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COVID-19 model brigade.....
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COVID-19 model brigade.....


Apr 7, 2020, 2:37 PM

Boy those scary models sure are accurate!! The fear mongers aren’t going to like this!

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NO!! Models based upon insufficient data can't be wrong!!***


Apr 7, 2020, 2:42 PM



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"When I was young, I was sure of many things; now there are only two things of which I am sure: one is, that I am a miserable sinner; and the other, that Christ is an all-sufficient Saviour. He is well-taught who learns these two lessons." -John Newton


Re: NO!! Models based upon insufficient data can't be wrong!!***


Apr 7, 2020, 3:37 PM

First, I'm elated to see the actual data is well below the models. That is great!

Second, it seems that this data could also be interpreted as showing the success of all the precautions and that they are effective.

I'm a little confused as to what you would rather see? Should we lessen the precautionary actions to keep the actual data on par with the model.

Aren't all models based on insufficient data?

In these situations, the models are supposed to be made based on conservative assumptions. Not worse case necessarily but using assumptions that ensure overestimation. If a model produced underestimated resources it would be useless regarding preparation efforts.

Based on the fact that these models had to be created with little or no actual data (only theoretical ideas of how the virus is spread and caught and affects people), it is not surprising that the actual trends are currently below the models. That doesn't mean the models are flawed. Nor does it mean that we should not be doing what we are doing.

No one knows for certain anything about how this is going to play out. What we do know is that it is a undetectable killer that can spread exponentially, so with just a little less actions the actual data could easily be double, triple or 10 times what is showing right now.

Also, with exponential growth, the actual data could just be shifted on the timeline and the current data might be aligned with the model just with a later start date.

The bottom line is, the estimates or the precautionary actions are directed at what's best for everyone and have nothing to do with how it affects individuals. The best we can do is realize that the fear mongers are wrong and the "do-nothing" crowd is wrong, but we can try to be sympathetic to those that are put in the position of dealing with those infected with this virus and those in the position of actually having to protect those that are not yet infected.

Sorry for getting on a soap box but I don't feel this is a topic where choosing sides is a healthy approach. we just need to be helpful, tolerant, and count our blessings that we are not the one having to make such unprecedented decisions that affect so many.

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+1000000***


Apr 7, 2020, 3:57 PM



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Re: NO!! Models based upon insufficient data can't be wrong!!***


Apr 7, 2020, 4:03 PM [ in reply to Re: NO!! Models based upon insufficient data can't be wrong!!*** ]

Pretty sure the models took into account social distancing.

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If you meant to imply that I am not happy that the models'


Apr 7, 2020, 5:38 PM [ in reply to Re: NO!! Models based upon insufficient data can't be wrong!!*** ]

predictions are trending positively, you are mistaken.

My implication is that there were those out there who continually used the predictions to shame and, unfortunately create panic and fear. Thus, all of the hoarding of materials and goods. I knew all along the models were based on inconclusive data and that further numbers were needed. And, the Chinese government was not going to cooperate.

My take on the whole matter is that common sense, which appears to be lacking in society, has to be exercised. There needs to be a balance between population protection, economic concerns, and protection of individual liberties. I did not want us to turn into a police state creating further fear.

Like most everyone, I hope and pray a medical remedy will be found sooner rather than later. And, I hope and pray things can return to normal with a rational plan should this happen again in the future so that 1/3 of the people do not lose jobs and small businesses can stay afloat.

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"When I was young, I was sure of many things; now there are only two things of which I am sure: one is, that I am a miserable sinner; and the other, that Christ is an all-sufficient Saviour. He is well-taught who learns these two lessons." -John Newton


Re: If you meant to imply that I am not happy that the models'


Apr 7, 2020, 6:46 PM

You can never be too worried about a virus that kills , that we have no immunity to and that spreads around the world inside of a month .
If that doesn't scare us then what does ?

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DB23


Re: If you meant to imply that I am not happy that the models'


Apr 7, 2020, 6:49 PM

Eh, it's likely been spreading for 5 months now.

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Re: If you meant to imply that I am not happy that the models'


Apr 7, 2020, 6:58 PM

What makes you say that?

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Re: If you meant to imply that I am not happy that the models'


Apr 7, 2020, 6:58 PM [ in reply to Re: If you meant to imply that I am not happy that the models' ]

What makes you say that?

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Re: If you meant to imply that I am not happy that the models'


Apr 7, 2020, 8:37 PM [ in reply to Re: If you meant to imply that I am not happy that the models' ]

There again is great uncertainty .

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DB23


Re: If you meant to imply that I am not happy that the models'


Apr 7, 2020, 6:54 PM [ in reply to Re: If you meant to imply that I am not happy that the models' ]

Stop it Dug, you're employing rational thinking and common sense.

That don't go 'round here.

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A thoughtful, rational, non-retaliatory post?


Apr 7, 2020, 7:54 PM [ in reply to Re: NO!! Models based upon insufficient data can't be wrong!!*** ]

What a day!

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Re: COVID-19 model brigade.....


Apr 7, 2020, 3:07 PM

You set yourself up with this one. Who do you think you are, trying to reason with the panic stricken? There’s no place for such nonsense here. I like your style. But the “doom and bloomers” are not going to put up with this. Fasten your seatbelt, my Tiger friend. Go Tigers!

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Interested to hear more about the panic stricken.


Apr 7, 2020, 3:10 PM

Would you share some common traits and behaviors of these people because i don't seem to be encountering any. Maybe they are too scared to leave their homes?

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If it helps, I think most who come off as “doom and gloom”


Apr 7, 2020, 7:59 PM [ in reply to Re: COVID-19 model brigade..... ]

Don’t want to spread fear, they just want people to take things seriously. The “it’s just the flu” or “everyone just get sick already and let nature take its course” or “China engineered the virus” crews make it feel like the general public thinks it’s no big deal. No need to be scared or panic buy - just be smart is all! I’m thrilled the S.C. numbers aren’t worse than they are currently. If anyone is interested, for all the back and forth regarding hydroxychloroquine, most hospitals are using it given the hopeful benefit and low risk involved

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this is fantastic news


Apr 7, 2020, 3:54 PM

be happy.

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Or it could have to do with 97% of the country being under


Apr 7, 2020, 4:02 PM

stay-at-home orders?

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Re: Or it could have to do with 97% of the country being under


Apr 7, 2020, 6:51 PM

The models were supposed to take this into account. The 100,000 deaths figure in the US was based on these measures being taken.

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Re: Or it could have to do with 97% of the country being under


Apr 7, 2020, 7:57 PM

The models can’t take this into account because we spook don’t have an accurate number of actual infected due to ineffective testing—and stay at home orders have varied by state and county for weeks.

It’s safe to say that actual COMFIRMED numbers are still significantly lower than actuals. California still has 80,000 tests on backlog

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Re: COVID-19 model brigade.....


Apr 7, 2020, 4:29 PM

It looks like we are on the lower end of the tolerance. That is great news.

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Now do Global Warming.***


Apr 7, 2020, 5:55 PM



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"Anybody that says Coach Brownell is the best coach to come through Clemson is going to start an argument." -JP Hall


Re: Now do Global Warming.***


Apr 7, 2020, 6:29 PM

Using the same scientists data that has predicted the world would end every 10 years since the 1970s?

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Reminds me of a local home inspector that I chewed out about


Apr 7, 2020, 5:06 PM

6 or 7 years ago after he wrote up my 3rd house in 6 months for 2 things. First, he said the chimney was falling away from the house and second he said the heat exchanger was bad. Well sir, once again I hired a structural engineer for the chimney and a certified HVAC tech on the gaspack. Both experts once again said their was no problem. When I called the Home Inspector to tell him, that once again, all items he had written up WE GOOD TO GO, he said," That's great news!". I said, "No sir, it is not great news. For the third time in 6 months you have put my sellers to great expense for a problem that did not exist in the first place".....

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Re: Reminds me of a local home inspector that I chewed out about


Apr 7, 2020, 8:12 PM

??? Confused. Not sure what anology you're using. Are you trying to say the models are wrong, or are you trying to say there was never a problem to begin with...

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The condecenscion in the home inspector's voice did not


Apr 7, 2020, 8:33 PM

come through in print. He was gleeful! He was like I should be happy the problem was not as big as he said and we could still sell the house. After 35 years as a Realtor I am some what of a skeptic. The media loves hurricanes, floods, fires, tornados, etc. But all of them combined can't touch this. They have had ready made news and audiences 24/7 for some time now.....and if...IFfffff after all is said and done we are lucky enough to get out with thousands less deaths than they have been predicting for weeks....you can bet your ### they won't apologize for working us all up in a frenzy....

Message was edited by: Spud®


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Re: COVID-19 model brigade.....


Apr 7, 2020, 6:43 PM

It's why they're called models man , and not historical fact .
I'm sure you're intent was not to come off like you're disappointed in the fact that fewer thousands will die during this pandemic , but it sounds like it when you joke about something as serious as this really is .

Take care .

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DB23


Re: COVID-19 model brigade.....


Apr 7, 2020, 6:53 PM

That's great! It means the social distancing and 97% of Americans staying home is working.

Be happy about it.

Less people dying isnt some kind of political victory.

As for the gloom and doomers, it's unfortunate when they believed Trump

when he said up to 240,000 Americans could die.

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Re: COVID-19 model brigade.....


Apr 7, 2020, 6:59 PM

By the way, did you happen to read the report that Peter Navarro told Trump is January that a Pandemic is spreading that could effect millions of Americans?

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TigerRag86 told me 2 million people were going to die and he had the data


Apr 7, 2020, 7:38 PM

So I’m going with him. He has a PhD and is making tons of money right now.

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Re: TigerRag86 told me 2 million people were going to die and he had the data


Apr 7, 2020, 7:58 PM

Link?

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Re: COVID-19 model brigade.....


Apr 7, 2020, 7:59 PM

The actual is within the confidence interval. This is a non story. Someone doesn’t understand how statistical modeling works

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america


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See my earlier post how Scott Adams predicted


Apr 7, 2020, 8:10 PM

the two versions will never subside. a) we did all this and now the numbers are much better b) it was all a hoax and few were ever going to die.

The interesting number we may never have is how many would have died if we did nothing? If it kills 1% and we didn't halt spread to develop treatments and also overran hospitals...1 or 2 million in US then?

Let's all be thankful and hope for an orderly return to normal soon.

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Re: See my earlier post how Scott Adams predicted


Apr 7, 2020, 8:17 PM

Exactly. 60k+ will be dead at the end of this month and we’ve all been locked inside. Anyone who thinks that if we just lived our lives like normal for the next two years (2008 H1N1) and wouldn’t have >1M deaths by the end of 2021 is delusional.

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science, don’t argue with it. Climate change models


Apr 7, 2020, 8:47 PM

Either. Signed, China, DNC

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I saw “models” and thought there would be pigs


Apr 7, 2020, 9:22 PM

You got me!

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