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Replies: 18
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CU Guru [1797]
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No reason this team can't make the tournament
Jan 17, 2015, 7:32 PM
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Our remaining schedule sets up nicely. We just have to win our home games, and they are all winnable. Most difficult one will be against Notre Dame. The only one of our road games where a loss would hurt our RPI is against FSU. Go 6-1 at home and 2-4 on the road with one of those wins at FSU and our regular season record would be 18-12 with an RPI around 50. The committee would heavily discount our only 2 bad losses since they came in our 2nd and 3rd games of the season.
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All-TigerNet [12208]
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Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament
Jan 17, 2015, 7:35 PM
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Ill give you 4 reasons
1. Winthrop
2. Gardner Webb
3. Rutgers
4. Getting blasted by an avg at best scar squad
It is going to be an uphill battle to dig ourselves out of that hole.
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All-TigerNet [10666]
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See NC State last year***
Jan 17, 2015, 7:37 PM
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CU Guru [1797]
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Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament
Jan 17, 2015, 7:40 PM
[ in reply to Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament ] |
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I agree that it's still an uphill battle, but the Rutgers and Scar losses aren't that bad. Rutgers beat a top-5 team last week (Wisconsin) and their RPI is in the 60's. Scar is in the 80's but that one was on the road.
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All-TigerNet [10402]
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Legend [17774]
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Heisman Winner [111584]
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Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament
Jan 17, 2015, 7:51 PM
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it is still a long road ahead, no idea how we will match up with some teams. However, Brownell's teams do this every year, they shine the best right when the fans are about to give up on them.
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Legend [18663]
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Clemson will be lucky to get in the NIT at 18-12.***
Jan 17, 2015, 10:06 PM
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I appreciate your optimism though.
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Legend [16908]
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Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament
Jan 17, 2015, 10:34 PM
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There is zero chance this team makes the NCAA tournament. If that is what your banking on you are in for total disappointment. I'd say they have a less than 5% chance of going 8-5 like you predict but, even if they did, that would tie their record from last year which wasn't good enough and included much "better losses."
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CU Guru [1797]
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Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament
Jan 17, 2015, 10:59 PM
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You really think we have a less than 5% chance of going 8-5? We have gone 8-5 over the last 13 games against an arguably tougher schedule than what we have coming up. And this team is getting better. Have to be pretty pessimistic to think our chances are that low.
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Legend [16908]
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Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament
Jan 18, 2015, 7:21 AM
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The problem, as I see it, is that you are asking for an absolute best case scenario on the road and for them to be near perfect at home. A team isn't as wildly inconsistent as this one has been and fail to miss shots for nearly a half at a time simply because of effort. I agree that the slate ahead isn't that difficult, but this team has already lost to some pretty bad teams. To think that isn't going to happen again over the back half of the season - to teams that almost all out talent us on paper - is crazy to me.
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Orange Blooded [4095]
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So far, we already have some "Signature" Wins
Jan 18, 2015, 10:20 AM
[ in reply to Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament ] |
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Its not how you start, its how you finish ... also the always important "eyeball test". Play well the rest of the season, beat a couple more ranked teams, your in
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Legend [16908]
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Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament
Jan 18, 2015, 7:20 AM
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The problem, as I see it, is that you are asking for an absolute best case scenario on the road and for them to be near perfect at home. A team isn't as wildly inconsistent as this one has been and fail to miss shots for nearly a half at a time simply because of effort. I agree that the slate ahead isn't that difficult, but this team has already lost to some pretty bad teams. To think that isn't going to happen again over the back half of the season - to teams that almost all out talent us on paper - is crazy to me.
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Legend [16822]
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Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament
Jan 18, 2015, 7:38 AM
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By all means, let's evaluate this team's prospects by the losses and give zero credit to the wins, which of late, are solid. November is well in the mirror. Rutgers was not a bad loss...and Arkansas is a top 15 RPI win.
This isn't to suggest they'll make the tournament, but judging the opposition's successes while lamenting the Tigers' failures is warped assessing. Clemson are not an easy team to play, whatsoever (or watch, at times  ). They do need more consistent production from the bench, but that seems to be solidifying somewhat. Let's see. Go Tigers!
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Legend [16908]
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Re: No reason this team can't make the tournament
Jan 18, 2015, 3:13 PM
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And my only argument was that it is virtually certain they won't make the tournament, Take what away from the wins? That we can, in fact, win a game? So we go 2-3 over 5 games with 2 horrific blow-outs and suddenly we're gonna go 6-1 at home. It's crazy talk no matter whether you're "giving credit" to the wins or the losses. I will be more than happy to be wrong. We are as capable and likely to have 8 scoreless minutes against Ga Tech or Wake Forest as we were against UNC or Virginia. And it was further my point that even if we did win those games we probably wouldn't make it in. The same record as last year - worse losses. And you can't judge these "quality wins" at this point in the season. When the new poll comes out we won't have a single ranked victory - Arkansas has lost back to back games. They're still our signature win at 29th in the RPI but in SEC play they have nowhere to go but down in RPI unless they upset Kentucky. Syracuse is 55, Pittsburgh is 71, and we're 75th. And we got crushed by a South Carolina team that is falling apart. The numbers are not in our favors. By all means support the Tigers - but don't predicate that on the notion that there is "no reason this team can't make the tournament" because there are a lot of reasons this team will probably not make the tournament.
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Hall of Famer [21763]
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Unfortunately, got 3 things against them
Jan 18, 2015, 8:46 AM
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1. Road trips. Good point already mentioned. This team is bound to struggle with subpar teams on the road due to environment and overall lack of production on the offensive end. These multiple 5 and 7 minute scoring droughts will give any team you face a chance to beat you, especially on the road.
2. The ACC Tournament. I would think this team wouldn't have the luxury of a first round bye. To get an opening round win might be a stretch depending on whom will draw. Then, if we do win, playing a top-4 seed that the ACC WANTS TO WIN. We all know the ACC's agenda. And that ain't gonna help our bubble team.
3. We aren't a basketball "name brand." Why did NC State get in last year? Name across the chest. Not really that great of a team, but they have favorable postseason history to bank on. National titles, Jimmy V., North Carolina basketball school, national fan interest... all that factors in. If Clemson is a bubble team, they are going to get passed over by the "sexier" teams.
Yesterday's game was very encouraging. If the Tigers can play d with that constant intensity, they can hang with anybody on that schedule. I just want Coach Brownell to keep working on that offense and develop a second consistent scorer. I'm thinking we are almost to a point where we can bank on Blossomgame getting about 15 points a game. But who else is consistently going to give us a double digit effort?
~JKB
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Scout Team [196]
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Re: Unfortunately, got 3 things against them
Jan 18, 2015, 3:48 PM
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I am very encouraged by their play in the last four games and I feel CBB is the perfect coach for us. That being said our best bet this year is the NIT and next year the NCAA.
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Legend [16256]
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We would have to go 10-3 the rest of the way in league play
Jan 18, 2015, 4:01 PM
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and make the ACC tourney semi-finals at best to make it into the NCAA tournament with a 22-11 record. That's not out of the realm of possibility, but well against the odds. The 5% chance of an NCAA bid this year is probably about right at this point. An 18-12 regular season is realistic though, plus 1-1 in the ACC tourney, but that's NIT territory.
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All-TigerNet [10904]
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Odds of making the NCAA tournament this year
Jan 18, 2015, 4:33 PM
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are just slightly better than me winning the Powerball lottery. That said, I am encouraged by our play recently. But we would have to consistently play as well as the first have yesterday, to have a chance at the tournament. That would be too much to expect.
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