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Replies: 19
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CU Medallion [55745]
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Hall of Famer [20540]
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Re: Even Mainstream sources say the race is tightening.
Sep 21, 2020, 11:46 AM
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Meh.
Biden's up by anywhere from 6.5% on Realclearpolitics (3.8% in battleground states), and more than that on fivethirtyeight.
Hillary was up about 2-3% at the same point.
Trump's popularity has been remarkably steady throughout his term - 40% to around 44% approval - and the needle has barely twitched. That won't get him re-elected and will also likely cost the GOP the Senate...and if they cram through a Supreme Court Justice at the last second it won't play well. Nobody's changing their mind at this point, but it will motivate Dems...and that's what you don't want, if you're the GOP...because there's far more registered Democratic voters than Republican.
Voters turned out bigly in 2018, and while the Senate went a little redder because of the map the GOP got shelled and lost the House. If it happens again in 2020 - and all signs indicate it's going to be a massively active election - then the GOP is out on the street.
Trump isn't going to convince anybody at this point. That's the problem with being so polarizing; everyone's either for you or against you and there's no in between.
And everybody, in my experience, has long-since made up their minds on this guy. He's not going to convince the millions of American voters he'd need that he's fit in the next month, and that's all he has.
Actually there's some likelihood the horse may have already left the barn. Early mail-in voting has begun and that roughly 7%-to-Biden vote will be reflected in those votes...which means mathematically every day that number remains steady is another day Trump gets mathematically into a deeper hole he requires ever-greater shifts to climb out of. Mathematically in the next couple weeks he might already be pretty much eliminated.
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Oculus Spirit [93662]
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That probably depends on who he nominates.
Sep 21, 2020, 1:26 PM
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I agree that the balance on the SCOTUS may excite the democrat party but the results of that added excitement may not be as you project. This is much more complicated than just exciting people to vote. Right now there are thousands who are excited enough to riot. That isn't helping democrats.
Threatening to burn it down, pack the courts, give statehood to DC, impeach Trump or Barr to stop the nomination may generate enough rhetoric from progressive cheerleaders to make congressional democrats think that the public supports radical reactions such as those.
Independents may get excited and not approve of the progressive reaction to the situation.
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Hall of Famer [20540]
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Re: That probably depends on who he nominates.
Sep 21, 2020, 2:27 PM
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Well, I've moved from the "R" to the "I" category, I am not excited about this prospect at all. I'd prefer there be a deal made before then to cool things off.
You do not win by stealing Court seats, like McConnell did in 2016, nor by packing it as the Dems are about to do if they win big in November. You do that and you invalidate the faith people have in the court, and the faith in the court is its biggest attribute...as John Roberts, fortunately, has shown an awareness of. People have to trust the Court's judgments. Invalidate that and people no longer trust the court to come to a fair decision based on the law. I actually like the idea of filling the court with strict-constructionists...the problem is the right wants culture warriors, actual partisans.
On the Supreme Court? They have no more business being there than liberal activists do.
Politics - and the partisans have lost sight of this - is about compromise, the Art of the Possible. You talk things out and deal in good faith instead of fighting.
Instead it's become all about the winning, beating the perceived "other side." Which is transitory and it serves nobody.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Even Mainstream sources say the race is tightening.
Sep 21, 2020, 11:50 AM
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My gut feeling is that Trump wins, but I who knows? All I know is I am going to try and watch leas political news in the next term no matter who wins.
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Hall of Famer [20540]
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Re: Even Mainstream sources say the race is tightening.
Sep 21, 2020, 12:04 PM
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Joe would have to blow it bigly in the debates.
One worries he's capable of that - my big fear has long been Joe will step on a rake at some point, he's always been a gaffe machine - and America will overlook that because, well, Trump, but if he loses his mind on stage in the middle of a debate that could still get him beat.
Short of that, though, Trump's pretty much solidified the race...and the Supreme Court stuff isn't going to help him unless he's smart enough to compromise and try to appear reasonable.
When has he ever compromised or tried to appear reasonable?
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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CU Medallion [73569]
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before the rbg, Trump had it in the bag imo
Sep 21, 2020, 12:01 PM
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there was ZERO energy on the lib side. Trump supporters are hugely motivated
Now...another 2020 monkey wrench with rbg. Libs gonna do what they do best. protest and riot... even more.
impeachment
covid
race protests
riots
now rbg
what else you got for us 2020? 
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CU Medallion [73569]
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i will predict, libs will once again overplay their hand tho
Sep 21, 2020, 12:05 PM
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they will go overboard during this scotus nomination and will turn off even more people by Nov 3.
just like they did with the protests/riots/burning/shootings
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Hall of Famer [20540]
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Re: before the rbg, Trump had it in the bag imo
Sep 21, 2020, 12:11 PM
[ in reply to before the rbg, Trump had it in the bag imo ] |
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You obviously do not understand the antipathy towards Trump. Before RBG, Trump was cruising to a supermajority loss.
Trailing by seven points with a month to go is not good.
This might shake things up...but it seems more likely to hurt Trump than help him. The Dems were already outraising Trump close to 2-to-1 (putting the lie to your assertion that the Dems were "not motivated"); their fundraising has shot through the roof since Friday. They bagged $100+ million this weekend alone.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517267-democrats-see-donor-surge-after-ginsburgs-death
Hope seems to spring eternal in all Trumpist's hearts because he did pull one upset...but His Orangeness is behind the 8-ball right now and it's getting worse with each day that passes.
He's galvanized his supporters. And also the other side even more.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: before the rbg, Trump had it in the bag imo
Sep 21, 2020, 12:26 PM
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Hall of Famer [20540]
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Re: before the rbg, Trump had it in the bag imo
Sep 21, 2020, 1:08 PM
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I guess we'll see.
The Trumpists assert there are vast hidden pockets of support for Trump out there that do not reflect in the polls.
The pollsters assert they've adjusted for the factors that cause them to miss (at least in terms of the electoral college, they did get the popular vote right) when they had Hillary up by about 2% going into election day.
That's the question: do the polls in actuality reflect a "hidden voter" problem with Trump...or a "disappearing voter" problem?
Most pollsters seem to think it's the latter. They say there's a lot of evidence Trump is losing big in the suburbs, especially among women, and that older voters and even some evangelicals are beginning to turn from him.
Trumpists on the other hand assert that he'll have massive turnout among his base that he did not enjoy even in 2016.
Personally I think Biden wins by about the amount we see right now. All the sound and fury in the world seem unlikely to change the numbers we've seen pretty much Trump's entire term...and continue to see. Unless the polling industry in total has just hopelessly lost touch - which I suppose is possible - where's the cavalry supposed to come from?
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Legend [19610]
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Quozzel, I think your logic is 180 degrees wrong.
Sep 21, 2020, 1:12 PM
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and you are whistling past the graveyard in what will happen.
Well see Nov 3rd.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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I see anecdotal evidence that Trump is indeed losing...
Sep 21, 2020, 1:21 PM
[ in reply to Re: before the rbg, Trump had it in the bag imo ] |
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some of his evangelical support.
I'm not sure how they reconcile this newfound conscious with a vote for the opposition. I see some evangelicals aligning themselves with people who stand in exact opposition of their supposed beliefs. I guess they have bcome woke.
Perhaps the Ginsberg opening will make them reconsider.
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All-In [46824]
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One of the fallicies I see a lot when considering polls
Sep 21, 2020, 1:28 PM
[ in reply to Re: before the rbg, Trump had it in the bag imo ] |
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is this idea that if a person "turns" from Trump that they will vote for Biden. But that isn't the case. Those that wash their hands of Trump are never going to vote for Biden. They're just not going to vote at all.
It wasn't Dems who didn't like Hillary and so voted for Trump that caused Trump to win and Hillary to lose (because that is a very very small amount of people) it was those who didn't like Hillary so they stayed at home.
This election will come down to which side is motivated enough to show up in massive numbers. Right now if you take out the foaming at the mouth trump supporters and the foaming at the mouth Biden supporters, you have much more motivation on the dems side than the republican side.
Just my opinion. I still have the gut feeling that Trump will win.
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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This election, like others before it, will be more about
Sep 21, 2020, 2:31 PM
[ in reply to Re: before the rbg, Trump had it in the bag imo ] |
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who likes who less than the other guy.
The general consensus from people I know is that most don't really like Trump as a person or president, but they like Biden even less, knowing which will affect their bank account more.
Economics tells me to trust people to vote with their wallet every time. I tend to believe that.
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All-In [26503]
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Part of their “get out the vote campaign “***
Sep 21, 2020, 1:09 PM
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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I find that when people tell me they want me to go vote
Sep 21, 2020, 2:32 PM
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in reality, they probably really don't.
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