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Some keep saying we're going to be like Italy re: COVID-19
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Some keep saying we're going to be like Italy re: COVID-19


Mar 21, 2020, 4:17 PM
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But the data from the cases timelines say otherwise.

The US and Italy both saw their first travel related case about the same time in January. According to the chart on wikipedia (based on official reports), the US had 3 cases on January 25th while Italy did not have 3 cases until February 6th.... 12 days later. You're talking about 12 days head start for something that would take off and grow near-exponentially.

This says we have done a much better job of keeping new cases out and/or keeping existing cases from spreading. But I keep hearing that Italy has been testing more that we have; hence, they should be in better shape that we are.





You can find both of these timelines at wikipedia. Pages are titled "2020 coronavirus pandemic in Italy" and "2020 coronavirus pandemic in the United States"

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Re: Some keep saying we're going to be like Italy re: COVID-19


Mar 21, 2020, 4:27 PM

We're trying desperately to not become Italy. Italy didn't heed the warnings and they're infrastructure is not nearly as advanced as ours.

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Re: Some keep saying we're going to be like Italy re: COVID-19


Mar 21, 2020, 4:43 PM

Italy's train system is more advanced than ours. We travelled the whole country by train, very convenient and affordable. No matter where you want to go, many available departure times throughout the day and advance ticket purchase not usually required. Trains arrived and departed on time, which was odd since their culture generally doesn't put a lot of value on promptness.

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Re: Some keep saying we're going to be like Italy re: COVID-19


Mar 21, 2020, 4:53 PM

The fast red trains are awesome.

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"Anybody that says Coach Brownell is the best coach to come through Clemson is going to start an argument." -JP Hall


Most of Western Europe has better infrastructure than the US


Mar 21, 2020, 8:20 PM [ in reply to Re: Some keep saying we're going to be like Italy re: COVID-19 ]

- highways, railways, power distribution, etc. You still have a lot of trains where the toilet empties onto the cross ties, though.

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I love trains, but sounds like an awesome way to spread


Mar 21, 2020, 8:53 PM [ in reply to Re: Some keep saying we're going to be like Italy re: COVID-19 ]

a virus

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Re: Some keep saying we're going to be like Italy re: COVID-19


Mar 21, 2020, 4:34 PM

Northern Italy has a lot of immigrants from wuhan who flew back and forth for Chinese New Year. The government also held a “hug a Chinese day” to show soladarity lol. Of course the media here does not report this

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For many countries, healthcare systems aside,


Mar 21, 2020, 4:44 PM

The only tie that binds is our species. After that, geography, density, and cultural differences are dramatically different. It's not a simple apples to apples comparison...'dimension' has to be factored in...somehow. (Probably calculus based, so...I'll step aside!)

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Re: For many countries, healthcare systems aside,


Mar 21, 2020, 5:03 PM

Correct. Italy has always been known for spreading diseases rapidly. Look up the history Povelgia island. Their geography layout, density and tourism makes it a prone breeding ground for all types of contagious diseases. Most people don’t even own cars. They ride bicycles everywhere because everywhere you need to go there, you could do it with a bicycle.

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The data over the next two weeks will be critical.


Mar 21, 2020, 5:48 PM

Those charts are 11 days old. We really haven't started testing at a high level. We are flying blind. With the screening debacle in the nation's ports and airports last weekend and the two week incubation period for the virus, I would think over the next week we'll see our case load explode.

I hope it doesn't materialize.

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It is encouraging that our death rate from the virus is far less than theirs.


Mar 21, 2020, 8:24 PM

I am sure we will exceed their number of diagnosed cases, simply because we are ramping up testing and we have a substantially larger population. However, I think we will benefit from social distancing and better healthcare resources, and our death rate will continue to go down.

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Re: It is encouraging that our death rate from the virus is far less than theirs.


Mar 22, 2020, 1:20 AM

As NC has increased testing, positive results have actually decreased...as of 2/21 according to NCDHHS we are at a 3.48% positive for those tested state wide.

Hopefully this spring weather, physical distancing, and hand washing will bring this down farther.

There are also recent studies showing COVID-19 wasn't as deadly in Wuhan as originally thought, and has a slower transmission rate than originally thought.

This is all good news if it proves accurate.

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The US will have a million cases by this time next week, IF


Mar 21, 2020, 8:47 PM [ in reply to The data over the next two weeks will be critical. ]

we can get enough testing done!

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Seems legit.


Mar 21, 2020, 8:51 PM

Red China says they only have 81,000 cases at this point, after months of spreading.
We’ll probably go from 25,000 to a million in one week. Easy.

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