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Orange Blooded [2697]
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Here is absolute scientific evidence we'll win (and maffs)
Jan 3, 2020, 4:51 PM
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I looked at every score for every game Clemson and LSU played and took the difference and average of how much each scored and allowed.
For example, LSU beat Ga. So. 55-3. GS scoring O was 28.2 and scoring D was 28.2 That means LSU scored 26.8 points more than GS allowed and allowed 25.2 points less than GS scored.
Anyway,
for the full season
LSU held opponents an average of 8.79 under their scoring average. Three teams, TX, Vandy and Ole Miss scoring MORE on LSU than their season average.
LSU scored an average of 22.86 over their opponents defensive average. LSU scored more than their opponents average in every game
Clemson held opponents an average of 18.14 under their scoring average. No team scored as much or more on Clemson than their season average.
Clemson scored an average of 18.29 over their opponents defensive average. Clemson scored more than their opponents average in every game except UNC (21 to 23.7)
So if you take LSU scoring average and deduct the average CU holds opponents (48.9 - 18.14), LSU scores 30.76
If you take Clemson defensive average and add the average LSU outscores opponents (11.5 + 22.86), LSU scores 34.36
Add the two together and divide by 2 and LSU scores 32.56, or 33 points
If you take Clemson scoring average and deduct the average LSU holds opponents (45.3 - 8.79), Clemson scores 36.51
If you take LSU defensive average and add the average CU outscores opponents (21.6 + 18.29), Clemson scores 39.89
Add the two together and divide by 2 and Clemson scores 38.20, or 38 points
Therefore, the indisputable final score will Clemson 38 - 33 over LSU.
You're Welcome, and Go Tigers!
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110%er [9028]
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Re: Here is absolute scientific evidence we'll win (and maffs)
Jan 3, 2020, 4:59 PM
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You're not accounting for the mythical $EC talent difference and this is a lot like coot math.
Thanks for the effort. It was seriously a fun read.
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Associate AD [808]
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Re: Here is absolute scientific evidence we'll win (and maffs)
Jan 3, 2020, 5:01 PM
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That's impressive. Did you do this same maff before the OSU game?
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Orange Blooded [2697]
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Re: Here is absolute scientific evidence we'll win (and maffs)
Jan 3, 2020, 5:03 PM
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Let's just pretend I did and it came out 29 - 23.
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Orange Blooded [3338]
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I really am curious what that outcome would be.***
Jan 3, 2020, 5:24 PM
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Orange Blooded [2697]
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Re: I really am curious what that outcome would be.***
Jan 3, 2020, 5:36 PM
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I ran it real quick, and backing out the OSU/CU game so it would calculate prior to the contest, it came out exactly a tie, 32.42 to 32.42.
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110%er [7191]
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Re: Here is absolute scientific evidence we'll win (and maffs)
Jan 3, 2020, 5:14 PM
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Sorry , but you left out the intangibles, such as injuries during the game(Remember Mike Williams in 2015), odd bounces of the football, judgment calls that don't go your way, player ejections and crowd noise just to name a few. Besides average scoring differences being divided by 2 don't work. Besides I don't ever recall scoring margins that end in .76,or.14.
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CU Guru [1163]
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Maff is our friend.... embrace the maff
Jan 3, 2020, 5:30 PM
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Nm
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Orange Blooded [3338]
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Their defense the last four or five games
Jan 3, 2020, 5:29 PM
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has been better than those average. That should count for something. And, they have added a few defensive players who weren't available. And another one for the game against us. I can't remember the name, but supposedly he is very good. A linebacker, I think...
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Mascot [21]
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Re: Here is absolute scientific evidence we'll win (and maffs)
Jan 3, 2020, 5:30 PM
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this is great maffs. if you felt inclined, you could also provide a confidence interval to account for some randomness.
for instance, while clemson might hold teams 18.28 points below their scoring average, the standard deviation of this amount is 6.8. lsu's std. dev. is 14.1
assuming a normal distribution, a 95% confidence interval would lead you to believe, on average, clemson will score somewhere between 29 and 44 points (45.3 - 8.59 - 1.96 * 14.1 / sqrt(13), 45.3 - 8.59 + 1.96 * 14.1 / sqrt(13)), and lsu will score between 27 and 34 points (48.9 - 18.28 - 1.96 * 6.8 / sqrt(13), 48.9 - 18.28 + 1.96 * 6.8 / sqrt(13)).
CU: 29-44 LSU: 27-34
1.96 is the z-score for a 95% confidence interval. square root of 13 because we have 13 observations, not including wofford and northwestern state
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CU Guru [1163]
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More Maffs ????
Jan 3, 2020, 5:33 PM
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Nm
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All-In [40929]
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math checks out
Jan 3, 2020, 5:31 PM
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Tigers win!
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Orange Blooded [2965]
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Re: Here is absolute scientific evidence we'll win (and maffs)
Jan 3, 2020, 7:12 PM
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That works for me! It actually is as good as anybody else’s analysis or guess.
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Varsity [231]
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Re: Here is absolute scientific evidence we'll win (and maffs)
Jan 4, 2020, 1:07 AM
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That works for me! It actually is as good as anybody else’s analysis or guess.
Suspect Guido's math has a better track record.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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