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YOUR BALANCE
Strength of schedule debate
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Strength of schedule debate


Sep 22, 2018, 9:15 PM

One thing that is sorta odd to me is this attitude that automatically, regardless of anything else, if Clemson goes undefeated, we are automatically in the playoffs.

In order to have an attitude like that, you have to ignore the existence of other teams, and pretend Clemson is the only team that matters. It's not like each team is selected in a vacuum. It's not like earning a grade in a class based on your own performance. There are only 4 spots. Clemson has to be chosen INSTEAD of other teams.

If there are 5 undefeated conference champions, which isn't impossible, and the Clemson has the worst SOS of all of them, and it becomes a national theme for piling on how crappy the ACC is, (which is already starting) then there is a chance we don't get in even at 13-0. Beyond that, there is a chance that a 1 loss team, with a high strength of schedule, jumps us too. The selection committee has proven that the number of losses can be less important than the eye test and strength of schedule.

Unless you are looking at specific scenarios involving other teams, there is no point in just saying "Clemson gets in if we win." If you play musical chairs, you have to find a seat. Regardless of how well you do at musical chairs, you have to actually beat someone else to the seat.

Beyond that, it's not THAT unlikely at all that we slip up and lose a game. Our national championship season involved an inexplicable loss to a team. Strength of schedule has HELPED us before. This year it could be a big burden. Either way, if matters.

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Re: Strength of schedule debate


Sep 22, 2018, 9:19 PM

There’s no debate. If Clemson wins out and especially if they win the ACC championship, there is no way in Heyl we are kept out of the playoffs. Period. We are too big of a contender and we draw in $ through TV ratings.

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This argument ignores all other teams as if they don't exist***


Sep 22, 2018, 9:22 PM



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I really doubt there will be 5 undefeated champs


Sep 22, 2018, 9:27 PM

But if so, I can't imagine Clemson not being selected. Our brand is too strong.

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The definition of awesome!


You really believe the committee would consider brand


Sep 22, 2018, 9:31 PM

over strength of schedule? The committee has said explicitly that it doesn't consider anything from past seasons.

Especially if we have several close games against teams with losing records?

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Yes. Bama got in last year without even


Sep 22, 2018, 9:38 PM

playing for their conference championship. It wasn't their SOS that got them in, it was their brand. A 13-0 Clemson is in over a 13-0 PAC12 champ. 'Cause brand.

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The definition of awesome!


Strength of schedule and eye test.


Sep 22, 2018, 9:40 PM

There isn't a shred of evidence that Bama's brand had anything to do with it. They looked like one of the best 4 teams and their strength of record was in the top 4.

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This a moot debate. There won't be 5


Sep 22, 2018, 9:46 PM

undefeated conference champs. I doubt there will be three undefeated conference champs. Still, if we're one of 5 undefeated champs, I believe we're not only in, but we're no worse than the three seed.

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The definition of awesome!


But what if there is 10 undefeated teams??????***


Sep 22, 2018, 9:49 PM



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There may be several 1 loss teams, and we could be one of


Sep 22, 2018, 9:50 PM

them.

In most scenarios, SOS matters.

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you should worry about it


Sep 22, 2018, 9:58 PM

like you did when we lost a game last year or the year before. Me, I am 100% confident that if we win we are in.

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The funny thing is, I wasn't worried at all when we lost


Sep 22, 2018, 10:03 PM

because I knew our strength of schedule was dynamite. Because I understood how important that was.

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Now you're changing the scenario


Sep 22, 2018, 9:59 PM [ in reply to There may be several 1 loss teams, and we could be one of ]

Stop worrying. Win we're in.

Done

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The definition of awesome!


I think so too. I'm just saying it's not automatic.


Sep 22, 2018, 10:01 PM

A 1-loss team could jump us depending on circumstances. It's absolutely not impossible.

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no team with more losses has ever made it


Sep 22, 2018, 10:05 PM

to the playoffs ahead of a team with less losses

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Now THATS a good point.


Sep 22, 2018, 10:08 PM

The only counter to that I can think of is that we may end up with the worst SOS by an undefeated team in the P5 era. That's what I'm hoping doesn't happen. And if it does, we can overcome it with the eye test.

Again, I believe if we win out we are in.

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Re: Now THATS a good point.


Sep 22, 2018, 10:27 PM

We schedule two SEC out of conference games a year. Like it or not, the colts will be a top 25 team when we play them and A&M will be as well. A Miami or Va Tech will bounce back from early disappointments by the end of season and we will beat them in ACCCG. We win and we are one of top 2 in.

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Re: Now THATS a good point.


Sep 22, 2018, 10:27 PM [ in reply to Now THATS a good point. ]

We schedule two SEC out of conference games a year. Like it or not, the colts will be a top 25 team when we play them and A&M will be as well. A Miami or Va Tech will bounce back from early disappointments by the end of season and we will beat them in ACCCG. We win and we are one of top 2 in.

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Re: Now THATS a good point.


Sep 22, 2018, 10:28 PM [ in reply to Now THATS a good point. ]

We schedule two SEC out of conference games a year. Like it or not, the colts will be a top 25 team when we play them and A&M will be as well. A Miami or Va Tech will bounce back from early disappointments by the end of season and we will beat them in ACCCG. We win and we are one of top 2 in.

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Re: Strength of schedule and eye test.


Sep 22, 2018, 9:50 PM [ in reply to Strength of schedule and eye test. ]

Their strength of schedule prior to the playoffs was 10th. They finished the season 6th.

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Actually it was worse. SOS was 47. I said strength of record


Sep 22, 2018, 9:55 PM

http://www.espn.com/college-football/playoffPicture/_/week/15/year/2017

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Re: Actually it was worse. SOS was 47. I said strength of record


Sep 22, 2018, 10:07 PM

I got SOS from here: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other?date=2017-12-03

I don’t understand the distinction between strength of schedule versus record. How Oklahoma have only the 27th hardest schedule from the perspective of an average FBS team but the most difficult from a top 25 perspective? Clemson and Georgia had a harder SOS and finished with the same record. How can it be reconciled that it was harder for Oklahoma to achieve the same result against an easier schedule?

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I dunno exactly. I'm not big on metrics usually.


Sep 22, 2018, 10:11 PM

SOR is supposedly the % of difficulty it would be to have that record against the competition they faced. So it factors record and SOS as the same time. I guess. I read it last year but forgot the specifics.

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You’re overplaying the brand doesn’t matter hand


Sep 22, 2018, 9:58 PM [ in reply to Strength of schedule and eye test. ]

It does matter, it mattered for Bama last year, and the fact that the committee is more and more ready to throw out terms like “eye test” and “4 best teams” means they intend to be more subjective, not less. Less what you did on the field, like lose late and miss playing in your conf championship vs a team who won their conference title and lost early to a team that made the playoffs. This will make brand more of a factor going forward.

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Re: This argument ignores all other teams as if they don't exist***


Sep 22, 2018, 9:31 PM [ in reply to This argument ignores all other teams as if they don't exist*** ]

You are ignoring the fact that Clemson is not like most teams...We have proven ourselves worthy of playoff contention for 3 years in a row. Why ignore that?

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Because past seasons are not factored in?


Sep 22, 2018, 9:33 PM

Ohio State, Oklahoma, Alabama are also teams that have multiple appearances. Do their's not count? Only ours?

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Re: Because past seasons are not factored in?


Sep 22, 2018, 9:42 PM

If they win there conference, they absolutely deserve to get in. However, based on what we know, who else would make more sense to put into the playoffs if Clemson wins the ACC? Let’s say Bama wins the SEC, OSU wins the big 10 and Oklahoma wins Big 12 and Clemson wins the ACC, who would get in over us?

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Pac 12 champ. Or 1 loss SEC team or Notre Dame.***


Sep 22, 2018, 9:45 PM



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Re: Pac 12 champ. Or 1 loss SEC team or Notre Dame.***


Sep 22, 2018, 9:50 PM

Notre dame plays mostly ACC schools and I don’t think and of the PAC 12 teams can go undefeated. I believe if a pac 12 school goes undefeated and Clemson goes undefeated, Clemson gets in.

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ND SOS would be substantially higher. Look at it.


Sep 22, 2018, 9:56 PM

Same likely true for Pac 12 champ if they go undefeated.

Also multiple teams from SEC possible.

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Re: ND SOS would be substantially higher. Look at it.


Sep 22, 2018, 10:04 PM

There’s tons of schedules from teams that are sub par compared to others. But, if a team goes undefeated and wins the conference, in my opinion that team passes the “eye test”. Look at Georgia’s schedule.
Its really no better than ours, but if they win the SEC and beats let’s say Auburn with 2 losses, and we go undefeated, you know they would get in over us. Why? Because of the brand.

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Re: Strength of schedule debate


Sep 22, 2018, 9:25 PM [ in reply to Re: Strength of schedule debate ]

TV ratings? I’d say out of the current top 10, Clemson is probably 8-10. But being in the last 3 years will help with benefit of the doubt for sure.

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Man up. 4 games in and many teams will lose in the coming weeks


Sep 22, 2018, 9:21 PM

Go Tigers!!!!


Message was edited by: AThomas®


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Is manning up counting on someone else to lose?


Sep 22, 2018, 9:25 PM

That seems odd.

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Teams lose every week.That's the beauty of


Sep 22, 2018, 9:52 PM

College football-the unexpected! Go Tigers!

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Re: Strength of schedule debate


Sep 22, 2018, 9:22 PM

Wow, been looking for a logical fan all day. Finally found you. Couldn’t agree more. The B1G got blasted last week, by all their big dogs are still well in contention. I never really trusted BC as a true heavyweight, but VT shocked me today. They really took themselves out of the running and IMO are the second best ACC team. I still do think things shake out for the Tigers. Just win, and you’re in.

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Clemson is the only team that matters***


Sep 22, 2018, 9:23 PM



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Well unless you are the selection committee that doesnt help***


Sep 22, 2018, 9:23 PM



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Re: Well unless you are the selection committee that doesnt help***


Sep 22, 2018, 9:35 PM

Dude all those scenarios are useless if Clemson goes 13-0. In that case we will be in the CFP. Case closed. Door shut. Book finished. Whatever you want to call it. 13-0 we are in. 12-1 and your scenario becomes much more viable. That’s at this point. Would you say the same if Fl State beats FL, GA loses to GT , Louisville beats KY ? Just another scenario.

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Another example of some1 not considering other teams.


Sep 22, 2018, 9:36 PM

You are just thinking about Clemson. That's not how it works.

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whether eSECpn and the rest of cfb world realize it or not


Sep 22, 2018, 9:32 PM

the acc and the sec are pretty much identical. the sec is alabama and a bunch of also rans, wheile the acc is clemson and a bunch of also rans.

a lot of talking heads and especially the coots like to talk about the lack of strength in or schedule simply because we play in the acc. i for one get tired of hearing how great bama is, when they aren't that different from us.

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Re: whether eSECpn and the rest of cfb world realize it or not


Sep 22, 2018, 10:21 PM

The SEC is the same? So their 2nd highest ranked team lost to an 0-3 FBS team this year? Their 3rd highest ranked team got blown out by an 0-3 team on the same day? So who from the ACC outside of Clemson would you put up against Georgia? How about Auburn or LSU? LSU already beat Miami pretty easily btw.

I would have agreed with you any of the past few years, but the ACC outside of Clemson is looking really bad right now. That’s not based on opinion, that’s based on the results on the field OOC.

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I think Clemson has built enough clout the last few seasons


Sep 22, 2018, 9:32 PM

to warrant getting into the playoff with an undefeated record, regardless of the ACC having a down year. Clemson is a household name now in college football and that name counts for something to the playoff committee even though they'd never admit it. We've had a lot of hype and the committee knows we're talented. As long as we win out, I don't see them choosing other teams instead of Clemson.

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Re: I think Clemson has built enough clout the last few seasons


Sep 22, 2018, 9:35 PM

That is not even factored in to the decision. They publish the factors of the decision. These things are debated each year.

Past seasons are not even considered at all.

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So they SAY...***


Sep 22, 2018, 10:12 PM



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I think some of you guys talking about brand and tv ratings


Sep 22, 2018, 9:42 PM



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Exactly right. BCS era is clearly over.***


Sep 22, 2018, 9:46 PM



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There are very, very few undefeated or even one-loss teams...


Sep 22, 2018, 9:47 PM

by the end of the season. I mean, two seasons ago there was a big stink about a 2-loss team not getting in.
I don’t remember many undefeated teams at all since the playoff started, with the exception of us one year and Bama another.
There are several top 25 teams that have lost today and more that may lose by the end of the night. And that is what happens every year.
I do think that it could get interesting if we lose a game...but I also think there will not be enough undefeated or 1 loss teams standing to make a difference. It’s hard to do it...in any conference, which is why so few do it.
Many of the ‘contenders’ will be 10-2 or 9-3 by the end of November

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I agree, but then the 1-loss comparison may matter too.


Sep 22, 2018, 9:49 PM

If we have several 1 loss teams, Clemson will likely have one of the worst sos.

So it still matters.

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So far, in the playoff era,...


Sep 22, 2018, 10:15 PM

There have not even been ‘several’ one loss teams in a given year.
That being said, going undefeated would be preferred this season.
If we get to November and there’s a bunch of undefeated or one loss teams left, I’ll be very surprised.

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LOL there has never been 5 undefeated conference champions


Sep 22, 2018, 9:48 PM

not even close

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And we have only been undefeated once in 35+ years.


Sep 22, 2018, 9:59 PM

Sos matters either way.

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Re: Strength of schedule debate


Sep 22, 2018, 10:01 PM

Alabama blowing out TA&M today does not help.

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"Stalwart universities—Harvard, Princeton, Yale—most certainly offer status. The Citadel offers character. "


The POC put two SEC teams in the playoff last year.


Sep 22, 2018, 10:19 PM

The same excuse they used to give Bama a seed is how they will justify putting us in. We have credential of three straight playoff, we pass the eyetest better than anyone with TL behind center and everyone knows our D-line is second to none. Oh yeah, that Trophy we took home by beating Bama two years ago.

Those factors will negate at least three teams being chosen above us. They may still be pushing Bama but there's no way they'd take a B1G, PAC or Big 12 over us if we go undefeated.

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????Gets it


Sep 22, 2018, 10:23 PM

Nm

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Alabama got in last year with 1 loss and an unremarkable


Sep 22, 2018, 10:19 PM

resume.

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"All those 'Fire Brownell' guys can kiss it." -Joseph Girard III

"Everybody needs to know that Coach Brownell is arguably the best coach to come through Clemson." -PJ Hall


If we finish undefeated, we won't be lower than #2.


Sep 22, 2018, 10:23 PM

I don't see how you can argue otherwise.

Who else do you think will also be an undefeated conference champion? Do you seriously think that there will be four other undefeated conference champions, all of whom would be considered better than us?

Do you think a one loss team would get in over us? I find that very hard to believe.

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"All those 'Fire Brownell' guys can kiss it." -Joseph Girard III

"Everybody needs to know that Coach Brownell is arguably the best coach to come through Clemson." -PJ Hall


Until an undefeated P5 team gets left out, I ain't concerned***


Sep 22, 2018, 10:37 PM



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If you look at AP top 25 now


Sep 22, 2018, 10:56 PM

You’ll see teams that already had 1 loss, you’ll see teams that lost today, you’ll see teams that are playing each other right now, and others that will play each other later, you’ll see teams (such as UCF) that if they remained undefeated could not pass us up. An undefeated Clemson with a ACC title will be in. 1 loss maybe not, and this year probably not. But undefeated and we are in.

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I am one who believes us going undefeated=playoff...


Sep 23, 2018, 1:06 AM

but my logic doesn't ignore other teams... my logic ignores the idea that every Power 5 conference will finish with a 13-0 champ. It just isn't going to happen.

I do think it's very possible every conference finishes with a champ who is 12-1 or better. And if we're 12-1, that's when our sorry SOS can come back to bite us.

BUT, hopefully 'Cuse, NCST, and Duke can keep winning. If we play a 10-2 Miami in Charlotte it'll help, and Texas A&M may finish in the top-25, too.

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