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Legend [16211]
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: Herd immunity?
Jul 13, 2020, 7:08 PM
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Never was gonna happen anyway as it requires 70%-80% of all folks to have had it. Well maybe we can reach that if we continue to fling open the doors to all activities. Yeah, some folks do not produce any antibodies too.
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Oculus Spirit [93579]
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That number comes from traditional vaccines.
Jul 13, 2020, 7:26 PM
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70+% of the population must be vaccinated to stop the spread.
We don't know what the level of infections have to be to reach herd immunity in a pandemic. If you're interested, the following is a really good read and will give you some insight into how complicated and difficult calculating the level of infections to reach herd immunity can be in a pandemic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/
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Oculus Spirit [93579]
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'May,' is poor science.
Jul 13, 2020, 7:10 PM
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However, it's allowed if it makes suits your political position.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: 'May,' is poor science.
Jul 13, 2020, 7:13 PM
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88, best current science on this, which admittedly is not very dang good at all, says immunity is unknown at best and may not be at all.
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All-TigerNet [11623]
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Stop with the what ifs.....
Jul 13, 2020, 7:27 PM
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SARS anti-bodies last over 3 years. MERS is in the 1-3 year range as well.
No one has been reinfected with COVID-19. We're 8 months in to COVID-19 and that shows that anti-bodies last at least that long.
That article is junk science and opinions. They need to stop publishing doom and gloom until they have real information.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: Stop with the what ifs.....
Jul 13, 2020, 7:41 PM
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https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/23/7/17-0310_article MERS-CoV Antibody Responses 1 Year after Symptom Onset, South Korea, 2015 We investigated the kinetics of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) neutralizing and spike protein antibody titers over the course of 1 year in 11 patients who were confirmed by reverse transcription PCR to have been infected during the outbreak in South Korea in 2015. Robust antibody responses were detected in all survivors who had severe disease; responses remained detectable, albeit with some waning, for <1 year. The duration of viral RNA detection (but not viral load) in sputum significantly correlated with the antibody response magnitude. The MERS S1 ELISA antibody titers correlated well with the neutralizing antibody response. Antibody titers in 4 of 6 patients who had mild illness were undetectable even though most had evidence of pneumonia. This finding implies that MERS-CoV seroepidemiologic studies markedly underestimate the extent of mild and asymptomatic infection. Obtaining convalescent-phase plasma with high antibody titers to treat MERS will be challenging.
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Legend [16646]
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You may be correct, but not
Jul 13, 2020, 7:42 PM
[ in reply to Stop with the what ifs..... ] |
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Sure how your thesis is on the mark. Is eight months sufficient to suggest reinfection isn't possible? How does it prove antibodies last 'at least that long'...when most never had -19 to begin with? Lastly...who can say with certainty, at this point, that some of the new cases aren't reinfections, whereby the patient was asymptomatic the first time around...heck, even this time around?
Too early for 'absolutes'...the learning, such as it is, will continue...although it will NEVER keep pace with conjecture! 
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Rock Defender [53]
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CU Medallion [59969]
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Re: Stop with the what ifs.....
Jul 13, 2020, 8:23 PM
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3 out of 330 million people. I like those odds.
Just like I like my odds to survive. I am more likely to die of a violent crime in this City.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Preaching to the choir lol
Jul 13, 2020, 8:29 PM
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Hall of Famer [24632]
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All-TigerNet [12976]
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Re: Herd immunity?
Jul 13, 2020, 7:32 PM
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If your herd wears BLM shirts, they are immune from prosecution...
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Herd immunity?
Jul 13, 2020, 7:44 PM
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Doesn't sound like herd immunity will ever happen.
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Legend [17216]
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Consensus will emerge although it may take a few years.
Jul 13, 2020, 8:34 PM
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Researchers are publishing preliminary info. to aid future research. Media is like a salivating dog - drooling on the furniture.
Too early to call on this one.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Consensus will emerge although it may take a few years.
Jul 13, 2020, 8:46 PM
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Legend [16211]
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Re: Consensus will emerge although it may take a few years.
Jul 13, 2020, 9:06 PM
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There is scant media coverage of this study at the moment. Don't know much about "The Hill" or its political leanings, but it's the second reference I've seen on this in the last week.
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Legend [17216]
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This virus has been around for 4-5 months. A key question...
Jul 13, 2020, 9:18 PM
[ in reply to Re: Consensus will emerge although it may take a few years. ] |
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for “herd immunity” is how long do the antibodies “remain” after infection. Data regarding length of time antibodies remain and can provide immunity from a second infection is obviously limited to the length of time from initial infection. I can only surmise that most data is collected on the infected patients and less data collected on recovered patients.
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Legend [16211]
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Not fear mongering or stating any absolutes here.
Jul 13, 2020, 9:02 PM
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That's the trouble. Novel coronavirus at hand. New. Nobody really knows a whole lot yet, still; it continues to be anybody's, and apparently everybody's, personal take. This study could be as debunked as HCQ in a bit, hopefully so. If there's any moral to the story it's simply be cautious with assumptions and expectations, and be careful with yourself and others through it.
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Oculus Spirit [97634]
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