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Replies: 19
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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Virus fatality rate 1.207% today.
Mar 24, 2020, 3:43 PM
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Not saying that's good it's just not getting worse yet.
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110%er [6101]
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Re: Virus fatality rate 1.207% today.
Mar 24, 2020, 4:40 PM
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I tried personally to locate anyone in my circle of contacts to see if anyone had contracted this flu, or new anyone who had it. The best I could do, and this is no bs was:
A gf who works with a guy who’s father-in-law knows someone who’s dad tested positive. That’s 5 degrees of separation.
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All-In [30181]
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My wife is on the phone right now with the 6th or 7th
Mar 24, 2020, 4:52 PM
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person in her org at work that tested positive.
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Legend [15492]
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Re: Virus fatality rate 1.207% today.
Mar 24, 2020, 8:13 PM
[ in reply to Re: Virus fatality rate 1.207% today. ] |
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I tried personally to locate anyone in my circle of contacts to see if anyone had contracted this flu, or new anyone who had it. The best I could do, and this is no bs was:
A gf who works with a guy who’s father-in-law knows someone who’s dad tested positive. That’s 5 degrees of separation.
And that's great news. And the funny thing is, the more people practice the 5 things the President laid out, the fewer cases there will be. And then people will criticize it all as over-blown.
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CU Guru [1405]
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Re: Virus fatality rate 1.207% today.
Mar 24, 2020, 4:44 PM
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So that means the eventual outcome is about 4 million Americans? Sounds good, let's reopen everything.
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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Bro, do you even comprehend?***
Mar 24, 2020, 4:50 PM
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All-In [26968]
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CU Guru [1405]
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Re: That's some bad math right there.***
Mar 24, 2020, 4:56 PM
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1.207% of the US is 3,949,300 people. Do you even math bro?
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All-In [26968]
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The 1.2% is the mortality rate of coronavirus patients...
Mar 24, 2020, 5:05 PM
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Not the mortality rate of all Americans.
I kinda even math, bro.
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CU Guru [1405]
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Re: The 1.2% is the mortality rate of coronavirus patients...
Mar 24, 2020, 5:25 PM
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And if we go back to normal life like Trump wants, virtually every American will get it.
I thought you were just kidding with the first post, but Jesus dude.
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All-In [26968]
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So, inserting the numbers into a hypothetical,
Mar 25, 2020, 6:10 AM
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fantasy scenario no one was talking about in this thread, proves that my math is wrong? That's quite an interesting take.
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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CU Guru [1405]
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Re: Please tell me you didn't graduate from Clemson.***
Mar 24, 2020, 6:23 PM
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Masters Degree. I'm sorry you can't do math.
I was using the figure in the opening post, but the actual estimate of deaths if we f up the response is about 1.3 million. That's what was reported to a Senate committee in a conference call I was in today and matches other estimates that are reported through various media sources.
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Scout Team [170]
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All-American [587]
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Re: Virus fatality rate 1.207% today.
Mar 24, 2020, 6:51 PM
[ in reply to Re: Virus fatality rate 1.207% today. ] |
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100% of Americans won't get this, but I think 60M (same # as H1N1 in 2009) is a nice conservative estimate.
H1N1 had a vaccine prior to the Pandemic, and 30% of people were already immune to the virus automatically. Additionally it had an R0 of 1.4 (average # of people infected by another person).
Sars-Cov-2 has no vaccine for 12+ months, there are no known immunities, and it has an R0 of ~2.0-2.5.
Hard not to assume that at least 60M Americans will contract it over the next 1-2 years. That would be ~720,000 deaths assuming mortality rate stays the same.
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CU Guru [1405]
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Re: Virus fatality rate 1.207% today.
Mar 24, 2020, 7:41 PM
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High end estimates are closer to 100% than your number unfortunately. The number presented in the most recent conference call I heard today was about 225 million infected Americans. We have <1M hospital beds and with those numbers, over 30 million people could require hospitalization. If we go back to normal business in the country, the number of dead will soar into the seven figures.
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CU Medallion [55659]
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Wanna get the sh*t scared out of you?
Mar 24, 2020, 4:59 PM
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Follow either of these for a full day, checking in every couple of hours or so. Watch the number of confirmed cases and deaths rise. USA finna catch Italy in confirmed cases.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, and death toll by country due to the COVID 19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, historical data, and info. Daily charts, graphs, news and updates
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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We're five times the population of Italy.***
Mar 24, 2020, 5:42 PM
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All-American [587]
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Re: We're five times the population of Italy.***
Mar 24, 2020, 6:54 PM
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Yes, and Italy was ~8 days ahead of us in the Pandemic.
Assuming Day 1 was the day a country had 100 known cases of CoronaVirus, we are currently on Day 23 with >52,000 cases. On Day 23 Italy had 27,000 cases, therefore we have 2x the number of cases at the same point in the curve.
If that doesn't sound bad, just know that we had fewer cases than Italy on Day 17.
At the current rate, US will be at ~4-5x Italy's number on Day 30.
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All-TigerNet [11626]
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I’m assuming that’s US. Worldwide it’s over 4%.***
Mar 24, 2020, 7:54 PM
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