country either.
I'm not sure which is worse.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1405]
TigerPulse: 54%
Posts: 3412
Joined: 1/10/13
|
Re: give me break....
Jun 11, 2018, 10:57 AM
[ in reply to give me break.... ] |
|
Lol. Anyone who can't make the Russian connection yet is out in Wackyland.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31830]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37134
Joined: 11/22/03
|
Anyone who is making that connection is doing so...
Jun 11, 2018, 5:59 PM
|
|
based purely on speculation...at least in terms of some conspiracy where Trump is doing Russia's bidding at the expense of the US. Show me some proof that is happening. Should be really easy if it's as clear-cut as you make it out to be.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1405]
TigerPulse: 54%
Posts: 3412
Joined: 1/10/13
|
Re: Anyone who is making that connection is doing so...
Jun 11, 2018, 9:41 PM
|
|
He's destroying relationships with our allies while attempting to benefit Russia. How is that not enough?
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31830]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37134
Joined: 11/22/03
|
How is it benefiting Russia?....
Jun 11, 2018, 10:52 PM
|
|
I don't agree with his exact methods and certainly not his implementation, but I'm sympathetic to the idea that the US is on the wrong end of many trade situations.
You're spouting talking points and I'm asking for facts.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1405]
TigerPulse: 54%
Posts: 3412
Joined: 1/10/13
|
Re: wait....
Jun 10, 2018, 1:57 PM
[ in reply to wait.... ] |
|
He's not doing it just to do it, he's doing it to benefit Russia.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Legend [18003]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30146
Joined: 9/9/06
|
Even if it's not on purpose, the results are the same***
Jun 10, 2018, 6:49 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31830]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37134
Joined: 11/22/03
|
LOL...wow***
Jun 11, 2018, 8:24 AM
[ in reply to Re: wait.... ] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97649]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64785
Joined: 7/13/02
|
The problem with Trump is he's not married to a party or
Jun 10, 2018, 11:35 AM
[ in reply to but it cuts both ways! ] |
|
an ideology. He's going to do what the thinks is right. Eff the politics of it. Eff the media reaction to it.
That's why everyone (GOP and Dems) hates him. Truth is the established power in both parties support free trade, and illegal immigration. And this goes back decades really. Back to Reagan actually. Our national debt and federal government spending started it's meteoric rise during the Reagan years. Around that time the trajectory of our government changed with regard to economic policy and Congress played right along, as did Presidents. Congress spent decades spending, and then spending more, and then spending more. They in effect bought votes for decades, ostensibly with tax dollars, and later they just said fuggit, we'll just tack on more debt.
Point is, illegal immigration and free trade are two things that have been used for decades to allow our debt to expand to its current level, yet still be manageable. If you can keep domestic wages flat by saturating America with illegal alien labor, and you can keep goods cheap by using dirt cheap third world labor, THAT KEEPS INFLATION LOW. LOW INFLATION and a relatively stagnant economy keep interest rates low. Low interest rates means everyone, from businesses, to families, to Congress, can leverage serviceable debt to live above their means.
The implications and dangers are right there in the numbers. We spend $300 billion and some change paying interest on our $21 trillion national debt. We take in around $4 trillion in revenue yearly from taxes. So servicing our debt costs America less than 10% of our total revenue. That's a good situation for a mortgage payment for any family, and extremely reasonable. The problem is that rate is set at around 1.75% right now, based on interest rates set by the Federal Reserve for government lending. The private sector has enjoyed rates of 3-4% for years. Inflation has hovered around 3% forever now. So what happens if some bull in a china shop comes in and actually starts doing things to bring jobs back to America? What happens if illegal labor is deported? What happens when tariffs are levied on those goods made with dirt cheap 3rd world labor? Two things. Jobs increase in America, wages rise, and costs for goods and services rise as well. That creates inflationary pressures on the currency. Next thing you know, wages are up 20%, inflation is around 10-15%, and interest rates respond in kind. So let's say we have 15% inflation like we had in the 80's. And interest rates go up to 15%. Not that big of a deal under normal circumstances. That is not Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany inflation rates. That's not hyperinflation by any stretch. 10% inflation has happened several times before. Look at this chart. Notice the line flattens to 5% or less since the 80's, the same period of time we've run up our national debt...
If that line goes up to 10%, let's say, that $300 billion we spend servicing our debt climbs to nearly $2 trillion. Then we're at half our income being spent to service our debt. Now take out entitlements and that leaves us exactly nothing to spend on defense or all other discretionary spending. In that situation our national debt balloons $2 trillion a year with zero new spending. In essence, 10% inflation collapses our government. Notice what happened in the roaring 20's in the chart? Making America great again will kill us. No pun intended. We're really already dead but are content sitting in the corner we've painted ourselves into. Aside from some form of spending cuts, coupled with some draconian top 1% federal tax rates, and ending capital gains loopholes, and a myriad of other measures, we're in trouble if our economy booms.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31830]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37134
Joined: 11/22/03
|
he's not married to a school of thought or...
Jun 10, 2018, 2:45 PM
|
|
philosophy either and certainly appears to be easily swayed by certain folks around him. Also, he is quite incompetent in terms of implementation and introduction.
Take the steel and AL tariffs. They came out of nowhere which means US factories didn't even have a chance to think about expansion prior to their implementation. The result, we've seen steel pricing rise 30% PLUS the 25% tariff we're forced to pay because only one company in the US makes the type of steel used in electrical transformers and they were full prior to the tariff. And that's just one small example of lack of forethought and implementation.
Also, the steel and AL tariffs are against the EU, Canada, Japan, and South Korea too...hardly 3rd work labor markets.
As for the rest of your post, you have quite a few flaws in your reasoning. [I don't think we're headed for any where near the kind of inflation you're speaking about fwiw]
You mention "inflationary pressure on the currency"...got to be honest...I think you're mixing 3 different topics here. Currencies don't inflate or deflate. They certainly can devalue versus other currency, etc...
Also, you make the point that if rates go up our debt becomes more expensive to service, which is certainly right. However, you then make a comparison of the increase in debt service at the current rating of income, which doesn't make sense. Inflation would also impact the tax revenue/income on about the same level. Wages go up...revenue from income taxes go up by the same amount [all else held constant]. Now, revenue may not immediately go up by exactly the same about as the debt service level increases, but your analysis is way off about 10% inflation collapsing our government.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [28802]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 58393
Joined: 11/14/03
|
So much this
Jun 11, 2018, 5:20 PM
|
|
Many of the people who really seem to like Trump are motivated by their hatred of our politics. They'll like just about anybody who they think isn't "married to a political party" because they see that person as a comeuppance to our "corrupt" political system. So they don't particularly care what that person's policies are, they just want him to look like an outsider and to insult the right people.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team Captain [490]
TigerPulse: 70%
Posts: 1277
Joined: 4/28/04
|
Re: The problem with Trump is he's not married to a party or
Jun 11, 2018, 1:05 AM
[ in reply to The problem with Trump is he's not married to a party or ] |
|
Sorry, but you seem to have missed the point of TheRump's admin -- the main goals are to reduce taxes on the rich, while stuffing his family's collective pocket with all the ill-gotten gains he can get away with.
But, Mueller is wise to the DJT crimes and the Trump pardons and fake campaign spy conspiracies won't slow the Mueller from the coming indictments of TheRumps.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [28802]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 58393
Joined: 11/14/03
|
This is a 2nd grade level response to an adult post***
Jun 11, 2018, 5:21 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31830]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37134
Joined: 11/22/03
|
you're too kind...I had him in pre-k***
Jun 11, 2018, 9:22 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34092]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33592
Joined: 9/13/99
|
True although Clinton introduced the era of free-trade Dems.***
Jun 10, 2018, 6:07 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [82972]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 80112
Joined: 11/29/99
|
Yep, had nothing to do with Trump.***
Jun 11, 2018, 7:20 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31830]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 37134
Joined: 11/22/03
|
Is that really true?....
Jun 11, 2018, 10:24 AM
[ in reply to True although Clinton introduced the era of free-trade Dems.*** ] |
|
At the time NAFTA was passed, it was done with tepid democrat support. In the HOR, 75% of the GOP voted for it and only 40% of dems.
I'm not sure there has ever been an era of free-trade democrats. There has certainly been a shift, but the 2 main dem nominees in the last election either were very opposed to it or thought it didn't live up to it's promises and needed changing (meaning more protectionist).
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [82972]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 80112
Joined: 11/29/99
|
Clinton and Robert Rubin got most of that 40% to convert.
Jun 11, 2018, 6:28 PM
|
|
With the success of NAFTA helping drive the great econony of the 90s, many more converted. Add to that, the success of GATT and many more converted through the 2000s with the leadership of Obama. They were already free trade for the most part before Trump came around because they saw that most of the time tariffs don’t work.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lot o points [155581]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65689
Joined: 5/6/13
|
I'm not so sure about NAFTA driving the economy.
Jun 11, 2018, 10:09 PM
|
|
Methinks absent the massive tech explosion in the 90's (which truly drove the economy), NAFTA would have been massively detrimental to the US economy in the 90's.
There was a ton of pain from it before the profit ever came, and most of that pain happened in the 90's. Perot wasn't wrong about the giant sucking sound heading south.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [21614]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 23418
Joined: 8/16/03
|
Our political system has exposed human nature.
Jun 11, 2018, 11:04 AM
|
|
It's not about honesty or ideals. It's about tribalism and not losing.
And people can afford to be lazy about it. Standard of living remains high and until the system of insanity collapses, people will to continue to ignore the direction their country is taking.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replies: 26
| visibility 565
|
|
|
50
