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So Assumption Biased Maffs, S&P, 'awarded' AL-A-BAMA...
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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So Assumption Biased Maffs, S&P, 'awarded' AL-A-BAMA...
Jul 1, 2019, 8:41 AM
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their Mythical National Championship with UGAy at 11-3, their runner-up?
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa 2018 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS | Football Outsiders The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).
The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of ...
Maybe that Herbie fellow was onto something?
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Oculus Spirit [81986]
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Wow, we really had a bad case of the suck last year.
Jul 1, 2019, 8:47 AM
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fangers crost the program makes a step or two forward.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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If Dabo finishes undefeated again, yet can't win it all...
Jul 1, 2019, 8:49 AM
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maybe DRad needs to change directions?
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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We were originally pretty much dead even with Bama and
Jul 1, 2019, 8:55 AM
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quite a bit ahead of UGA before he tweaked his formula during the offseason and then retroactively applied it to all previous seasons of his ratings.
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All-In [40925]
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good thing we didnt play bama or uga. coots way better than virginny too!***
Jul 1, 2019, 8:55 AM
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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Some of y’all need to let it go
Jul 1, 2019, 9:00 AM
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S&P is generally pretty accurate and it’s helped me a lot with betting on CFB and identifying lines that don’t match up with statistics.
Another thing to keep in mind is that this is a full season ranking and 33% of that is without TL as a starter (4 split QB games and Cuse where he got hurt). Pretty sure Connelly has said that in just games TL started, Clemson was #1 S&P+
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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Some of y'all need to let it go, consider the 'conclusion'...
Jul 1, 2019, 9:05 AM
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before rushing to Connelly's defense?
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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The conclusion was less than 7% of the entire season
Jul 1, 2019, 9:16 AM
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A statistical model that takes most of its insights from less than 10% of the data points would hardly ever be accurate. That’s all S&P+ is is a statistical model.
Over the last 10 games, Clemson was the best team in the country and proved it on the field and won a championship. But that team from games 6-15 was not playing at the same level as it did in games 1-5. I’m not sure why this is so hard for some of you to understand. You’re getting mad at numbers. And Connelly is way smarter than I am and significantly smarter than you when it comes to advanced statistics which is why ESPN threw a bunch of money at him.
If Trevor started from game 1, or if you extrapolate the data from 6-15 for an entire season, Clemson would be an easy #1 but that’s not how the rankings work it’s over the actual 15 games played.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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Now you're a moran, it's clearly a model based on history...
Jul 1, 2019, 9:18 AM
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the facts, the complete year including those 5 games you try to If away. Most importantly, I wasn't referring to ~Connelly's conclusion, knee jerk, but mine.
Sorry to pull your crutch out from under you, maybe you bumped your heads?
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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Lol math is a crutch now?
Jul 1, 2019, 9:31 AM
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Your inferiority complex is stupefying. Or maybe you’re the smartest person in the world and everyone who doesn’t think like you is an idiot and clearly not able to fend for themselves. I’m not putting any money on the latter
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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No, you said, "it’s helped me a lot", not me and here...
Jul 1, 2019, 9:35 AM
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put this on that protruding forehead of yours.
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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It has helped me
Jul 1, 2019, 9:46 AM
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Won me a decent amount of money over the years betting on games. But it’s not surprising that math or logic hasn’t helped you, old timer.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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Yes, you've leaned on it, like a crutch...
Jul 1, 2019, 9:57 AM
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Nothing wrong with that, I love S&P, Sagarin, KenPom, so many others, that doesn't excuse you getting emotionally encumbered, doubling-down even after I tried to talk you off the ledge.
You bit the cheese, all you've been doing since is trying to get out of the trap.
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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Pointing out fallacies in your argument/position
Jul 1, 2019, 10:07 AM
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Isn’t a crutch. And I became emotionally encumbered yet you called me a caveman in several posts instead of actually refuting points? But you discovered how to use memes and gifs so congrats and welcome to the internet circa 2009.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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No, you knee-jerked after I tried to direct you...
Jul 1, 2019, 10:16 AM
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to my conclusion, you whiffed, drunk from impassioned desire to defend something that didn't need so.
You're not bright enough to know better; it's littered 'cross the sands of time above.
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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Re: No, you knee-jerked after I tried to direct you...
Jul 1, 2019, 10:24 AM
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Whatever you need to tell yourself to make you think you won, chief.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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I don't need to tell myself anything, it's written above...
Jul 1, 2019, 10:30 AM
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Me after you defended Connelly: Some of y'all need to let it go, consider the 'conclusion'... before rushing to Connelly's defense?
You in response to Me trying to talk you down: [More defense even after being asked to consider]... ---> You’re getting mad at numbers.
LOL, mad? I never once, even remotely suggested anything of the sort, just you being all emo and knee-jerking your way into an argument that never existed.
Goodbye, and please have a better day than you've had to this point?
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110%er [5063]
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Re: So Assumption Biased Maffs, S&P, 'awarded' AL-A-BAMA...
Jul 1, 2019, 9:03 AM
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Is this a Paul Harvey segment?
Anyway, the rest of the story...
the "Innovative Statistics" is the tell tale sign here...You really have to get innovative to be able to rank Alabama, or any other team, ahead of Clemson after the season and playoffs were finished. The "Intelligent Analysis" comes into play once you decide that the SEC is the best conference BEFORE you start the analysis part.
As far as the "Herbie" comment, I think it is correct to link this analysis with a flower power Volkswagen bug, for comedic effect, which is the final result of the poll.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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No.***
Jul 1, 2019, 9:08 AM
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110%er [5063]
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Re: No.***
Jul 1, 2019, 9:54 AM
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OK, humor didn't work, how about this...if you are really going to measure the teams using this detail of statistics, then there needs to be one more statistic added to the mix...number of players played during the game. With this weighted properly, then Clemson would have been rated number one in this analysis. No other team played as many players per game than Clemson. If Alabama had of substituted as Clemson did, then their points differential would have been less, and their ratings lower. Or the other way of looking at it, if we had of kept our #1's in longer, we would have scored more points, and had a better rating in this type of analysis. This would make it an apples to apples comparison!
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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No, the attempt at humor was much mo better, keep the faith
Jul 1, 2019, 10:11 AM
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And really, you're adding a big assumption, Alabama is more talented according to 3rd party information[not that it's the end all], so no way to prove it would matter.
Also, not saying you, but many believe Tua padded stats playing longer, but Trevor threw more in 2018.
Seriously and for a second, please read the last line again and consider this only about Herbie, the rest other than UGAy being a top 4 team is just tinsel & pretty wrapping paper.
Have a good day.
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110%er [5063]
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Re: No, the attempt at humor was much mo better, keep the faith
Jul 1, 2019, 10:33 AM
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I was not knocking you at all, and understood your Herbie reference from the beginning. As I said, I was just using the reference to the old movie as a proof of the comic aspect of the poll. But once it was posted, just felt compelled to tear it apart!
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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I did not believe you were knocking me and I wasn't
Jul 1, 2019, 10:43 AM
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doing that to you.
The S&P can be a valuable tool, the shock value is fun, but as you did, pointed out the Herbie part, it was the wrap. UGA clearly falls into the top 4, even after a 3rd loss, whether that supports Herbie or not, that's up to those that choose to respond or consider THAT. There's other funs to be had as well as you can see strewn across the sands of times.
Als, the No, is a perfectly good answer, nothing more or less, not intended as a slap in any way.
Enjoy the day.
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110%er [5063]
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Re: No.***
Jul 1, 2019, 10:30 AM
[ in reply to No.*** ] |
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Also, consider this from their rankings...the 14 SEC schools were ranked 1-14 on the strength of schedule statistic...think about that, how unbiased can a poll be that the first thing they do is rank every SEC team SOS as the top 14? That is certainly a clue that this is biased and should not be used.
In other words, Clemson, who beat the teams ranked by Massey in his final poll at #2, 4, 9 and 10, and in all beat 12 bowl teams, and according to Massey, had the second best strength of schedule, could not even break into the top 14 of this analysis?
This is what I think is one of the best rating services out there:
https://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1603&s=300937
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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Yes, statisticians have their biases, it's why I refer
Jul 1, 2019, 10:57 AM
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to it as Assumption Biased Maff, not necessarily a knock, just what is.
Some like a Point Differential modifier, others find that unfair and so on.
All of them are tools, some have particular strengths, some peculiar weaknesses? They're fun, can be turned into even mo fun and the world is constantly being forced into some equation in hopes of bettering some outcomes?
This is all in good funs.
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110%er [5572]
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"We don't know what we're talking about"
Jul 1, 2019, 9:04 AM
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That needs to be their disclaimer.
That's embarrassingly bad.
It's analogous to claiming that that 1+1 =3 (when the Answer Key at the top of the test states 1+1 =2).
Just another example of people making up their own reality while ignoring the facts.
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Orange Blooded [3290]
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Re: "We don't know what we're talking about"
Jul 1, 2019, 9:14 AM
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But in this case he made up the facts (formula) to fit his personal reality (Bama #1)!
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All-In [40100]
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What you’re forgetting is that Alabama had to play against the best
Jul 1, 2019, 9:14 AM
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Cfb of all time and we did not.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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That you, Herbie? You stood tall, while some mocked you...***
Jul 1, 2019, 9:15 AM
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Tiger Cub [11]
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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It's maffs dood, don't rock the boat and Go Herbie!***
Jul 1, 2019, 9:20 AM
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Does this mean Dabo is going to have to ask all of his
Jul 1, 2019, 10:01 AM
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players to send their championship rings back so they can edit "Best Ever" to "3rd Best Ever?"
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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Do you believe Dabo an honorable person? If yes, then....?***
Jul 1, 2019, 10:18 AM
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Orange Blooded [2063]
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Re: So Assumption Biased Maffs, S&P, 'awarded' AL-A-BAMA...
Jul 1, 2019, 10:24 AM
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This is my favorite way to measure the success of your season.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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^^^ Winner ^^^, much mo better than the idgit...
Jul 1, 2019, 10:32 AM
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trying to defend his/her crutch.
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Legend [18133]
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Good thing they only give the trophy to 3rd place
Jul 1, 2019, 10:41 AM
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Sure looks good in the football complex
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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If Dabo were a horse, at 3rd he'd still be showing off...***
Jul 1, 2019, 10:47 AM
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Legend [18133]
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That's what I say, too, only my mantra is
Jul 1, 2019, 11:27 AM
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Dabo is MONEY
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