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Replies: 38
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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-12 is not budging.
Nov 3, 2015, 9:40 AM
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People are expecting a beatdown.
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Orange Blooded [3820]
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Looking at the performances of both teams this year
Nov 3, 2015, 9:41 AM
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Honestly, it should be.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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I think if they use their backup qb
Nov 3, 2015, 9:45 AM
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it will be a close game. Golston has been unimpressive so far.
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110%er [5287]
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Re: I think if they use their backup qb
Nov 3, 2015, 12:22 PM
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I think with our team giving 100%, last year says it wouldn't be. -7 missed by Stoudt to Leggett...-3 missed by Lakip (not the FG from the missed TD)...-7 on FSU if Alexander didn't slip. 27-10 could have been the score, with him as their QB...that is if the fumble still happened impedeing another CU score....and counting Fl State's last 66 in OT wouldn't have happened...
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110%er [5287]
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Re: I think if they use their backup qb
Nov 3, 2015, 12:22 PM
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*last 6
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110%er [8015]
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There's a reason they've used Golson
Nov 3, 2015, 12:52 PM
[ in reply to I think if they use their backup qb ] |
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Their O-line is not very good, and Maguire will get crushed behind it. Golson's mobility helps them.
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CU Guru [1643]
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Re: -12 is not budging.
Nov 3, 2015, 9:47 AM
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I have said all along Clemson by 17-21 points. We play at DV, the team know whats on the line! Im comfortable with Clemson covering!
Go Tigers!
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CU Medallion [73569]
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special teams is the only thing that could beat us imo
Nov 3, 2015, 9:58 AM
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I could see them getting 10-14 pts on special teams the way we play. Plus great field position.
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All-TigerNet [11934]
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Sadly, ^^^ this ^^^ is true.***
Nov 3, 2015, 1:06 PM
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Legend [19352]
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Re: -12 is not budging.
Nov 3, 2015, 10:27 AM
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OU is also 56
34-22 type score is what Vegas thinks.
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110%er [9300]
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Re: -12 is not budging.
Nov 3, 2015, 11:39 AM
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It's not what Vegas thinks. Vegas sets the line based on how they think people will side. However, its 4-4.5 points higher than I would have expected. Seems they are baiting people to take FSU.
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Oculus Spirit [93668]
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Help me understand.
Nov 3, 2015, 11:45 AM
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They set the line at what the project will balance the money, it doesn't move so they're baiting people to pick FSU?
I always though they just wanted folks to bet, if the betting goes toward either team they move the line to make the adjustment.
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110%er [9300]
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Re: Help me understand.
Nov 3, 2015, 11:53 AM
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You're correct 88' - they generally want roughly equal amounts of money on each side so they win the juice (10%) Sometimes a line just doesnt look right. If you watch the lines with regularity you can pretty well learn to predict what the line is gonna be (before it is released) within a point or so on lines under 14 with teams you're familiar with. This line should've been set around 7-8 imo. Typically when this happens Vegas knows something, or is really setting the line to "bait" or entice people to take one side. They are in essence gambling themselves because they have inside info, or are fairly certain of the outcome.
A good example of this in the past was the Clemson/GT game in Atlanta in 11'. We were 8-0 and I believe Tech was 5-3. We opened, and maintained as a 3 point dog. Seemed to good to be true. It was.
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All-TigerNet [10572]
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Message removed by Author
Nov 3, 2015, 12:27 PM
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Message removed by Author
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Trainer [37]
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Re: They want EXACTLY the same amount on each side
Nov 3, 2015, 12:37 PM
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> If not the house lays it off elsewhere.
>
> They want the guaranteed 10%
>
> It's a beautiful system. They only lose when they get
> caught lopsided on one end and cant get someone to
> catch the overage for them.
>
> ( Shoot, this appears as though I am a bookie
That is not true. They aren't building those massive casinos and sports books by just taking the vig. They set traps, and most of the time they're right about it.
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110%er [9300]
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+1 You are 100% correct
Nov 3, 2015, 1:10 PM
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Very few people seem to understand this, they most definitely set trap/sucker bets.
I believe FSU +12 is a sucker bet. Smart money, the heavy hitters, are on Clemson
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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110%er [9300]
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I believe they think, or know, that we are gonna pound FSU***
Nov 3, 2015, 1:13 PM
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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I hope they "know"***
Nov 3, 2015, 1:14 PM
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110%er [9300]
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Me too brother***
Nov 3, 2015, 1:15 PM
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CU Guru [1476]
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or like USC -3.5 vs #3 Utah?
Nov 3, 2015, 5:01 PM
[ in reply to Re: Help me understand. ] |
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And it went to -6.5 before they wiped the floor with them.
It just went Clemson -12.5. Wow.
It's scary how 'right' vegas usually is. They know something.
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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Vegas is my favorite predictor because they really don't
Nov 3, 2015, 5:08 PM
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care who wins. They just want to be right
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CU Guru [1497]
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Very surprising considering the betting trend is
Nov 3, 2015, 11:53 AM
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roughly 76 to 24 percent taking FSU +12 right now... the bookies may lose their a$ses on this one.
I predict Clemson to cover the 12 and probably winning by 15 or more!
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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Probably means the public is betting FSU but
Nov 3, 2015, 11:55 AM
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the whales are betting Clemson.
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Scout Team [172]
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Always a good sign...
Nov 3, 2015, 1:59 PM
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in fact, given that the public view of the line is so much less than the actual line, the Vegas algorithms may have us up by even more than the 12 and they lowered it to 12 for balance...
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110%er [9300]
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Trainer [47]
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Re: Very surprising considering the betting trend is
Nov 3, 2015, 12:02 PM
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Yeah when 70% of the public is taking one side, but the line doesn't budge or shifts in the opposite direction. It is generally a good sign. The opposite happened against FSU in 2013. The line kept moving to get the public on Clemson despite roughly 70% of the public already taking Clemson.
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CU Guru [1832]
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All-In [27180]
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Re: My take is different....oddsmakers probably know
Nov 3, 2015, 1:11 PM
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something we don't....maybe Cook won't play after all?
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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Another thing
Nov 3, 2015, 1:13 PM
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if you've been betting on Clemson all year you are rich.
Maybe they've stopped underestimating Clemson
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All-In [27180]
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Re: Another thing
Nov 3, 2015, 1:18 PM
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Have we covered all our spreads this year? My initial reaction is yes....
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Oculus Spirit [81897]
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Except Louisville***
Nov 3, 2015, 1:18 PM
[ in reply to Another thing ] |
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All-In [36450]
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wasnt Boston College -17 and we won by 17.
Nov 3, 2015, 1:20 PM
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Which would mean we didn't cover?
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Orange Blooded [3413]
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I think that is called a push
Nov 3, 2015, 1:24 PM
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and all money is returned to bettors
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All-In [36450]
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yes, but still didn't cover the spread.***
Nov 3, 2015, 1:26 PM
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Letterman [270]
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All-In [36450]
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I think that is a major factor in it***
Nov 3, 2015, 1:19 PM
[ in reply to Another thing ] |
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Recruit [89]
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ITT, we learn that people don't understand
Nov 3, 2015, 5:09 PM
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betting lines.
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Orange Blooded [2519]
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Where do you find out which side money is flowing to?***
Nov 3, 2015, 5:25 PM
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Replies: 38
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50
