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YOUR BALANCE
Playoff Chances
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Playoff Chances


Oct 15, 2017, 5:31 PM

If TCU and Penn St go undefeated and Alabama and UGA both are undefeated, both SEC teams will get in regardless of which one wins the SECC game unless it is a one sided game which isn’t likely to be the case. If it plays out that way It would be hard to argue with that decision.

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Not happening***


Oct 15, 2017, 5:33 PM



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yeah, Im thinking about that SEC championship


Oct 15, 2017, 5:56 PM

Lets say that game Is #1 vs #2, then one loss by either of those teams doesnt look as bad as losing to Syracuse.

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Incorrect IMO


Oct 15, 2017, 6:01 PM

1 Loss SEC Non-champion will not get in over a 1 Loss Conference Champion. Now, if TWO of the P5 conference champions have 2 losses then a 1-loss non-champ has a shot, but too early to predict if that might happen.

You are leaving out the fact that the committee actually values conference champions and quality of wins - unlike the AP/Coach voters who primarily look at record and timing of losses. Then once the first committee ranking comes out, most of the voters in both polls adjust their ballots to look more like the ranking. It happens EVERY year.

For example - had the committee ranked prior to our loss to Syracuse, then I GUARANTEE we would have been #1 over Alabama and several voters would flip their votes to us as #1 the following week. As is now, I think the committee would put us 5th or 6th because we still have the best pair of wins overall (we just also have the worst loss among top teams). TCU has the next best pair of wins that may be as good as ours. Oklahoma has the best win, but also has the only top-team loss that compares to ours. Wisconsin and Penn State haven't played anybody and Miami only has two wins over fairly good teams. Georgia beat Notre Dame and Alabama beat two fairly good teams.

Honestly - if the committee was ranking TODAY, I think it would look something like this:
1) TCU (two excellent wins, undefeated)
2) Alabama (two fairly good wins, undefeated, dominating)
3) Georgia (one excellent win, undefeated, fairly dominating)
4) Penn State (undefeated, good by eye test)
5) Miami (two fairly good wins, undefeated, not dominating)
6) Clemson (two excellent wins, one fairly good win, one bad loss)
7) Wisconsin (undefeated, untested, not great by eye test)
8) Oklahoma (best win, bad loss, not that impressive in other games)
9) Ohio State (best loss, dominating but untested in other games)
10) USC (quality loss, two fairly good wins)

If I'm using my crystal ball, I'd predict the following as the final 4 (alternate conference winners in parenthesis):
1) Alabama (or Georgia)
2) TCU (or Oklahoma)
3) Clemson (or Miami)
4) Ohio State (or Penn State)

If Penn State got in over Ohio State, then I'd move them to 3 and the Clemson-Miami winner to 4.
If Penn State AND Oklahoma won, then I'd have it as 1) Alabama/GA 2) Penn State 3) Clemson/Miami 4) Oklahoma

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Re: Incorrect IMO


Oct 15, 2017, 6:05 PM

1 team that will get the benefit of the doubt and doesn’t have to win a conference championship is Notre Dame

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Re: Incorrect IMO


Oct 15, 2017, 6:11 PM

especially if UGa runs the table and that is their only loss

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Would be interesting if...


Oct 15, 2017, 6:20 PM

Alabama wins out and beats previously undefeated Georgia in SEC Championship
Notre Dame wins out and Miami wins the ACC, potentially USC (who they would also beat) wins the Pac 12
Big 12 Champ In
Big 10 Champ In

Who gets the 4th spot?
1 loss Georgia with one loss to Alabama and no Conference Champ, but win over Notre Dame
1 loss Notre Dame with one loss to Georgia, wins over 1-2 Conference Champs that would be kept out of the playoffs
1 loss Miami with one loss to Notre Dame, ACC Conference Champ

That would be quite the pickle for the committee. By the guidelines, it would probably be Miami, but Notre Dame would feel snubbed. But if Notre Dame was picked, then Georgia would feel snubbed. Very similar to last year's Big 10 situation.

Hopefully this DOESN'T happen because it would mean that Clemson would have to lose to NC State or Miami.

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Re: Incorrect IMO


Oct 15, 2017, 6:13 PM [ in reply to Re: Incorrect IMO ]

True - they have a chance to take out USC and Miami ahead of them. If they can do that and also beat NC State, Stanford, etc. then they will have a chance. They probably would need to have Miami or NC State win the ACC after they beat both of them. They'd basically get in as the defacto ACC champs in that scenario.

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Re: Playoff Chances


Oct 15, 2017, 6:02 PM

Sounds to me that the SEC championship would be a wild card round where loser go home......that conference isn't strong enough to get two teams in.

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Thinking about things that are not right in front


Oct 15, 2017, 6:08 PM

of us is exactly why we're in his position. If any member of the team reads this kind of stuff or worse, incorporates it into their thinking, then it will infiltrate play on the field. The playoff picture right now is about the 112th thing on the list of things to concern ourselves with. Thinking about other teams schedules and "good" wins or "bad" losses is just silly.

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Re: Thinking about things that are not right in front


Oct 15, 2017, 6:44 PM

Correct - warned about this very thing last week when some were looking way down the road to NCS

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Re: Playoff Chances


Oct 15, 2017, 6:14 PM

I don't believe any conference will get two teams in the playoff. The conference championship game will serve as a defacto national championship elimination game if there are two teams from the same conference ranked in the top 4 during conference championship week.

I'm also not convinced that the leg humpers won't lose a game between now and the end of the regular season. UGA has only played two teams with a pulse (App State, Notre Dame) while the rest are, for the most part, bottom dwellers. Even USuC will be a step up from the competition they have faced to date. Assume UGA wins out the regular season - who will be their signature win for the season? Notre Dame - who will probably have 3 losses by the end of the regular season?

UGA has the easiest path to the SEC Championship game but their resume will be too weak to justify putting them in the playoffs after they lose to Alabama in the SEC Champ game.

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UGA and Alabama can't go undefeateed.*****


Oct 15, 2017, 6:15 PM



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Replies: 12
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