Re: "What does state polling tell us about the national race?"

"Do we even need national polling to determine the state of the race?"

Interesting analysis of the state polling relative to 2012 and 2016 and what it tells us about the current presidential race.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-state-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-national-race/

What State Polls Can Tell Us About The National Race

Earlier this week, I was working on an article that claimed Joe Biden had better results in state polls than in national polls. Then on Wednesday, the inevitabl…

What State Polls Can Tell Us About The National Race

Earlier this week, I was working on an article that claimed Joe Biden had better results in state polls than in national polls. Then on Wednesday, the inevitabl…

Tobias27772

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Sep 24, 2020, 3:51 PM

Yeah, every time one of my liberal friends mentions that national polls, I point out that the Presidential race is really 50 state-wide races because of the Electoral College.

National polls don't mean squat. Watch the state polls in the ten or twelve swing states - that is all that matters.

While I am at it, that is really all that matters in regards to how contested this elections will be after election day. The election results will not be close enough to be disputed except in a handful (3 or 4) of states. As long as we can keep a close look at those states and verify their results, there should be little to no controversy about the overall results.

In fact, the EC results could easily be such that even 1 or 2 disputed state votes might not have any decisive impact on the overall results.

We are probably not going to know the results on election night, but that is not a reason to go ballistic (even though ALL media outlets will try to fill their time with presumptions and wild guesses) or to start speculating on the outcome. Within a day or two the picture will become more clear.

We will have a number of legal challenges from both sides and the local officials (both Dem & Rep) will do their best to work them out. But it may not impact the overall results as dramatically as is being imagined right now.

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"What does state polling tell us about the national race?"

Do they use Mexican Jumping Beans to count

you know, some posts I never open...

Re: "What does state polling tell us about the national race?"

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