Projected Committee Rankings...

Nov 1, 2015, 4:43 PM

Just based on what I've seen from the playoff committee in the past, I'd guess this is how it'll go:

1) LSU (8-0)
Not SEC bias - keep in mind, the committee doesn't have a contract with ESPN or the SEC - but they do have the most impressive resume...wins on the road over a Top-25 Mississippi State (I will agree that MS should not be ranked, and is no better than NC State, but that's neither here nor there) and a win at home over Top-10 Florida. The committee kept harping on "resume" and LSU's, right now, is the best on paper. Of course, I also think LSU will get curb-stomped by Alabama the very next week and that will be that for LSU's playoff and title hopes. What's of particular interest to me is their passing game, which ranks just 120th in the country despite the pundits' assertion that the Bayou Bengals' passing has "looked better recently." Guys: that bar is low. No matter. LSU gets to be king...for five days, anyhow.

2) Clemson (8-0)
Clemson has a win over Top-10 Notre Dame and if you look at the records of our opponents, everybody we've played is over .500 except for maybe FCS opponent Wofford, whose record I didn't bother to check and who the committee probably won't either. I could see the committee looking at Clemson's metrics and overall strength of schedule and deciding we're the most complete team in the country, but I think Clemson will have to beat FSU - and LSU will have to lose to Alabama - before the committee bumps Clemson up to #1. Wait a week; it'll happen.

3) Baylor (7-0)
Blowout kings of the country, but the committee will not be impressed - at all - by strength of schedule. Unless the Big-12 does actually get an undefeated team through, their cream-puff scheduling and lack of a conference championship game could - and should - bite them again. It could bump Baylor down as low as #4, IMHO, if the committee looks with too much disdain upon Baylor's opponents. Which they frankly deserve. Their strength of schedule is 121st in the country according to S&P+, which takes some doing considering there's just 127 teams. Sun Belt teams (literally) play tougher schedules than that.

4) Michigan State (8-0)
No, they have not looked impressive, but they do have a win (however ugly) over a Top-25 opponent, on the road, against Michigan, and that will give them the nod over Ohio State, though Spartie's lack of form will probably drop them below Baylor. You could see the committee pick Alabama over Spartie - which will start a whole new round of "SEC bias! SEC bias!" cries, but the bottom line is that Spartie just doesn't look that good and Alabama is just plain better, which is obvious to everyone with eyes...and the committee has eyes. S&P+ is distinctly unimpressed; the Spartans rank just 23rd, so according to the math nerds Michigan State is living on borrowed time until somebody exposes them.

5) Alabama (7-1)
That home loss to Ole Miss will haunt them a bit, but the bottom line there was it was a flaky win by Ole Miss that required some truly Forest Gump-level plays like the ricochet-off-a-helmet-for-a-TD for Alabama to lose. They've been otherwise (mostly) impressive, crushing A&M and Georgia, though that unconvincing weaksauce win over Tennessee last week may stick in the committee's craw some.

6) TCU (7-0)
They've won, and scored a boatload of points, though they've also won against The Sisters Of The Poor and they've given up a boatload of points in the process. Strength of schedule will not help them, or anybody in the Big 12 this year. Their strength of schedule per S&P+...wait for it, it's 111th, which actually puts them ahead of most of their compatriots in the Big 12.

7) Ohio State (7-0)
The defending champs at #7? I think so...if the committee is truly evaluating off just what's been done this year. The Buckeyes have played nobody - their schedule is truly the very definition of "embarrassing", particularly for a defending national champ, check it - and they looked like crap in the process. They have played one - repeat (1) - team with a winning record, 7-2 Penn State...and if you look at who Penn State has played, you wonder why the Nittany Lions aren't in FCS. If the Buckeyes are ranked any higher, the committee simply isn't using its criteria from last year. I do think Ohio State ultimately makes the playoffs owing largely to the palookas in front of them, but I also think they get a major wake-up call from the committee on Tuesday.

8) Notre Dame (7-1)
Notre Dame has only one loss, that being the one where they played "Clemson in a monsoon" - while of course, Clemson played on a dry field - and they do have victories over Temple, Southern Cal, and a surprisingly good Navy squad. I personally think they make the playoffs; they're better than Pitt or Stanford...and I'm calling it now, both the Pac-12 and SEC get left out this year, which will cause all manner of squalling...despite the fact that the top dogs from the Pac-12 and SEC just ain't that good this year.

9) Oklahoma State (8-0)
I could see the committee bumping them ahead of Notre Dame, but the undefeated Cowboys have this problem, and that is, like everybody else in the Big-12 they've played absolutely nobody and they've looked like crap doing it. It's going to be fun watching Big 12 victims fall screaming off the sacrificial alter in November (and December, keep in mind the Big 12 extends its season an extra week to keep its teams playing in the regular season while everybody else is playing championship title games, which incidentally also gives the Big 12 an extra bye week in addition to the fact that their OOC schedules would be embarassing even to SEC athletic directors). OSU, Oklahoma, Baylor, and TCU will then proceed to eat one another...and if none of them succeed in going 4-0 in the four legitimate games they actually play, the Big 12 will get left out...again, which they will richly deserve. How unimpressive are the metrics? S&P+ rates OSU as #36 in the country...and just 116th in strength of schedule.

10) Iowa (8-0)
They did beat Pitt, with a late figgie in the dying seconds. They are unbeaten. I suppose in this modern era of poll-driven college football, that qualifies them as a Top-10 team. S&P+ sort of agrees, rating them #16 in the country despite their ersatz form in the eye test.

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the SEC is the best and the ACC is the worst. I'm not sure there's any way to prove that without the hangover from the preseason polls. I'm not sure there aren't three teams in the ACC that can handle LSU. That doesn't include ND.

"...The College Football Playoff is not an officially sanctioned championship event by the NCAA, the sport's governing body. Because of this, Division I FBS football is the only NCAA sport in which a yearly champion is not determined by an NCAA championship event and an official NCAA National Championship is not given.[7][8]...

The television broadcast rights to the playoff games are owned by ESPN through at least the 2025 season.[10] The network reportedly paid $7.3 billion overall for the 12-year TV rights.[11]..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff

"SEC Network is an American digital cable and satellite television channel that is owned by ESPN Inc., a joint venture between The Walt Disney Company (which operates the network, through its 80% controlling ownership interest) and the Hearst Corporation (which holds the remaining 20% interest). The channel is dedicated to coverage of collegiate sports sanctioned by the Southeastern Conference (SEC) including live and recorded event telecasts, news, analysis programs, and other content focusing on the conference's member schools.[1][2]..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEC_Network

Bama above ND? I gave you a point just for all the thought you put into the rankings. You're probably right about the way this will start and finish.

Do you think Bama will jump us when the beat LSU?

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nice write up Quoz***

Sounds good to me

Re: Sounds good to me

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The LSU ranking is predicated on the assumption that...

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Between Quozzel, Tiger Bry & Tiger Woods - why would anyone

Steele-Hoods sounds scronger.

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Good eval.... +1.***

I agree with your 4... only diff I think is CU #1 and LSU #2***

Good review. BC is 3-6 though, so not everyone we've played

Florida or Alabama?

I don't think there anyway they put Ohio State that low

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