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Replies: 11
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Heisman Winner [119554]
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Ok, so my Portfolio Mgr has been sick and his doc
Mar 26, 2020, 10:35 AM
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Thinks he has the corona virus. But get this: Doc told him not to have the test done!
Wonder how many other cases like this have occurred in S.C.?
NC has tested 5 times the numbers as compared to S.C., but the positives are similar.
###, SC?
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Oculus Spirit [97649]
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Only the severely sick are being tested.
Mar 26, 2020, 10:39 AM
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If he has a mild case, he won't be tested. Pretty much the same everywhere.
Remember that when you look at the running daily numbers. Those are people VERY sick, with a majority needing oxygen and a hospital. Total number is who knows....but it's many multiples higher than the official test result count.
My dad is in a skilled nursing home. He had a 99.8 fever, developed a cough, o2 down to 87, and needed to be put on 2 liters of o2. Not a big problem. Could be anything. He wasn't tested. Next day fever broke and he's off o2 now. Who knows what he had. But even he, in his current situation, didn't "qualify" to be tested.
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Heisman Winner [119554]
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Then why is NC testing so many?
Mar 26, 2020, 10:41 AM
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Do they have a different set of rules?
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Oculus Spirit [97649]
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They have more tests, and a twice the population
Mar 26, 2020, 10:43 AM
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At our SC levels, they should test twice as many people, again using our same criteria in SC.
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Oculus Spirit [93604]
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That's because we don't have enough test.
Mar 26, 2020, 10:44 AM
[ in reply to Only the severely sick are being tested. ] |
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The stats in deaths and cases won't mean chit if we can't determine how many recuperated. We should be testing to find every person who is suspected of having the virus.
Who knows how many test we need?
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Oculus Spirit [97649]
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Our testing has value, even if limited.
Mar 26, 2020, 11:09 AM
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What you are likely seeing here, was seen in China, and was seen elsewhere. Testing was only done for severe cases, and as a result the total numbers we see, here, in Italy, in China, and in most places, is the number of people severely ill, with complications. And even that limited testing does have benefits because it shows the total universe of people sick enough for hospital admission (eg. China). From that, and an accurate death count, you can extrapolate statistics on the percentages of people who require ICU care, supplemental oxygen, and ventilators, and an accurate death rate for those with complications (severe cases). That has value. If someone comes in the ER unable to breathe, you have good stats to address them. However, you don't have a clue about the whole outbreak. That's the down side. You can also extrapolate the total number of cases as a percentage of the total population, and come up with a percentage of people who become severely ill. For China, roughly .006% of the total population of 1.3 billion became ill enough to be admitted to a hospital. And for them they set hospital admission criteria at an o2 level of 92 or less (needing supplemental oxygen). For the limited testing to be meaningful, you have to set standards that can be addressed with the limited testing. If you don't, then the testing is statistically meaningless.
Without literally tens of millions of tests, you can't even estimate the total exposed population. Hopefully it's 100 million now or more. The higher the number of people who have this who do not have severe symptoms and get a test, the better. If you have limited tests, it is best to set a standard for the data to be collected, to keep the data clean (consistent) and meaningful.
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All-TigerNet [11130]
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You paid attention in statistics, good on ya.***
Mar 26, 2020, 11:46 AM
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Oculus Spirit [97649]
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Only time I made an A in college math.
Mar 26, 2020, 11:54 AM
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Helps that wife's a bonafide statistician, among other things.
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Heisman Winner [119554]
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Oculus Spirit [97649]
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As of last night he was better.
Mar 26, 2020, 10:49 AM
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He's had episodes liek that before. Any normal cough/cold will send his o2 low. But they said he has to have a higher fever, worse cough, and lower o2 level to be tested. Even before that he would get a flu test, and even a chest x-ray first before the test. It's THAT scarce.
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Orange Blooded [3508]
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Re: Ok, so my Portfolio Mgr has been sick and his doc
Mar 26, 2020, 11:02 AM
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Same for a coworker of mine in Atlanta...whom I had dinner with two weeks ago. I’ve been on 14 day quarantine since.
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Orange Blooded [2692]
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Replies: 11
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