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CU Medallion [55747]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 35292
Joined: 11/30/98
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Trump is leading, according to these folks.
Sep 20, 2020, 1:52 PM
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TL;DR - this company uses non-traditional means to poll people about voting and they have been 3/3 on elections so far in 2020. Just like in 2016, their latest shows Trump is actually leading, despite what the mainstream polls are saying.
From a personal standpoint, I do not like Trump and cannot vote for Biden, BUT the best thing for the country would be an inarguable blow out by either side. Because the 2000 election was bad enough and that was in "normal", ####, that was in PRE-9/11 times.
https://www.invisibly.com/research/pulse-on-presidency-sept-15
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110%er [7207]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 9432
Joined: 12/18/13
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Great, now I'm going to have to vote.
Sep 20, 2020, 1:59 PM
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I was really hoping it wouldn't be close in VA.
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Heisman Winner [119698]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 54467
Joined: 6/24/09
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2016 was a solid win,
Sep 20, 2020, 2:03 PM
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304 to 227...
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All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
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Sample is self-selected, it looks like.
Sep 20, 2020, 2:23 PM
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As opposed to randomly selected.
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CU Medallion [57089]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 39684
Joined: 11/12/04
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Re: Sample is self-selected, it looks like.
Sep 20, 2020, 3:34 PM
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it may be effectively capturing the enthusiasm gap that way. We'll see if the gambit of snuffing RBG on the first day of early voting helps with the Dems GOTV. As The Washington Post put it, her death should be "galvanizing."
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Hall of Famer [20540]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11683
Joined: 10/15/02
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Re: Sample is self-selected, it looks like.
Sep 20, 2020, 4:15 PM
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So now the Dems "snuffed" RBG?
Good God, how many of you QAnons are out there?
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Legend [18023]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30155
Joined: 9/9/06
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It's becoming the base of the GOP and it's dangerous.***
Sep 20, 2020, 4:39 PM
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All-In [48078]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 49059
Joined: 5/16/04
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Re: It's becoming the base of the GOP and it's dangerous.***
Sep 20, 2020, 4:41 PM
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It's nuts how almost mainstream it is getting.
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Legend [18023]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30155
Joined: 9/9/06
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The hope is that if Trump loses badly it'll snuff it out...
Sep 20, 2020, 4:44 PM
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but I think it's just as likely to make it gain influence and power and if that happens we're going to have fond memories of the current state of politics, lol.
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CU Medallion [55747]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 35292
Joined: 11/30/98
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as long as the internet exists, it will fuel this kind of
Sep 21, 2020, 9:53 AM
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crazy.
That's why we should all be concerned about the limits of free speech and who gets to say what.
We live in a time when the tech geek overlords who have no semblance of interpersonal skills or emotional intelligence (looking at you Zuck) are determining what can be said, based mostly on how much money they can make.
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CU Medallion [55747]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 35292
Joined: 11/30/98
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That is another big factor - some 'Pubs LOVE DJT, while
Sep 20, 2020, 4:18 PM
[ in reply to Re: Sample is self-selected, it looks like. ] |
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many Dems simply want DJT out. I have not heard one person say they are enthusiastic about Biden.
Here's the thing - the ONLY reason Biden is the nominee is his pull with the Black voters. There was more enthusiasm for Yang, the gay dude, certainly for Bernie and Warren than there is for Biden. But his pull as Obama's Veep got him the Black vote and that was that.
Such as shame because I think a lot of independent voters would be more interested in any of those I mention compared to Biden. The gay dude would KILL Trump in a debate. Yang's ideas are awesome and make sense for everyone. Bernie is a commie but dang he is great on the stump and he would eviscerate Trump in a debate. Even Warren with her plans is more intriguing that sleepy Joe. Trump would likely kick her butt up one side and down the other in a debate, but at least she is cogent. I pity Biden in the debates. I truly do.
Anyhoo. Get your popcorn early. First debate is a week from Tuesday.
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Legend [19610]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 16899
Joined: 9/5/02
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The most predictive is the primary model.
Sep 20, 2020, 4:39 PM
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The model has picked the winner 25 out of 27 elections dating back to 1912. It missed in 1960 and 2000(though it was technically correct in the popular vote).
http://primarymodel.com/ The Primary Model primary model is a scientific model of forecasting election results. The Primary Model forecasts presidential elections with great accuracy. Author of The Primary Model, Helmut Norpoth. Political Scientist and Professor at Stony Brook University.
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All-In [48078]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 49059
Joined: 5/16/04
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Re: The most predictive is the primary model.
Sep 20, 2020, 4:47 PM
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That's predicting an absolute blowout.
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Lot o points [155901]
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Posts: 65819
Joined: 5/6/13
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When did your vote change?
Sep 21, 2020, 9:55 AM
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I could swear that about a month ago you said you'd be voting for Biden? Am I mistaken?
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