Let's Enter the Brain of the Committee Members

Nov 14, 2016, 2:18 PM

When they sit down on Tuesday night the very first thing they are going to do is create 2 groups. They're going to create a top group and then the second group. The top group will obviously be Alabama all by themselves so there won't be much time spent on #1.

#1 Alabama

Then they will create a second group that belong together. Obviously Clemson, Michigan, Louisville, Washington and Ohio State will be among that group in no particular order. Now that those teams have lost a game they may then add Wisconsin, Penn St, Oklahoma to that group.

They will then separate this group by record.

9-1 Clemson, Michigan, Ohio State, Louisville, and Washington
8-2 Wisconsin, Penn St., Oklahoma

Then they will determine if any of those teams have wins within that group

Clemson 1
Michigan 2
Ohio State 2
Louisville 0
Washington 0
Wisconsin 0
Penn St 1
Oklahoma 0

Then separate those into groups by # of wins

Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, Penn St.

Louisville, Washington, Wisconsin, Oklahoma

Then they'll get the SOR for each team
Clemson 2
Michigan 7
Louisville 5
Ohio State 3
Wisconsin 4
Washington 9
Oklahoma 13
Penn St. 11

Then the SOS
Clemson 23
Ohio St. 45
Louisville 59
Michigan 55
Wisconsin 19
Washington 65
Oklahoma 27
Penn St. 36

Then they look at each team and where they land

Michigan 1 win in this group, 9-1, 7 SOR and 55 SOS
Clemson 1 win, 9-1, 2 SOR, 23 SOS
Louisville 0 win, 9-1, 5 SOR, 59 SOS
Ohio St. 2 win, 9-1, 3 SOR, 45 SOS
Wisconsin 0 win, 8-2, 4 SOR, 19 SOS
Washington 0 win, 9-1, 9 SOR, 65 SOS
Oklahoma 0 win, 8-2, 13 SOR, 27 SOS
Penn St. 1 win, 8-2, 11 SOR, 36 SOS

Looking at this the obvious #2 is Ohio St.

#2 Ohio State

For 3 and 4 your obvious choices from this are Clemson and Michigan and Louisville. So when it's comparable you look at record, H2H, SOS, SOR, best win and eye test.

All have the same record, Clemson beat 1 of the 3, Clemson has highest SOS, highest SOR, best win but is last on the eye test the last few games. Clemson wins on 4 of 6 criteria.

#3 Clemson

Michigan vs Lousiville - same record, Louisville has slightly better SOR, Michigan has slightly better SOS. Didn't play h2h, Best win for Lou is FSU, Best win for Mich is Wisconsin and Penn St. who are both a part of the second group, Louisville wins eye test lately. Michigan just lost. VERY VERY Close. I think they go Michigan because they have 2 top wins.

#4 Michigan

According to SOS and SOR the best candidate for #5 is Lousiville.

#5 Lousiville

According to SOS and SOR the best candidate for #6 is Wisconsin. Washington has a better record but they just lost so they lose eye test. Penn St has a win in the top 4 but worse SOS and SOR. Wisconsin beat LSU. Oklahoma has no key win, worst SOR but decent SOS. I say they go Wisky

#6 Wisconsin

#7 is between Washington, Oklahoma, Penn St. Washington is 9-1 and a better SOR than Penn St. Oklahoma has the best SOS but no key wins. Eye test Washington is last. Washington has a MUCH worse SOS than the other two. This one is really tough. Oklahoma likely wins the eye test of all of them. They prob go Oklahoma here.

#7 Oklahoma

#8 is between Washington and Penn St. Penn St. has a key win. Washington doesn't but they are 9-1. But Penn St. has a tougher schedule and may get the eye test here. I think it's gonna go to Penn St.

#8 Penn St.

#9 Washington

---------------------------
#1 Alabama
#2 Ohio State
#3 Clemson
#4 Michigan
#5 Louisville
#6 Wisconsin
#7 Oklahoma
#8 Penn St.
#9 Washington

#10 will be determined by the next group's movers and shakers. I think this may be how it shakes out according to their stated criteria. We'll see.

Message was edited by: CUAtTheFinishLine®

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I get it, Lamar Jackson is a human highlight reel. However, I don't understand why Louisville gets a pass for .....

1. Lost to Clemson AFTER holding an 8 point lead midway through the second half.
2. Scored in the last 30 seconds to come from behind against an AWFUL Virginia team.
3. Was outplayed and should have lost to Duke.
4. Was down 12-10 to Wake Forest at the start of the 4th quarter just a few days ago.

We aren't much better off than Louisville on close games, BUT we did beat them.

I think they put Ohio State at #2, Michigan at #3, and Clemson at #4 for now. After Ohio St and Mich play, Clemson moves up to #3, and Louisville to #4 .... IF they beat Houston on the road, and Kentucky at home. The Coaches poll and the AP rank teams on how they look today, versus the whole body of work. The committee will be looking at the whole body of work.

Let's Enter the Brain of the Committee Members

Loiusville should not be in Top 4 yet ....

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Today is November 14

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Michigan QB is out for the season with broken collarbone***

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