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Topic: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now
Replies: 57   Last Post: Sep 25, 2016 10:39 PM by: dmdtiger12
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Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now

emoji_events [15]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 4:37 PM
 

Folks, Louisville is #1 in the country - by a mile - in total offense. They are generating a truly staggering 682.0 yards per game, along with 63.5 points per game.

Clemson in contrast ranks just #53 in points per game at 33.5, and our O ranks a fairly pedestrian #47 overall in yards per game at 452.5.

Our defense is better. We rank #3 overall in total D at 218.5 yards per game. The problem here is Louisville has been almost as good, ranking #13 overall at 278.3 yards per game. They're also a 3-4 "odd front" defense that for whatever reason has so troubled Clemson's offense over the years, and they disguise their coverages extremely well, another thing that's given Clemson's offense troubles.

If there's a chance in this game, IMHO, it's that Clemson's front seven bottles up Lamar Jackson and stops him from running around. Marshall limited him (some) early by doing just that, and for awhile, anyhow, Jackson showed some poise and decision-making issues, throwing an ill-advised pick and missing some throws badly before he finally calmed down and started making enough plays with his feet he was able to get back into that groove we've seen from him. If Clemson's going to win this game, it's going to be precisely because we stayed gap-sound, kept Jackson bottled up, and forced him to beat our D from the pocket. Our D may - may! - be good enough to do that; early returns against GT were certainly positive. But we're going to have to execute better on O than we have been; we're going to have to finish our chances in the Red Zone, stop dropping passes, and Deshaun Watson, quite frankly, is going to have to throw the ball better than he has thus far this year.

The sad fact is, Deshaun Watson hasn't really been that good this year. Drops aren't helping him but he's still just 90 of 150 (60%), and he's thrown 9 TD's to 4 INT's. His overall passer efficiency (QBR) is 130.2, good for 80th - eightieth! - overall in the country. That ain't woeful, but it certainly is markedly below how he performed last year. In terms of 2016 form, despite Watson's offseason accolades, he really hasn't been in Lamar Jackson's zip code as a player this year. His deep ball has been particularly bad; his "explosive" plays of 20+ have dropped to nearly nonexistent.

If we're going to beat Louisville, Watson needs to start hitting those passes again. He certainly can.

But make no mistake: in this one, based on current form, Clemson's the underdog Saturday night. We certainly have the talent to win this game, but the Tigers are going to have to play, by far, their best game of the year to do it. Death Valley is going to have to show up, represent, and be loud, and our team and our crowd need to understand: we're up against, statistically, the hottest team in college football right now, and it's going to take an incredibly focused effort to walk away with the W. The Cardinals are in some rare form thus far.

We win this one, I really like our chances to make the playoffs. In fact it's entirely possible we may not see another team this good the rest of the year.


Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 4:39 PM
 

Sounds like bulletin board material to me .

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Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:07 PM
 

No bulletin board those are the facts. Louisville is playing much better than Clemson. Thank God for BV because the offense and staff has lost their way this year. I hope we fond our offense if not it will be ugly.


Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now

[3]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 4:42 PM
 

Except we're favored by people who are a lot smarter than us


Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 4:46 PM
 

We are favored by oddsmakers who entice the public to place money on games. Not exactly the same thing.

What's holding the line down is pedigree. Louisville doesn't have much of one in football.

I would remind you we were also favored versus FSU in 2013. This feels like that.


Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:00 PM
 

So bottling up Jackson and forcing him to beat us in the pocket is key. When I think of bottling up a QB, I think of being disciplined.

When defending the option (Gtech) you have to be disciplined right? I thought we did pretty well defending them.

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Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:10 PM
 

> So bottling up Jackson and forcing him to beat us in
> the pocket is key. When I think of bottling up a QB,
> I think of being disciplined.
>
> When defending the option (Gtech) you have to be
> disciplined right? I thought we did pretty well
> defending them.

I think so. Marshall tried it and actually had some early joy against him. Jackson looked kind of rattled, threw some uncharacteristic - and REALLY UGLY - passes, launched a blind prayer up deep that ended up being picked.

He finally got his feet going when Marshall whiffed on outside contain, he chained together some first downs, and voila, his confidence was back. Started flinging away again.

The legs seem to feed the wolf with him, in the words of Doc Walker. Jackson's definitely improved as a pure passer, but is he a good enough pocket passer - yet - to beat Clemson with his arm alone if we do to him what we did to Justin Thomas last week? Granted, Petrino's vertical passing game is an ENTIRELY different animal than GT's, but still, if you don't let Jackson run, might he hit that metaphorical "wall" you sometimes see running QB's hit when they can't run? Dunno. Would like to see.


Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:38 PM
 

So I've got a question. Between this year and last year, who have we played with QBs that can run and how did they do?

It's hard to compare last year to this year, but there was Baker Mayfield. We did well defending him. UNC qb had under 100 rushing last year.

Obviously it's hard to compare these QBs and last years defense to this years. But my point is, in general I think Brent does a great job game planning for mobile QBs.

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Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:50 PM
 

Except FSU was favored in that game in 2013.

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FSU was favored that year. It was a fairly small line


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:11 PM
 

up until game day and then the sharps just started pounding FSU before kickoff. I got really concerned when the line moved like 4 points in ~6 hours. I want to say it was up to around FSU -8 by kickoff.

2020 white level member

wow....

emoji_events [9]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 4:45 PM
 

that was one of the most rambling garbage posts ive ever read on here.


Re: wow....

[2]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:06 PM
 

Man, I've read a lot of posts on this site and this one isn't even in the top 50% of the worst ever. In fact, there are a lot of good points there. Watson has been average at best. Some of this could be a little bit of sandbagging to leave Louisville very little to look at on film...but we haven't even done a great job executing the plays we have used. I think we can beat Louisville, but it will take much better effort and execution than we have seen so far.


Re: wow....

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:14 PM
 

> Man, I've read a lot of posts on this site and this
> one isn't even in the top 50% of the worst ever. In
> fact, there are a lot of good points there. Watson
> has been average at best. Some of this could be a
> little bit of sandbagging to leave Louisville very
> little to look at on film...but we haven't even done
> a great job executing the plays we have used. I think
> we can beat Louisville, but it will take much better
> effort and execution than we have seen so far.

No worries. Homers mislike facts.

I actually think we could pull the shocker, and if it happens, it starts with our defensive front.

The upside of this Louisville squad is scary, though, if they get rolling. Not sure if we're going to see Clemson put the young upstarts in their place...or if we're going to see a new power emerge.

That's kind of the fun of college football.


why would it be a "Shocker" to you if we won???


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:37 PM
 

Are you one of those bandwaggoners....you are arent you. a fairweather fan...when the going get tough you get going....shame


Quozzel - 14 years on the site

[2]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:02 PM
 

and 100% pulse.

Gotta be a band-wagoner.


Quozzel is none of those things.***


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:11 PM
 



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Re: wow....

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:31 PM
 

Great post, I thought.


Some just don't get it.
#21


Won't be a shocker there bud...we roll these guys like cheap chronic

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 9:43 PM
 

Lay em down an yackem smackem!

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Re: wow....

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:18 PM
 

Ha-ha. Care to elaborate on what was incorrect or garbage in that post? I don't think you will be able to.


no it wasnt..he used facts..


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:44 PM
 

fact is at the moment they are playing better than we are..we have to bring our A+ game saturday to win


Re: no it wasnt..he used facts..


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:51 PM
 

Hard to say they are playing better if we haven't played any of the same teams, that's why rankings doesn't mean crap in September.

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Re: wow....


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 7:06 PM
 

That's all Quozzle does

2020 student level member

Brad Brownell: more losses than any other coach in school history.


Quozzel's posts are smart and always on


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 10:23 PM
 

point...if you disagree with his points, then provide counter points instead of attacking (which is against this forum rules, btw)

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Re: wow....


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 10:38 PM
 

?? I thought it was a pretty solid and factually accurate breakdown. What's so wrong with it?

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Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:01 PM
 

No.


Outside of FSU, UL hasn't played anyone


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:10 PM
 

so those national rankings don't mean anything to me.

Basically they've played ONE game, the biggest home game in school history. Yeah, they looked #### good in that one game against a RS Freshman QB and a beat up defense, but I'm not ready to just hand them the win based on that alone. Jackson has never seen an environment like he will on Saturday night.

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here is your facts^^^


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:38 PM
 

ty


we havent either.***


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:45 PM
 




We've played three teams better than the second


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:10 PM
 

best team they've played, one in a hostile atmosphere.

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Admitting they are playing better than us isn't


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:14 PM
 

"handing them the win."

2020 white level member

Please don't use the "he has never seen an

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 9:45 PM
 

enviroment like this" line. The last time we were saying that towards a QB, Winston lit us up like a Christmas tree.


Sorry dude, if Seckinger doesn't cough that first one up


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 9:52 PM
 

it would have been a different game. That sucked all life out of DV and the crowd was never a factor.
Come Sat, we're gonna punk that little 180lb Buckwheat back to The Little Rascals.

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My God man what a drawn out doom and gloom

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:21 PM
 

Listening to you ,I'd think we were 0-4 and had a coach that couldn't even win at Florida.


Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:27 PM
 

Pretty much agree with this post in its entirety..
Other than..our D is absolutely good enough ..that's not a maybe ..

As long as our offense doesn't dig a hole for the defense with multiple 3 and outs ..
L Jackson's decision making is absolutely suspect ..if he's pressured..

I think Watson has been pressing offensively because of the drops and our lack of running game..
We need to remember our screen game..and up the tempo.. If Watson can get in a rhythm early ..look out Louisville


Definitely gotta be a 4 quarter effort.


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:43 PM
 

We know our D can be up to task, but we need to have the offense clicking. If our offense can get a rhythm going, & our defense continues its strong play, this game will belong to the Tigers. If we don't get the offense clicking, then gotta wonder how much is too much to ask of the defense.

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Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:37 PM
 

Sounds like Louisville has been over achieving! That's probably why Vegas is taking the better team at home.

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Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 9:36 PM
 

> Sounds like Louisville has been over achieving!
> That's probably why Vegas is taking the better team
> at home.

Isn't Clemson favored by 2.5? Given that the home team usually gets 3 points, it's pretty much a pick em game no?

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Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:40 PM
 

This is very cootish..playing the game on paper and not the field..when will people ever learn??

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It's a fair assessment


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:04 PM
 

And all we have to go by until they kick off....

Defense is the key. DEs need to not crash 100% of the time (like it seems FSU's did).

#1 S&P Defense vs #1 S&P Offense.

Something's gotta give.

I'll go semi-homer, and say that having the better defense and being at home gives us the slight edge.


Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:44 PM
 

Unfortunately, your post is right on the money. We won the game against GT with our defense but our offense continues to leave opportunity after opportunity after opportunity on the field. Maybe all the off-season accolades have taken a toll on Watson because he doesn't look like the same QB as last season. The second half at GT was just a nothing half of offense.


Reality is they haven't played anyone who can


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:51 PM
 

begin to defend the read option.

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2 ints were from the WRs running the wrong route.

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 5:53 PM
 

Not sure if the other two were tips or guys falling down, ect.

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Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:07 PM
 

Spot on post.


Deshaun Watson needs to play like he did vs Alabama. He needs to go HAM.


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:10 PM
 

Hopefully he wakes up.

"We establish no religion in this country, we mandate no belief. Nor will we ever. Church and state are, and must remain, separate." ~Ronald Reagan


LJ


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:13 PM
 

Missed 20 passes last night! That's against Marshal. I agree that they are still playing lights out and Petrino is an excellent coach regardless of his personal life. But if our defense can contain him just with our DLine and Boulware spying then I like our chances. My only concern thus far is the offense just as you have indicated. Not bc our offense has dropped off bc they have so to speak but bc this defense at Louisville has some talent. DLine, and secondary. If we are going to move it on them it's going to mean we are going to Have to attack the middle of the field with Leggett and Williams. When they adjust then I think we will some opportunities over the top.


It doesn't really matter how many passes his missed.


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:22 PM
 

He still averaged around 9.5 YPA, and that was his least efficient game of the season. DW4 has only hit that mark once when he averaged 10 YPA against SCST. He's averaged 6.2 YPA against FBS teams which is no bueno. He was MUCH better in that regard last year.

One of the biggest missing ingredients has been the deep ball. I'm sure that and the struggles in the running game are tied together.

2020 white level member

Re: It doesn't really matter how many passes his missed.

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:49 PM
 

The lack of running game and the lack of the deep ball are tied together, but DW has missed every single open receiver that has gotten deep this year, every one of them. That's crazy. And he really hasn't been close either. All of them have been way overthrown. Hopefully he snaps out of that this weekend, because I think it's gotten in his head.


Great post, and I totally agree***


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:29 PM
 




Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 6:53 PM
 



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Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 7:04 PM
 

Do you ever enjoy anything?
14-1
10 + wins for the last 5 years.
4-0 this year.
All you can do is critique!!!
I will leave that to the coaches and I will pull for Clemson win or lose!
I also will enjoy doing it!!


Reality is We Are Far Better Than Marshall and Suckacuse


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 7:14 PM
 

And Look to Be Better Than FSU. We Are at Home, with a long rest period and a HUGE advantage in Coaching and Special Teams.

Have Faith, it will be a tight one, but Clemson will prevail.

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Another little note

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 7:44 PM
 

Between last year and this year, Louisville has yet to be in an environment like they will be in Saturday. After looking at their schedule from last year, their biggest away game was FSU and that was a noon kick.

They played Auburn in the dome (neutral site) , at Pitt, at NC STATE, and at Kentucky. None of those come close to the Valley on a Saturday night.

It will be interesting to see how they react when something doesn't go well for them, and 80,000+ starts to weigh down on them.

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Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 9:43 PM
 

Can't deny the facts, but I still think we should play the game


Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 9:54 PM
 

Yep, but we are playing good enough to win. That's all that matters.


Hopefully we'll show up and give them a game, after all


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 9:57 PM
 

they've played teams ranked
118
115
92
56
in total defense.

BTW, number 56 is Marshall that lost to Akron 65-38.

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null


Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 10:26 PM
 

Only believe!


Louisville has a senior and junior dominated starting


Posted: Sep 25, 2016 10:31 PM
 

lineup on offense and defense. They've all played in Death Valley before except Jackson, the two offensive tackles and the placekicker.

Our crowd will have to be especially involved to make a difference.

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null


Re: Reality is Louisville is playing better than us right now

[1]
Posted: Sep 25, 2016 10:39 PM
 

Nothing wrong with your post. It's actually good to see some numbers. I am a numbers fan but the only problem I have with them is that they don't always tell the whole truth (especially this early) I think our staff is great at putting 2nd and 3rd string players in early in the season....especially when we are up. A lot (not all) of the miscues have been when our less experienced players have been in. Also, our schedule has been a little harder than Louisvilles. Especially from a defensive perspective.

With that being said, Louisville has looked fantastic thus far and have manhandled their opponents. But they have left LJ and their starters in a lot longer than Clemson would have. They also haven't played anyone like Clemsons D yet. It will be a very tough test.

I think this will be an interesting week for sure, and will be quite the test for our boys. I like these type of games because it will really be the first test after the so call "preseason". I think we show up in typical Clemson fashion and show them who we are really made of. Clemson pulls out the big win at home. Go Tigers!


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