Thoughts heading into ACC tourney

May 19, 2018, 9:42 PM

1st things first, gotta give congrats to the team for winning the Atlantic Division & being regular season co-champs. Obviously better than the preseason projections. The struggles at home in ACC play bothered me, but picking up series wins in all the road series was an impressive feat.

My thoughts on pool draw:
Despite the subpar records going into Durham, I'm definitely concerned about the teams we face. Both teams need to win this tournament to make the NCAA tourney. Miami has a series win against us so we know they aren't going to be scared of us. Plus, with it being Coach Morris' last season, gotta figure the U will be extra motivated to try & send him off on a good note, especially after the record NCAA appearance streak was broken last year. UVa, even though we swept them on the road, kept each game to 1 run margins. They know if they can hang tough w/ us, they got a chance. We can't sleep on either team.

We make semis, nothing leads me to believe we won't face either FSU or NC St. Already coming off the season finale series won by FSU, both are jockeying for national seed. NC State put it to us early in the year, I'd love to see a little measure of revenge. But also, after the series a few weeks ago, another game against FSU would be must see baseball.

A run to the finals, I see the opponent being 1 of the following 4: UNC, Duke, Louisville, or GT. UNC & Duke would be big wins to bolster our 1-25 RPI record (sits @ 3-7, the biggest blight against this team in terms of the metrics looked @ for seeding). I see UL possibly making it to finals as they sit as a #2 regional seed - a run to the ACC title that would include potential wins over 3 of 5 top 25 RPI teams would be a big boost for them to steal away regional hosting from someone on the fringe. GT is same boat as Miami. They need to win this tournament to make NCAA, & it wouldn't be 1st time they did it.

Biggest key IMO: quality starts from pitchers. We know our bats being hot or cold will change faster than weather in the midwest during spring. Our pitching has been a big reason we're in the shape we're in @ end of the season. But we've had to lean alot on the relievers. If we can get deep starts & save the bullpen arms for later in tourney, think that'll give us best chance to win. If opponents get after our SP's & chase them early (especially in pool play), then think that hurts our chances.

Nightmare scenario: 0-2 in pool play. National seed goes out window.

So-so scenario #1: Win pool play, drop semis to NC State or FSU. If to NC State, we lose national seed to them. If to FSU & they win title, they take the national seed.

Pretty good scenario: Win pool, beat NCSU/FSU. Drop title game or beat a lower seeded team for the title. Will give us a 6-8 national seed.

Dream scenario: Win title, beating UNC or Duke in title game (UNC preferably b/c they have highest RPI). Picking up two RPI top 25 wins to go w/ our overall record and ACC tourney & RS titles, I'd say we'd be a 3-5 national seed.

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Thoughts heading into ACC tourney

For one thing, UVA isn't in our pool.

DO What ????

Can't help the ACC can't figure out their own tiebreakers

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