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YOUR BALANCE
If Tua does indeed have a bad wheel...
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If Tua does indeed have a bad wheel...


Oct 14, 2018, 4:25 PM

...and it very much appears he does, the stretch run is likely not going to be kind to Alabama.

Their D statted pretty impressively against Mizzou but Mizzou was just plain bad on offense and it started with the fact that Drew Lock has been in full-on meltdown the last three weeks. I still saw a bunch of 10+ yard runs from Mizzou (when do you ever see that against Bama?), I saw WR's running wide slap open - Lock just kept missing them - and it's obvious why Saban has spent most of the first half of the season staring out at the team with a sick expression on his face.

That D has major holes in it, by Nick Saban standards. And I think watching his team throw so many forward passes physically hurts him.

Now, that Tide offense is awfully impressive - with Tua at the helm. With Tua on the sidelines, it was hard to not notice that with an extended runout of Jalen Hurts the Bama O reverted to 2016-2017 form...stodgy, unexplosive, inconsistent. And I don't think they can run the ball nearly as well as they used to.

And their last five games do not look easy. They're at Tennessee - which suddenly looks a lot tricker, especially if Tua is out, they get an obviously much-needed open date, then they're away to LSU...who just stomped Georgia by 20. Then they get #22 Mississippi State, they imported Citadel because, well, SEC out-of-conference scheduling is like that, and they get Auburn at home for the Iron Bowl. Are there 2 losses in there if Tua can't go?

Absolutely there are, IMHO. And a 2-loss Alabama team doesn't get a mulligan into the playoffs this year, no way, no how. There's likely going to be far, far too many 0-loss or 1-loss squads ahead of them. And even a 1-loss Alabama team that doesn't play in the SEC title game (again) is going to need a lot of style points down the stretch, because again, I think there's going to be too many better resumes ahead of them this year. With Tua, they're fine. Without Tua, even if they win, it's going to be winning ugly.

Also, is Georgia really a slam-dunk to win the East? They looked absolutely, utterly wretched against LSU, generated just 322 total yards of O - a good chunk of that in the fourth quarter when the game increasingly got out of reach, and got gashed for 475 themselves. The verdict was pretty clear: put the clamps on UGA's running game, and Fromm isn't good enough to beat you with his arm. And their run D is highly suspect. Pressure will probably grow to force-feed Justin Fields in, but he's shown nothing that would remotely indicate he's ready, either.

Florida and Kentucky, frankly, both look better than UGA right now. And I'd personally favor LSU over Bama unless Bama can somehow get Tua's knee right...in less than three weeks. Tua covers up a boatload of deficiencies most Tide teams in years past simply haven't had.

Also...don't look now, but Harbaugh and Michigan suddenly look a lot hotter than Ohio State. OSU's defense continues to slump - they're allowing 369.6ypg now, which puts them in the 60th-65th range overall (the stats haven't updated yet on the NCAA's site), about dead-even with UTSA and Indiana. Ugly...and I don't think a team with a D like that gets to the playoffs, much less does much even if they somehow get there. The Buckeyes do have a good O - 556.7ypg, good for about 5th or 6th overall, depending on what other teams did - but again, that's a little deceptive: Haskins throws for a boatload of yards, they don't run as well as prior OSU teams have (201.0 ypg, good for just 40th overall, nationally. That is distinctly atypical of an Urban Meyer offense.)

Don't even get me started on Notre Dame. They almost choked against a really, really bad Pitt team. At home. That had nobody resembling Nathan Peterman or James Conner on it.

Bottom line is that there is a ton of potential carnage shaping up for November...as ever. But there's some suggestions that this year's playoff picture may actually not be kind to a lot of the usual incumbents. You can definitely see scenarios shaping up where Alabama, OSU, and Georgia all potentially fail to make the playoffs. Which would have been unthinkable even a month ago.

TL-DR version: Bama might not make playoffs if Tua's hurt, will UGA even win East, and hey, lookit: OSU's defense reeks. :D

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Re: If Tua does indeed have a bad wheel...


Oct 14, 2018, 4:42 PM

Be careful Q, I suspect there may be a dark-colored van with an ESPN logo sitting on the street in front of your house right now. If not, it’s on the way...And right behind it is a 1982 Chevrolet Camaro outfitted with a plethora of Go ####$! decals. You’re possibly in grave danger...

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If bama, 031O state and uga don’t make the cfp


Oct 14, 2018, 4:52 PM

Then I s’pose you’re saying it will be us, LSU and ND...

... but who’s in at #4? UCF?

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Whatever choice(s) you make makes you. Choose wisely.


Re: If bama, 031O state and uga don’t make the cfp


Oct 14, 2018, 4:56 PM


Then I s’pose you’re saying it will be us, LSU and ND...

... but who’s in at #4? UCF?



Maybe. Maybe Michigan. Could even see Oklahoma or Texas jump back in.

Dunno if ND makes it without choking, though. They have never been good front-runners under Brian Kelly.

I think it could end up being us, and three first-timers to the dance, whatever. Could be interesting.

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this was the most exciting bye week I can remember


Oct 14, 2018, 4:57 PM

For Clemson.

I was also shocked at the ability of Mizzou to run the ball on bama.

I don't think LSU takes them with Tua but they will shut Hurts down if they face him.

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Re: this was the most exciting bye week I can remember


Oct 14, 2018, 10:55 PM

Are Y’all drunk? Mizzou averaged 2 yards per rush and only had 70 yards rushing, and 212 yards total. Their offense didn’t do jack. Bama gets more beatable with Tua injured but we still have a LONG way to go to beat them. I want to see us maintain the level of play we showed against Wake for several weeks in a row.

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Re: If Tua does indeed have a bad wheel...


Oct 14, 2018, 5:52 PM

As usual, excellent post. It will definitely be interesting to see how things play out over the next few weeks. I would love it if the playoff field is vastly different this year,except for Clemson, of course. :<)

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Sometimes the road to the truth is so elusive it's confusing and reality becomes illusion.


Two losses are needed to keep them out of the playoff.


Oct 14, 2018, 6:21 PM

You know they get a free pass on one loss regardless of when it occurs because “everyone knows” they are really the best team !

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Re: If Tua does indeed have a bad wheel...


Oct 14, 2018, 8:03 PM

The usual Alabama scenario will involve them losing just once, probably to LSU who will then lose the SEC championship game. The one loss Alabama team will get in. And of course the real SEC champion, the winner of the SEC championship game will be yapping to get in.

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Oct 14, 2018, 8:49 PM



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TL-DR?: quozzel made a funny


Oct 14, 2018, 10:35 PM

Anyone who thinks TL-DR could apply to one of quozzel's posts has a serious case of the morans

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The road goes on forever and the party never ends...


Re: If Tua does indeed have a bad wheel...


Oct 14, 2018, 10:45 PM

the only sure way to keep Bama out of the playoffs is if they have 3 losses............and that ain't happening.............hope they make it and Christian Wilkins and all his buddies get to even the series at 2 and 2..........we want Bama............Go Tigers!!!!!!!!!!!

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I actually want to play Bama


Oct 14, 2018, 10:53 PM

Bc Think we’re the one team that can beat Bama with Tua at qb.

Best pass rush and running team that keeps them on the sidelines.

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