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All-In [49613]
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Joined: 12/10/98
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The road from here...uphill, but doable
Feb 20, 2014, 2:18 PM
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I was hoping at this point that the guys would stand 8-5 in the conference ... but you can't control who gets the flu, and a couple of clanked free throws at ND. Such is life.
Still, the Tigers have avoided the conference morass and still have a slugger's chance at the Dance. We could stand some help with a few programs in a similar spot, but we'll focus on those guys as the weeks winnow.
On the road: Two winnable road games coming up, at GTech and at Wake. The Jackets haven't beaten anyone on the sunny side of .500 in the ACC, and Wake has a sub-.500 record at home this year. Take these two, and Clemson would have a record 5 ACC road wins in a season, standing at 9-6 with the home stand.
In the meantime, the teams bracketing us in the standings, Pitt and Maryland, have a couple of tougher games. Pitt hosts FSU and Maryland faces a pissed-off Syracuse. If they fall, Clemson enters the home stand tied with Pitt and 1.5 games up on the Terps.
The last 3: Maryland comes into Clemson with nearly a week's rest after the Syracuse game. The Terps win when they're running. Hold them under 65 and all is well. I think we can do that. 19-6, 10-6 and we're back on the bubble. With this win, there's no way we'd finish lower than a tie for 6th, holding the tiebreaker on Maryland.
Miami: This will be the Canes' third straight road game (after UVa and NC State the previous Saturday) and I'm betting they will be leg weary. That makes this a win, 20-6 11-6 in conference.
Pitt: Assuming Pitt stumbled once ... just once ... along the way, we'll both come in at 11-6. Winner gets 5th place and a bit of comfort for Dance hopes. The loser has to chew through at least two rounds of the tourney. Frankly, we looked like crap at Pitt a month ago. Have we learned anything since then?
That game, to me is the one that determines our fate. It would be the third Top 50 win of the season and stick a dagger in one of the teams challenging us for an at-large spot.
It also sends us into the tourney with a day of rest to face the winner of the sure-to-be-epic VTech-GTech play-in game. That gives us UNC or Duke in the second round. At that point, even if we fell, with a 12-6 ACC record, first-round tourney win and 22-6 overall, I like our chances to go Dancing.
All we have to do is do what we know we can.
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CU Guru [1579]
TigerPulse: 95%
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we never make it easy
Feb 20, 2014, 2:28 PM
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Do we?
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All-In [49613]
TigerPulse: 100%
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When you think where we could be right now....
Feb 20, 2014, 2:51 PM
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...it's boggling. We certainly should have beaten Auburn. should have gotten that win at ND, and we were just a flu bug away from beating Virginia.
But, ya gotta get up and back into the fight.
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CU Medallion [64590]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 88994
Joined: 3/27/01
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The losses to Auburn and Arkansas....
Feb 20, 2014, 3:13 PM
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are currently the two biggest strikes on Clemson's Dance card. A win at Notre Dame or especially at home against UVA would have off-set that somewhat.
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All-In [49613]
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True...but win out and we'll have an RPI near 40
Feb 20, 2014, 3:35 PM
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...which would offset even the SEC millstone.
Lose to Pitt and we're down around 60 (depending on other teams around us) and I don't think that'll get us on board.
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CU Medallion [64590]
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Agreed...we'd likely need a win or two in the ACCT***
Feb 20, 2014, 3:45 PM
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All-In [29036]
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We *might* be able to survive 1 more regular season loss
Feb 20, 2014, 4:03 PM
[ in reply to True...but win out and we'll have an RPI near 40 ] |
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But, it CAN'T be against Pitt, and we'd have to win 2 in the tourney.
Beating Pitt is absolutely mandatory to get in as an at large (barring am appearance in the ACC tournament finals) as it would be the best win on the schedule.
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CU Medallion [64590]
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A loss against Wake, GT or Miami would be devestating...
Feb 20, 2014, 4:12 PM
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to out NCAA Tournament hopes. The selection committee would view any one of those as another bad loss.
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Legend [19610]
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Joined: 9/5/02
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The loss to those SEC teasm really hurt our resume'.
Feb 20, 2014, 2:37 PM
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Especially that loss to Allbarn. That will haunt us on selction Sunday, IMO.
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All-In [49613]
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Yeah if Auburn had won last night....
Feb 20, 2014, 2:50 PM
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...it would have take a lot fo the sting out of that loss.
But they couldn't help themselves....or us.
In the end, I think winning 7 in a row at the end of the year would trump that miserable December loss. At least I hope so.
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All-In [29036]
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I'm still shaking my head
Feb 20, 2014, 3:23 PM
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Tie game 20 seconds left and the Auburn guy just decided to intentionally foul
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All-In [49613]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Just ran the RPI wizard for our season...
Feb 20, 2014, 3:39 PM
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Had we beaten Auburn, we'd be in the upper 50s RPI now, with a golden opportunity to set the table.
But ... we didn't.
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Legend [17626]
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Joined: 10/13/08
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Regardless, this team has overachieved.
Feb 20, 2014, 4:03 PM
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Many of the faithful were just hoping for an NIT bid at the start of the season.
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