The 2014 "What If" rundown (a bit long) ...

Mar 5, 2014, 10:18 AM

Now that hope is springing eternal in basketball again ...

As we all know, there's only one thing Clemson can do on its own to have a shot at the Dance: beat Pitt. But that feat alone won't get the Tigers onto the Dance Card. By beating Pitt, the RPI Wizard still has us at 58.

Sure, winning a couple of ACC tourney games would likely get us there, but it would help if a handful of folks (like 10 of them) above us could stumble a bit as well.

So, with the help of RPI Wizard and a little too much spare time, here is what happens if 10 teams in our path can lose one more game than expected:

1. Dayton (with expected loss to St. Louis and a tossup loss to Richmond) The Flyers are currently in the upper 40s RPI. A loss to the Billikens (NCAA lock) is expected, but Richmond (another bubble team) could put a serious crimp in Dayton's hopes. End result: Dayton 20-11 (8-8 A10, RPI of 58)

2. Richmond (with expected loss to VCU and win over Dayton) VCU is a lock, but a Richmond win over Dayton wouldn't get them above Clemson in RPI. They'd by 19-12 (9-7 A10) with an rpi of 60.

3-4. Nebraska (with losses to Indiana and Wisconsin) and Indiana (with a split to Nebraska and Michigan). The Huskers would still be viable with a split against these teams. But if Indiana can beat NU at home and Wisconsin dispatches Nebraska as expected, a 17-13 RPI below 60 Nebraska would be less palpable than Clemson. An Indiana split (beat Nebraska, lose to Michigan) keeps Indiana in the 70s RPI at 18-13. We can live with that.

5. Arkansas (with a split of Ole Miss and Bama) Remember when folks considered our loss to Arkansas a bad one? Not now. Arkansas is in the mid 50s, and if they sweep Ole Miss and Bama (which is entirely possible), they'd be in the upper 40s RPI. However, if the Hogs lose either game to inferior competition, they tumble into the 60s.

6. Missouri (with losses to Texas A&M and Tennessee) The other Tigers had had a rough stretch lately, with losses to Georgia and Bama. They're expected to lose to Tennessee as well, an if a weak A&M team can knock Mizzou over, their 20-11 RPI in the mid 60s would dump them well below Clemson.

7. Boise St. At 17-10 and two weak foes to go, the Broncs need to win out just to stay in the mid 50s. A loss to either Nevada or Air Force would plummet their hopes.

8. Cal (18-11, 9-7 PAC 12) has two losable games remaining, vs. Utah and Stanford. Utah is out and Stanford is in, with Cal in the middle. If the Bears drop both, they skid to about 60 or so.

9. Florida State (17-11, 8-8 ACC) Perhaps no team besides Pitt threatens our Dance hopes like the Noles. A week ago, I'd have said a split vs. BC and Syracuse would be likely ... but the Cuse are playing like crap lately. We really need Syracuse (or BC, but I'm not holding my breath there) to return to form and take down FSU. If they can, we slip ahead of FSU in RPI, in conference and in head-to-head. In fact, as York noted the other day, if that happens the Noles sole impressive win would be ... Clemson.

10. Georgetown (17-12, 8-9 Big East) We need to watch the Hoyas ... not for what they've done, but what they can do. With a current RPI in the mid 50s, they just beat Creighton, with Villanova to end the season. A win pushes them into the 40s. A loss drops them closer to 60.

A few other teams that are currently above us aren't worth worrying about, because their opponents won't help them move ahead. La. Tech, San Francisco, St. Mary's and Belmont are all stuck in the 60s, unless the teams ahead of them fall. And if they fall, we all rise....Clemson, however, would rise higher with a Pitt win under its belt.

So .... If we get the help described above, Clemson's RPI should pull the Tigers into the Top 50. Even with the loss to Wake Forest, even with the loss at ND and the loss at Auburn. We have a real chance of being where we need to be.

A win over a weak team in the ACC opener wouldn't help, unless other bubble teams fell in the opening round of their respective conference games.

The second round of the tourney, then would either seal the deal or have us sweating bubbles and bullets on Selection Sunday.

But none of it matters if we don't beat Pitt. Make it so, Tigers!