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Walk-On [100]
TigerPulse: 95%
Posts: 210
Joined: 9/3/17
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Vegas is dumb
Dec 5, 2017, 2:45 PM
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How in the world is Alabama a favorite in this game? I know that they're closest to New Orleans and how some of their players are going to be healthy, but seriously Jalen Hurts can't throw a football if his life depended on it, they have a seriously injured defense, and their last game was a 12 point loss. They barely survived a 8-4 Mississippi State team and their best win is an OK LSU Team that lost to Troy. I have a really good feeling that Alabama will be this years playoff punching bag.
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110%er [6582]
TigerPulse: 95%
Posts: 8157
Joined: 1/2/00
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no bamer fans and SEC homers are dumb
Dec 5, 2017, 2:49 PM
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all these homers and such are probably throwing money at bama blindly. Vegas has the line set accordingly to try to get more money to be played on our side. Those buildings in vegas didnt build themselves.
However, vegas has taken it on the chin the last few years in regards to us in the playoffs. I remember stories on how vegas took a bath after we scored the last td 2 yrs ago to cover, and then again took a bath last yr when we won straight up
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All-TigerNet [10824]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 13435
Joined: 10/13/14
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Re: no bamer fans and SEC homers are dumb
Dec 5, 2017, 3:07 PM
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Exactly. Vegas is into $, not college football. They'll lay odds on the tortoise and hare if they can make some $ off it.
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110%er [5448]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2067
Joined: 11/23/03
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Shhhhhh...
Dec 5, 2017, 2:57 PM
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...don't tell anyone. We need to keep this quiet. Let the rest of the world believe in Bammer.
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110%er [5627]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11977
Joined: 6/11/02
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Lines are set to get equal money on both sides .. has
Dec 5, 2017, 3:00 PM
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nothing to do with who "they" think will win. Lines then move up or down according to the number of wagers and amount of wagers placed in an effort to achieve a 50/50 split.
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CU Guru [1322]
TigerPulse: 99%
Posts: 2115
Joined: 12/25/10
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smart enough to build pools in the desert***
Dec 5, 2017, 3:02 PM
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Orange Blooded [3215]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3437
Joined: 11/3/03
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Vegas Isn't Dumb
Dec 5, 2017, 3:02 PM
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Vegas doesn't try to project the winner or the margin of victory they set lines to get money on both sides of the bet. As much as they want to win they want more to minimize downside risk. Money will go to Alabama based on the name, the sharp's will see value in Clemson and before kickoff there should be equitable money on both sides of the bet..... if not Vegas is pulling hard for where they have risk. Doesn't have anything to do with who they think is going to win.
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110%er [5912]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 8567
Joined: 11/30/98
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Re: Vegas Isn't Dumb
Dec 5, 2017, 3:07 PM
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They didn't build all those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas by losing money!
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All-In [48078]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 49059
Joined: 5/16/04
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They still set the line on who they think should be the ....
Dec 5, 2017, 4:32 PM
[ in reply to Vegas Isn't Dumb ] |
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favorite. They are amazing at setting the lines too. Then people bet from there and they hope it balances out.
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All-In [27366]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 26233
Joined: 9/19/11
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Vegas Isn't Dumb.
Dec 5, 2017, 3:09 PM
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People that give Vegas their money are dumb.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 22351
Joined: 4/24/04
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Vegas doesn't care about resume. They use predictive
Dec 5, 2017, 3:14 PM
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metrics as a base line and then tweak it based on where they expect the money to go. Bama was #1 in a lot of those metrics before they lost to Auburn, and one loss by 12 points on the road against another top 5-10 team doesn't hurt you much in those.
It really shouldn't have come as any surprise that Bama would not only be favored over us, but also the favorites to win the CFP as soon as they got selected.
And i really don't think we are any better than they are. Two evenly matched teams IMO. Should be a heckuva game.
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CU Guru [1088]
TigerPulse: 97%
Posts: 1352
Joined: 9/20/04
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Re: Vegas doesn't care about resume. They use predictive
Dec 5, 2017, 3:37 PM
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They don't tweak based on where it WILL go, they tweak based on where it IS going. They are looking to be net neural and make in on the gross transaction(s). They are looking for risk, but to eliminate it.
BAMA's pulling $ based on name rec. If you think they're that dumb, i'm sure someone out there will take the other side!!!
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CU Guru [1088]
TigerPulse: 97%
Posts: 1352
Joined: 9/20/04
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Re: Vegas doesn't care about resume. They use predictive
Dec 5, 2017, 3:40 PM
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Correction, meant to type: "They are NOT looking for risk, but to eliminate it."
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Orange Blooded [2763]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 4900
Joined: 9/10/05
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Tigers > Pedophiles***
Dec 5, 2017, 3:28 PM
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Legend [17748]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 16642
Joined: 9/1/12
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Vegas isn't dumb. People who complain about spreads are dumb.***
Dec 5, 2017, 4:40 PM
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