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conspiracy to defeat Trump. Pick your flavor.

Actually it's a respiratory virus that's become a pandemic. It's getting colder. Winter time. That's when all respiratory viruses spread more, and we stay inside more. It's going to do what pandemic respiratory viruses do. When they start, they appear to thrive in the summertime. What that is actually, is the virus attacking the most susceptible people, as it can spread in the summer because it's so contagious because there is near zero immunity in the community. That's why it hit the elderly and people with weakened immune systems early. And the death rate was highest for the elderly. As it becomes very widespread, it will impact younger and younger people. But in the winter it really hits, and that "summer spike" we saw, was merely a flareup compared to the levels to come. We saw it with swine flu in the US. We had flu cases in the middle of summer at winter levels. That has never happened before (recently), because it was a novel virus. Then in winter it surged again many times worse. Same thing/pattern here, different scale, much more deadly. Same pattern with the Spanish flu in 1918. It was not seasonal initially. Spanish flu first appeared and thrived in a "small" summertime first wave.

We are in our biggest spike right now. Where the top is, who knows. But I imagine that summer surge will get smaller and smaller on charts. All totally predictable. Results will be based on people and science and not the virus. The pattern is there, and it only changes based on what people do, or don't do. Remember "flattening the curve". Well, we did, sortof. And now there's another that needs to be flattened. Each time you flatten it, you push excess cases down the road to the next wave. Over several years, flattening spikes, you draw out the process and save some lives. That's the idea anyway. Is it worth the economic price? Probably not. A balance is the best you can hope for, and lord knows we're not balanced. Close bars, restaurants, and large events. Wear masks indoors, and try and keep 6 feet apart. About all you can do with minimal-moderate economic damage. Then let it do the rest. The damage is there. We as Americans just don't want to accept hardship, but it's here, one way or the other. Dead people, lost jobs. Best is to split the difference. Let some jobs go, let some people die. But shutting down, or ignoring it totally, are each very bad options.

Here's the dirty little secret, and the chart below demonstrates it. This is not going to be a disease of the elderly, or people with preexisting conditions only. Those are the people it attacks easiest/first, in warmer weather, when it spreads the least. There are countries who ignored covid far worse than the US, and their deaths trend younger than our deaths. But look at this chart (note the steep drops at the end are due to incomplete data because it takes a month or more to get accurate death certificates issued and to the CDC):

FIGURE 2. Percentage change in the weekly number of deaths in 2020 relative to average in the same weeks during 2015–2019, by age group — United States, 2015–2019 and 2020

Tobias27772

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Re: What are your guesses vis a vis the cause of the COVID surge

Nov 16, 2020, 10:38 AM

Covid trens November 2020.png(58.8 K)

Joey,

I think it is a combination of influences

1. The reopening of restaurants and bars

2. A general fatigue with and relaxing of safety measures

3. Winter - greater indoor exposure.

As far as schools are concerned, I got this in a daily briefing from the NYT. It seems to suggest that schools may not be the culprit. (see attached)

As the coronavirus has surged again in recent weeks, much of the United States has chosen to keep restaurants open and schools closed. Much of Europe has done the opposite.

The European approach seems to be working better.

Look at this chart, which shows the number of new daily virus cases in five countries, adjusted for population size:

By The New York Times
As you can see, both the U.S. and Europe have been coping with severe outbreaks, with caseloads rising even faster in much of Europe than in the U.S. during much of this fall. But over the past two weeks, France, Germany, Spain and Britain have managed to reduce their growth rates.

What is Europe doing differently? It is cracking down on the kind of indoor gatherings that most commonly spread the virus. England closed pubs, restaurants, gyms and more on Nov. 5 and announced they would remain closed until at least Dec. 2. France, Germany’s regional governments and the Catalonia region of Spain have also shut restaurants, among other businesses.

“I’m sure the Europeans didn’t want to restrict their activities any more than we do,” Janet Baseman, an epidemiologist at the University of Washington, told me over the weekend. “Everyone is tired and ready for this to end, but we have to accept the reality of the data before us.”

Many Americans have resisted accepting that reality. Across much of the country, restaurants remain open for indoor dining. Last week, New York State announced a new policy that public health experts consider to be a bizarre middle ground: Businesses with a liquor license can stay open until 10 p.m.

The one indoor activity that appears to present less risk is school, especially elementary school. Why? Young children seem to spread the virus less often than adults do. “Research has shown that if you put social-distancing protocols in place, school is actually quite a safe environment,” Andreas Schleicher, who studies schools for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris, told NPR.

Closing schools and switching entirely to remote learning, on the other hand, has big social costs. Children are learning less, and many parents, mostly mothers, have dropped out of the labor force. The U.S. is suffering from both of these problems and from a raging pandemic.

There are no easy answers, to be sure. Closing restaurants and other businesses creates economic hardship (which some European countries are trying to reduce through government aid).

And the virus is now spreading so rapidly in the U.S. that keeping schools open does pose risks, including the chance that teachers, janitors and other workers infect one another. To keep schools open in a safe way, the U.S. would probably first need to close other public places. Only a few states — including Michigan, Oregon, New Mexico and Washington — have closed indoor dining recently.

“The U.S. case and hospitalization numbers we’re seeing right now are chilling,” Baseman said.

But if there are no perfect solutions to the pandemic, there are better and worse ones. Right now, the U.S. seems to be falling well short of what’s possible.

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What are your guesses vis a vis the cause of the COVID surge

I think kids, for the most part, are

Halloween***

When covid started, schools were immediately stopped

It's all Donald Trump's fault. Or a liberal media

With Moderna's vaccine at 95% effective, there may not be a

I was talking about this past summer

Re: What are your guesses vis a vis the cause of the COVID surge

NFL Sundays mean fewer butts in church: vengeful God.***

Re: What are your guesses vis a vis the cause of the COVID surge

Noice......from the school nurse.

Sorry to hear that - but it actually seems like a reasonable

Prolly do like they say and just watch him.

All I had was a cough and super tired

Besides quarantine, what did you do to treat it? Or did you

You won't anyway. But being super tired I'd get tested

Re: You won't anyway. But being super tired I'd get tested

Re: Prolly do like they say and just watch him.

I'm glad the school didn't overreact. It sounds like they

Re: What are your guesses vis a vis the cause of the COVID surge

Restaurants/Bars close here on Wednesday

Which state does you be in?

MI

Re: What are your guesses vis a vis the cause of the COVID surge

Yeah - I haven't become a recluse - but I will skip a

climate change ... and

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