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YOUR BALANCE
We Have to flatten the curve ....
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We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 23, 2020, 11:12 PM

or it will be a tsunami!!!
Listen up folks. 3 days ago there were approx 20k confirmed cases nationwide. Today there are over 40k cases. To figure the rate of increase , it's the rule of 72. So a 25% increase everyday means that the number of cases will double every 3 days. That's what it's done the past 6 days. Going from 10k to 20k to 40k. That means if we don't slow it down it could be 80k cases by Thursday or Friday and 160k cases by early next week. Within ten days we'll probably have 1,000 deaths per day. The week after that 2000 per day. We must act NOW , time is not on our side.

At the current rate of increase, we'll have over 1,000 here in SC in 1 more week and that number could double every 3 to 4 days. If we don't slow it down, we could easily have 100,000 cases in SC in 30 to 45 days. It's time to get serious !!!

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let's wait until it sweeps through congress...


Mar 23, 2020, 11:15 PM

before we flatten it

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Out of 535 members


Mar 24, 2020, 1:40 PM

i's not out of the realm of possibility that there will be 25-50 open spots in the coming 3 months.

Grim, I know, but given their average age and we know several have already tested posted it won't be long before many more test positive.

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Re: Out of 535 members


Mar 24, 2020, 3:16 PM

In my opinion we should have an age limit on all public offices.....both from being too young and too old to serve.....typically you are not mature enough to serve when you are too young and not capable of (both physically and mentally) of serving when you get to old.....our forefathers monked up by not setting age AND term limits for all our elected offices IMO......Go Tigers!!!!!

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Re: Out of 535 members


Mar 24, 2020, 8:34 PM

We'll the Constitution does set minimum age requirements for national offices.

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Re: Out of 535 members


Mar 24, 2020, 3:16 PM [ in reply to Out of 535 members ]

In my opinion we should have an age limit on all public offices.....both from being too young and too old to serve.....typically you are not mature enough to serve when you are too young and not capable of (both physically and mentally) of serving when you get to old.....our forefathers monked up by not setting age AND term limits for all our elected offices IMO......Go Tigers!!!!!

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The stress you're putting on yourself


Mar 24, 2020, 12:34 AM

won't be good when you catch it. Me and my family are at home. We only leave to go to the grocery store or gas station. Freezer is full because we purchased a full cow and 1/2 elk 2 months ago. Last I checked we had 60 something rolls of tp.

There's no need to come on here and tell us we need to stop this thing because most of us are staying home. What else do you want?

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There are actually a ton who aren't, and...


Mar 24, 2020, 12:41 AM

...if you aren't going anywhere why do you have to go to the gas station?

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There's no such thing as a stupid question, just stupid people who ask questions.


Re: There are actually a ton who aren't, and...


Mar 24, 2020, 12:54 AM

Milk, can't really stock up on that and with a 2 year old, it's a necessity.

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Re: There are actually a ton who aren't, and...


Mar 24, 2020, 7:07 AM

Not saying you should do it, but milk actually does freeze just as good as anything else. If it still has a week left on the rot date when you put it in the freezer, it will be good for a week after you take it out.

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Why do you go to the gas station


Mar 24, 2020, 7:12 AM [ in reply to The stress you're putting on yourself ]

if you only go the the grocery store.

My county only has a couple of cases. We are still a good month or two from the spike.

Almost half the cases are in NY and most of those are in NYC.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 7:17 AM

One reason for the sharp increase is the number of people that have had the virus and just got the ability to be tested for it. Until the initial numbers settle out we are going to have those days where the numbers are big. And that's my opinion, just like everything else you read is someone else's opinion. Most of them probably wrong. What I can tell you that is a fact is that the medical group my daughter works for in the Raleigh area has switched from them being required to work extra shifts and overtime to now they are asking them to use unpaid days off and PTO because they have no patients in the ERs in the Raleigh, Clayton and Smithfield hospitals. This just came about yesterday afternoon, late.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 7:17 AM

China never reached those numbers with a population of over 1.5B. Panic much?

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 8:37 AM

I see your point ...

But you should research the response China gave to Covid-19....google “Wuhan lockdown details”

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 9:08 AM [ in reply to Re: We Have to flatten the curve .... ]

China also enforced centralized, draconian quarantine methods that the US government could never pull off without being forced to declare martial law and face open rebellion from citizenry. There is no fair way to compare the two countries' responses or results.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 9:22 AM

Among other methods, they've been requiring citizens to have a bar code on their phones in order to leave the house. The bar code is scanned whenever they enter a building, and then if someone gets the virus they're able to tell who all came into contact with that person, and then send a notification to those people telling them they have to quarantine right away. They've also had police in the streets wearing devices that allow them to read the body heat of people to tell if they have fevers or not.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 25, 2020, 7:36 AM

Can you imagine, even in this crisis, the outcry if the government compelled us have our every movement tracked? There would be a revolution before the week was out.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 7:26 AM

:) My wife and I went to 3 different stores (Costco, Ingles, and Lydl) stocking up on non-perishable goods, and it's just the 2 of us. We went early morning to avoid crowds, and we filled up with gas (129.9 at Costco). We are ready to hunker down for quite a while.

I have discovered that if you cough a lot, crowds avoid you. I saw people turn around in the aisle and go the other way. Awesome. It was either the coughing or the red MAGA hat that worked for me.

It is so easy to control the masses that live in fear, so it's a good thing that I'm a nice guy and don't really do those things. But don't push me. :)

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 7:43 AM

China was able to control it because their citizens were forced into isolation at the point of a gun and their population took it seriously. My fear is that most Americans today are too entitled to actually sacrifice anything for the common the common good. As long as the cases nationally and statewide continue to increase by 20% to 25% a day it will crush our economy and thousands will die. Yesterday in SC we had about 100 new cases, that's 50% increase day over day. So we now have about 300. Somehow, we've got to slow the spread to less than 5% , which would be about 10 to 15 per day. That's what has got to happen or we're going to be headed to a Statewide lockdown soon.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 7:48 AM

You call freedom “entitlement”. We crushed the economy with fear and about 30 actual cases. This is the most insane thing I’ve ever seen in my life.

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You do know that things such as freedom of speech,


Mar 24, 2020, 8:42 AM

association, and religion are literally entitlements in this country, right?

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 9:34 AM [ in reply to Re: We Have to flatten the curve .... ]

And even with those measures we're currently at nearly 50,000 cases, and had over 100 people die yesterday alone. Imagine where we'd be sitting right now if we simply ignored it.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 1:38 PM

How many people died in America yesterday tho? I'm not saying it isn't a big deal I am just wondering what % of deaths now are from the virus.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 4:00 PM [ in reply to Re: We Have to flatten the curve .... ]

you could say that the numbers could be the same.

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Yes, the Chinese citizens were forced to quarantine and were


Mar 24, 2020, 8:32 AM [ in reply to Re: We Have to flatten the curve .... ]

not allowed to leave their apartments, but I can guarantee you there are very few guns in China.

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Aspiring member of the TigerNet Sewer Dwellers


Re: Yes, the Chinese citizens were forced to quarantine and were


Mar 24, 2020, 4:02 PM

for about 3 week. i run 25 plants in china (3 in wuhan)- and all of them are back up and running and have been for 3 weeks+

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lol***


Mar 24, 2020, 8:21 AM



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Best Is The Standard


Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 8:27 AM

The cure may end up being worse than the disease.
The press could once again easily make the case that the Flu is a pandemic (since the number of individuals that contract it are so high, and there are so many deaths of all ages). But this won't happen because it is old news. The COVID-19 could be worse or not as bad as the Flu. We have to let the numbers play out. Inciting panic worldwide is not the way to handle this. If a large meteor strike was eminent, I could understand the panic, but this disease is going to have to play out. Nature is a beast that mankind can not always tame.

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"If a pig had a better personality, he would cease to be a filthy animal."


Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 9:31 AM

People keep comparing it to the flu, but I've never seen hospitals run out of space and/or equipment over the flu. I've never seen anyone die of the flu who could've otherwise been saved because the hospital didn't have any room for them. We haven't gotten to that point here quite yet, but other countries are dealing with that, and we're not far from it here in certain areas. If we had a vaccine to control the number of cases, and we had data to give medical professionals an idea of how many total cases to expect each season like they have with the flu then the panic wouldn't be where it is. It's not a competition over which disease kills more people.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 10:49 AM

My daughter is an ER doctor in the Raleigh area and they have been asked to take voluntary leave because the patient volume is so low. It is 1/4 of normal. This means that people are listening and not going to the ER when they stub their toe like they normally do and they are also not going to the ER when they contract the virus like they have been asked to do. I guess the hospitals are overflowing in larger cities but I don't think that's the case for most of the US.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 11:28 AM [ in reply to Re: We Have to flatten the curve .... ]

So the 19 cases in my area filled the 7 hospitals? They need to put more than 2 rooms per hospital.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 11:31 AM

I did say in certain areas.

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 8:38 AM

deaths are doubling every 3 days. that's the simplest answer. that means this can double 10 times in a month. there were something like 550 deaths yesterday. without flattening the curve, there will be 550x1024 deaths 30 days from now. That comes out to around 600,000 deaths. think that's a big number? THREE DAYS after that, there'd be 1,200,000 more deaths. No one actually expects deaths to follow that kind of rigorous line, but if we do nothing, that's pretty much where we end up.

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I'm not very good at math- how many days


Mar 24, 2020, 10:37 AM

until we are all dead?

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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 11:36 AM

I would like to address a few misconceptions.

My office has seen 50% of the positive cases in Anderson County, and we are in Pickens County, but the patient's live in Anderson. several points to make here - the numbers are not remotely accurate. I do not believe we have had a doubling of cases every 3 days. I believe we have had a doubling of KNOWN cases every 3 days. This means the illness is far more prevalent in the community, but because this increases the denominator, it also reduces the death rate, hospitalization rate, etc. The other point is that even though my one office has seen 50% of the cases, we are still open and running, and hurting for patients. Thank God CMS approved telehealth coverage. We flexed off some of our staff today. Nurses in Anderson at the hospital are being flexed off.

so the second big misconception is that we are anywhere near overwhelming the health care system. I do believe that may be happening in a few places like NYC (where social distancing still means living with 7 other roommates in a 500sq ft apartment) for example. Again, 4 cases in all of Anderson county, the patient I saw last week has not been hospitalized, the patient we saw the week before that has been discharged. I don't believe a few cases are going to overwhelm our hospital. We have more any given day in the hospital with flu.

The point i'm making is that the rate of rise we are seeing reported is from the increased ability to test. It likely does not represent true cases, which means there are a TON of low symptom or asymptomatic patient's out there that are not utilizing health care services. And even those that are seeing providers are not usually tested. I had a visit with a person in their 40s with classic COVID19/Flu sx, but because they were not a HCW or 65+ with a comorbidity, they will not be tested under any circumstance, unless they end up in the hospital with severe symptoms.

that said, the idea of flattening the curve is a sound one. the idea of panicking about flattening the curve is not. We are hoping we can keep enough patients in the office and on the phone without unnecessary exposures that we can stay open. quite the opposite problem of overwhelming the health care system.

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TigerXJ
Clemson University Class of 2007
UNC-CH SOM Class of 2011
Life's Journey is not to arrive at the Grave Safely in a Well Preserved Body. But Rather to Launch Airborne, Land Hard, Slide in Sideways, Totally Worn Out and Thrashed, Screaming "Holy Shit What a Ride!!!"


Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 12:59 PM

Thanks for sharing. I believe though that the thought process is more that the healthcare system would be in danger of reaching capacity had the country not taken measures to limit the spread, is it not? I'm not saying that would have been the case in every single region, but that I believe is the thought process of trying to limit things.

Without the limits, those 3 people, or at least the ones with mild symptoms go about their normal lives, go to work, church, events, etc... and say they spread it to a total of 5 other people, and then those people do the same, and so on and so on. I'm not going to try and make up numbers for the sake of making them up, but the number of cases would obviously grow that much faster.

Those people all see coworkers, their children go to school and come across dozens of other children each day as well as teachers, etc... A basketball game takes place with 15-20k fans in the stands and 10 people go to the event as carriers and are spread out to different areas of the arena. How many at that event end up with it, and then spread it around?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not in a panic, and I'm actually torn between wanting to go back to normal, having sports to watch, not wanting my child to miss school, etc... and understanding the need for these actions.

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I've been watching the change in serious/critical cases


Mar 24, 2020, 1:56 PM [ in reply to Re: We Have to flatten the curve .... ]

This site seems to be up to date, the US deaths increased from 613 to 622 while I was typing this, but there are a bunch of sources.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


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Re: We Have to flatten the curve ....


Mar 24, 2020, 1:34 PM

Who knows if it is just the fact that people are getting tested for it now tho. My wife was tested Thursday and doesn't have results yet still. Her positive test will could towards the number of whatever day she gets it but she was tested Thursday so it's not like she just got it if she is positive. I do not believe she is she just had a temp last week and works at a hospital so she had to get tested.

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according to nancy P


Mar 24, 2020, 3:55 PM

if we
have same day voter registration
bail out the USPS
give students who took loans and have to pay them back -my money
then this virus wont hurt us.

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Ive heard the rumor that regardless of ...


Mar 24, 2020, 4:07 PM

flattening the curve or not... this will be the beginning of the end to this by late april to early may. You'll either of caught it or had so much contact with someone that you are immune to it to the heat and humidity will push numbers down to the virus will have mutated once again.

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"I love this place, I've got a spot already picked out where I want 'em to put me when I die - up there on that ole hill near the stadium. I want to be there so I can hear all them people cheering my Tigers on Saturdays; then I won't have to go Heaven; I'll already be there."- Frank Howard


Re: Ive heard the rumor that regardless of ...


Mar 24, 2020, 4:09 PM

something like that is generally what happens. very few virus have found a cure. it simply goes away and the world moves on.

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