Ohio State Scouting

Dec 26, 2016, 2:11 PM

It's that time folks. It is FINALLY game week for the Fiesta Bowl. Lots going on this week so I am posting this today. Without further ado, here we go (note: this is over 15 pages long in Word, so it is LONG, but well worth the read).

Keys

Offense

1) Average 4+ yards on 1st down plays

-One tendency from OSU is that the majority of their blitzes on defense take place on 2nd and 3rd down and LONGS (long usually means 7+yards, for an example of this, go to the 10:37 mark of the Michigan game link above). How can we stay one step ahead (aka balanced)? Positive yards on first down. Our OC’s have a tendency to attack down the field on first down (this should not be a secret to anyone) and I am sure OSU has picked this up from watching our film. The downside to this is when we don’t pick up any yards. 2nd and 10+ is what OSU wants because it starts to limit how we will attack. 2nd and 6 or less keeps the entire playbook open and keeps the offense from being predictable. So who is this key really drawing attention to? Deshaun? Wayne? The Receiving Corps? Nope, this is for the offensive line. Mitch, Taylor, Jay, Tyrone, and Sean, this is in your hands. OSU’s defensive line are not slouches, but the left side has been shown to be knocked back at times. Looking at all of our big uglies, but especially at Crowder and Pollard. Get it done gents, get mean, get angry, get nasty and unleash hell.

2) Run the jet sweep on 1st down in the red zone

-one weakness of the OSU defense is in run support from the secondary. Teams were able to effectively run this play (Wisconsin and Michigan, for example) for a 7+ yard gain. In the red zone, that is just over 2/3rds of the yards required to get into the end zone. Artavis, you’ve been patient all year. This has your name written all over it man, take advantage!

3) Attack their secondary

-But their secondary is amazing?! Haven’t you seen the stats?! The film?! I’m dead serious here. Go watch the tape. OSU’s secondary has been very productive against teams where they can shift the majority of their focus to the #1 receiver (ex. Michigan’s TE Butt, OU’s WR Westbrook, for example). The only team who had success with their 2nd and 3rd receiving options was Oklahoma, and if you take away the turnovers from their QB (yep Mayfield, big surprise right? Him turning the ball over cost them a chance to win that game) it’s a one score game. OSU has not faced a receiving corps like ours at all this year. They can’t double cover any one receiver because do you really want to leave Williams/Cain/Scott/Renfrow/Leggett/McCloud in one on one or in space against zone coverage? If we can get 2nd and mediums (6 yards or less), that’s when I expect to see us really attack down the field. Remember, in OSU’s 4 toughest game on the season, they only have 4 total picks (look at the stats at the bottom of this post, a lot of those picks came against inferior competition).

Defense

1) Push the middle of the offensive line back

-Watkins, Lawrence, and Pagano are going to have to win their battles at the line of scrimmage. OSU’s Oline is not that great, and pressure from the middle of the d line will force their running game outside. What does that mean? The DEs can attack (Ferrell, Bryant, Wilkins, Yeargin, get it done!). If they are not able to get to the QB, GET YOUR DANG HANDS UP! (we all know Deshaun has some passes that get batted down at the line, well Barrett does as well, see 31:28 mark in the Michigan game as one example of this).

2) Keep Barrett in the pocket

-You’ll notice that my Michigan game notes below show several plays where Barrett had time to throw from the pocket and consistently missed down the field throws. If the D-line can get pressure (similar to our Louisville game plan by keeping Jackson in the pocket), our secondary can cover and spy Samuel and shut down the OSU offense completely. If not, see the 32:08 and 32:21 marks of the Michigan link because those 2 plays will likely happen (scrambles for positive yards and first downs, happened A LOT in the 4th quarter and OTs of the Michigan game).

3) Attack from the edges on 3rd down and 5+

-OSU’s offensive line struggled (to put it nicely) in protecting Barrett on 3rd downs when it was a predictable pass. DEs, pin your eyes back and go hit that son of a b! Remember, Barrett has been sacked 24 times this season, with 19 in their 4 toughest games I mentioned in my notes below, and no team has a better D line than we do (Michigan’s might have more depth but not by much).

Special Teams

1) Kickoff return game needs to put us at the 30+ yard line

-One weakness that showed up in a couple games this year (including the Michigan game) was OSU’s kickoff coverage giving up some yards at times (13:40 mark in the game link above). They tend to over pursue towards the middle of the field once the first man downfield gets close to the returner. Artavis, this is another part of the game plan to feature your skill set. Leave no doubt!

2)Do NOT let the ball bounce behind us in the punt return game

-OSU’s punter is fantastic. I’ll say it again, he is fantastic. We need to improve field position as much as possible when we force punts, and the one thing we can consistently impact is not letting the ball bounce near our own 10-yard line. Minimize as much negative yards as possible.

3) “Attack” the OSU punt returner (typically Samuel)

-Why? OSU has muffed some punt returns this year, and while we can’t hit the returner if he calls a fair catch, we can get close enough to force him to take his eyes off the ball and drop it. If we can “attack”, I expect to see them muff at least one return. (see the Nebraska game as an example).

Prediction

1st Quarter

-Wayne Train. Wayne Train. Deshaun on the Zone read. Get 2nd and mediums. Attack the flats with the screen game (all receivers) and FAKE the jet sweep and run the ball (setting up the jet sweep for later in the game) with the Wayne train again. OSU will go 3rd and out at least once and will have to punt from around midfield once.

End of 1st Quarter score = Clemson 10 OSU 3

2nd Quarter

-OSU adjusts to our defense by attacking Boulware in coverage with slant routes and will find some success and move the ball. They will score a TD on a bust from a LB in coverage and will have to settle for 2 FGs on two drives that will stall from the D-line pressure. OSU’s defense will start stacking the box to stop the running game (hehehehehe….). Williams, Leggett, and Cain down field for 3 total TDs this quarter (2 from passing, 1 from the running game).

Halftime 31-16

3rd Quarter

-This is where the game will turn into a defensive struggle for both sides. OSU will change the looks up on defense and attack the edges to stop our screen game, and will get pressure on us by causing some confusion from their D-line. Our defense will hit Barrett a ton this quarter, forcing at least 2 3 and outs, but will give up one TD on a bust in coverage.

End of 3rd Quarter score = 31-23

4th Quarter

-the OCs will adjust to the OSU pressure by having Deshaun pump fake the screen and throw it deep to Williams. This will force the defense to lighten up the box and Wayne will take advantage and get another TD (setup by a jet sweep to Scott (read the 1st quarter note!) after the pass to Williams. Our defense shuts down OSU and they will move the ball down into the red zone but will yet again have to settle for a FG early, and will turn the ball over on downs late in the game. We then run out the clock.

Final Score = Clemson 38-26

Bonus insight = If you read this and it feels similar to our game against VT, it does seem that way. The reason why we will be able to pull away this time? The return of Pagano, especially in the red zone. Barrett will not be effect running up the middle near the goal line with Pagano in the game. No team has been this year when Pagano has been in the game. The Italian Hawaiian bulldozer will be a huge difference maker this game.

OSU Statistical Analysis

11-1 Overall (8-1 Conference)

Wins against Bowling Green (77-10), Tulsa (48-3), @ Oklahoma (45-24), Rutgers (58-0), Indiana (38-17), @ Wisconsin (30-23), Northwestern (24-20), Nebraska (62-3), @ Maryland (62-3), @ MSU (17-16), Michigan (30-27)

Loss against Penn State (21-24)

Offense (per game)

Scoring
42.7 Points
23.5 points in the red zone

1st Downs
25.25
14.42 rushing
9.33 passing
1.5 by penalty

Total Offense
479.5 yards

Plays
78

Rushing
258.3 Yards
5.5 yards Per rush
46.67 Rushes
2.75 TDs

Passing
221.2 Yards
7.1 yards Per attempt
31.33 Attempts
2.17 TDs

Turnovers
14 Fumbles (6 lost)
5 Interceptions thrown

3rd Downs
90/185 (season)
49%

Penalties
6.17/48.8 yards

Sacks given up
25 (season)
2.08 per game

Red Zone
54/62 (season)
87%
40 TDs
14 FGs

Defense (per game)

Scoring
14.2 Points

1st Downs
14.67
6.33 Rushing
7.67 Passing
0.67 by Penalty

Total Defense
282.3 yards

Rushing
117.8 Yards
3.3 yards Per rush
36.08 Rushes
0.42 TDs
Only 5 TDs on the ground given up on the season, this is not a typo

Passing

164.5 Yards
5.4 yards Per attempt
30.33 Attempts
0.83 TDs
Only 10 TDs through the air given up on the season, again, this is not a typo

Turnovers (takeaways)

15 Fumbles (4 recovered)
19 Interceptions
Forcing 1.92 Turnovers per game
7/19 interceptions they have returned for Touchdowns (that’s not a typo)
Hooker (#24) has 6 picks (3 for TDs)
Lattimore has 4 picks (1 for a TD)
Conley has 3 picks
Baker has 2 picks (1 for TD)
4 others have a pick (2 of those for TDs)

3rd downs
56/182 (season)
31%

Sacks
26 (season)
6.67 TFLs/game

Red Zone
26/36 (season)
72%
12 TDs
14 FGs

Special Teams

FGs (season)
17/20
85%
20-29 yards
6/7
30-39 yards
9/10
40-49 yards
2/3
50+
None attempted
Long of 45 yards
1 Blocked

Punts
4.17 punts/game
45 yards/kick
Only 5 TBs, but 23 inside the 20 (almost half the total punts)
1 Blocked

Kickoffs
7.67 kicks/game
60.3 yards/kick
35 TBs
38% of kickoffs are touchbacks
4 kicks have gone out of bounds (resulting in opponent getting ball at the 35 yard line or the option for a 5 yard penalty and rekick)

Returns

Punts
2.17 returns/game
5.1 yards/return
Long of 27 yards

Kicks
1.92 returns/game
24.1 yards/return
Long of 91 yards by Parris Campbell (18 of the 23 returns have been by Campbell, take away the one long return that wasn’t a TD and he’s only averaging 22 yards a kick return)

Misc

Scoring by Quarter

1st
102 – 43

2nd
170-56

3rd
134-28

4th
86-33

OT
20-10

JT Barrett has only thrown over 253 yards twice this season (Nebraska 290 yards, Bowling Green 349 Yards)

In OSU’s 4 toughest games of the season (Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin)
70/126 (55.6%) for 681 yards (170.25 yards/game), 3 TDs, 2 INTs

Barrett has been sacked 24 times this season, 19 of those 24 came in these 4 games

The Defense may have 19 picks on the season, but only FOUR in these 4 games (obvious avg. of 1 per game) and a long of 22 yards (1 TD scored)

In the Red Zone during these 4 games
16 RZ trips, 12 Scores (7 TDs, 5 FGs)
PSU game they only got in the RZ TWICE
2 FGs
MSU game they only got in the RZ TWICE
1 TD, failed to score on the other

They average 42.7 points per game, but what about in these 4 games?

24.5 points with a high of 30 in the WIS and UM games
They’ve only scored over 23 points when the games have gone to at least 1 OT
Only 9 total sacks with 4 of those coming in the Wisconsin game in these 4 games.
Total Offense average per game on the season? 479.5 yards Total Offense average per game in these 4 games? 366 yards

References
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/osu/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2016-17/stats/season_stats.pdf

Specific Game Notes

Oklahoma Game

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acW7omZ9qVk

RG #54 missed a couple blocks in the 1st quarter and had a false start penalty
CB #8 shut down OU receivers when one on one (very physical, borderline PI flags could have been thrown)
Curtis Samuel #4 had the safety beat and Barrett (#16 the QB) missed the throw
Barrett did not throw the ball well from the pocket
Short field is when Meyer went for it on 4th and short (converted on a zone read (barrett handed ball off to Samuel) for a 36 yard TD)
Pre snap motion confused the defense, namely the safety and once samuel hit the edge it was over
Defensive line got pressure on OU when #74 for OU went out with an injury (LG), before he went out OSU got NO push and OU went right down the field
#24 in the secondary (lined up at safety) was not good in coverage against OUs 4th receiver
OU had some success running to the right side of the field (behind the RG and RT)
#5 Mcmillian (LB) is an excellent tackler
OSU had trouble covering the OU tight end (Mayfield could not set his feet consistently to take advantage)
OSU tipped a pass from a free rusher from OU and returned it for a TD (very quickly it was 14-0, Samuels TD on 4th down and the Pick 6 were the only great plays that OU didn’t match in the 1st quarter, OU was in the red zone on both opening drives but couldn’t convert with the missed FG and the pick 6 on a tip)
OSU gave up a 97 yard TD on a kick return right after going up 14-0
Mike Weber (#25 RB) had some big carries on the right side of the field (defense took some very bad angles)
Barret picked up some first downs on 3rd down scrambles
Reverse was successful against OSU in the 2nd quarter for a big gain
CB #2 Lattimore gave up a big play in one on one coverage against OU’s #3 receiver to setup OU at the 3 yard line
OSU sent a corner blitz and sacked Mayfield 13 yards behind the original LOS
OU’s Tight end #81 dropped a TD pass (TE was perfect call between the LB and safety)
OU’s TE went out with an injury after this play
6’5” 250lbs but not as quick as Leggett
OU moved the ball very well between the 20s but stalled in the red zone against them

Wisconsin Game

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fUHrWDbSSE

Wisconsin D line got pressure in the 1st quarter with just the Defensive line
Play action to the TE was a successful play call in the 1st quarter
Wisconsin had success running behind the tackles (edge rushes) and WR screens, but not consistently
3rd and long allowed OSU to attack the QB and force a big sack
Slant against 4-3 defense was successful for OSU
WIS fielded punt inside own 5 (terrible decision)
Clement had 60+ yard run to the left side behind the left tackle
OSU stripped him on the next play but ball stayed with WIS
WIS was successful attacking the secondary with the TE
OSU attacked edges against WIS and had some success with Samuel on the zone read
Barrett had the ball stripped from him but recovered on a straight ahead run
Motion used a lot to try and deceive WIS but rarely was given on a jet sweep
OSU had success stopping the WIS runs up into their DTs
OSU got called for sideline interference (15 yard penalty)
This is key because it was a road game for them
WIS made sure to hit Barrett on the option game consistently (even if he pitched, key note here)
Have to get Barrett on the ground in the backfield, the opportunities were there for WIS and more times than not when Barrett escaped he hit a big completion
Barrett rarely used pump fakes to help his receivers get separation
WIS used jet sweeps and even screens to the TE and were consistently picking up yards
WIS attacked the QB and RBs, left their secondary in 1 on 1s because Barrett rarely hit a pass unless the secondary had a brain fart
OSU forced a few FGs in the red zone, these were the key in keeping them in the game
OSU pinned their ears back on a lot of 3rd and longs, got a few sacks on 3rd and longs
OSU special teams were not efficient (dropped punt returns, but recovered, and gave up some yards on kick returns)
Barrett threw a pick in the end zone (had time to read the defense and still made a bad decision)
Short fields in the 2nd half allowed OSU to get back into the game as well
WIS used double Outside linebacker blitzes on 2nd down to force quick/bad throws by Barrett
OSU short yardage situations were mostly QB run and zone read play calls
OSU got a couple picks by bad throws by WIS QB (resulted in short fields, 2nd half that was the difference, short fields for OSU)
OSU’s go ahead TD early 4th was a busted play and he broke a couple tackles (but O-line got away with a hold that was pointed out by Herbie)
OSU’s secondary was not good against taller receivers on 3rd downs down the field (about 15-20 yards down field)
Completed one deep throw by Barrett late 4th quarter (only one all game)

Nebraska Game

https://youtu.be/N14H0chyd6g

Nebraska was completely outmatched even before Armstrong went out with the injury
OSU did muff a punt that was recovered by Nebraska (but no points for Nebraska)
Emerging trend with OSU special teams is giving up the occasional Special teams TD and muffing punts
Samuel beat the one safety in a foot race on a 75 yard TD

Michigan Game

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xR2zK4VPxFE

Wildcat was effective for 5ish yard plays against the OSU defense
When OSU’s defensive set was a basic 4-3 look (2 safeties, 2 corners, 3 LBs, 4 Down linemen), Michigan was in 2TE sets
Very effective for Michigan throwing to the TE in the flat to the offense’s left/defense’s right when the OLB blitzed
OSU defense ran a lot of base 4-3 sets (common trend all year) which while is very basic in scheme it allows them to attack specific keys from the offense.
Barrett on 3rd down passing was not effective when the D line got pressure (happy feet)
OSU will blitz on predictably long down and distances
Barret had a perfect opportunity to hit a slant route to an OPEN receiver and missed it (another missed throw from a clean pocket
8:57 mark of the game link above to see this exact play
Barret made a good throw into the blitz on the very next play (free blitzer)
The less time he has to think the better he tends to throw
The left side of the OSU offensive line had trouble blocking the right side of the Michigan D line
Barrett has a tendency to force the ball to Samuel, especially when the protection breaks down
I could see Coach V notice this and have Jadar pay attention to this when he is in zone coverage
18:11 mark, resulted in a pick for Michigan, this will be a common theme to attack
22:05 mark, had a clean pocket (but it was collapsing) and Barrett had a receiver open down the field can yet again could not hit the throw
OSU runs the zone read a LOT
OSU will blitz on 1st down if the other team has the ball near their own goal line (12:41 mark game link above).
OSU’s secondary made some plays against the Michigan receivers because Michigan forced the ball to their TE Butt. No other receiver on Michigan’s offense is worth anything (yep I said it).
Michigan really should have won this game, but give credit to OSU for forcing turnovers (1 at their own goal line, 1 pick 6, and 1 almost pick 6)
Michigan jumped the snap count in the 3rd quarter and got consistent pressure
OSU failed on a fake punt
One thing that has to be mentioned is we talk about our team being battled tested, OSU is as well.

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A couple additional comments from a Buckeye perspective, but first, what great write-up. This clearly took a lot of time and effort, and was quite well done.

Wisconsin had two weeks to prepare for that matchup and had not shown the jet sweep on film up to that point. That completely caught us off guard in the first half but was totally shut down in the second half. The UM game was different because they made it a point to get the ball out of the QBs hands in less than 3 seconds, if not less than 2. Our D-line had no chance to really get up the field and affect the QB, other than that INT/pick-6. I just say that to say UMs gameplan, even with the jet sweeps was much different than Clemson's will be, as DW works through his progressions, which UM didn't allow their QB to do.

Agreed that one of the biggest battles will be your NFL wide receivers vs. our NFL DBs. The one thing they haven't done all year is allow big plays. Maybe some YAC, but the catch is underneath and then the YAC happens. I don't see a lot of downfield completions (but you only need a couple, right?) but I can definitely see some underneath to Renfrow, Leggett, Ray Ray with some YAC that keeps the chains moving. Doing that will open up the downfield space - who will win that battle?

Not much I can add on your Defensive keys. The trenches will determine the outcome here. If we can run, we've got a chance. If I'm not mistaken y'all haven't been too good against the run. So, if we can establish that early, and have balance between JT, Weber, and Samuel running the ball I think we'll be able to pass more effectively. However, if you shut down the run, it will be doubly-hard to complete the throws we need to to win the game.

ST - because it's in a dome and given how explosive Artavis is as a returner I wouldn't be surprised is Urban askes Durbin to try for a TB every time. He has the leg, but playing up north in the late fall doesn't always give you the best conditions to make that happen.

Yes our punter from down under is the real deal. If there is one way we can offset your offensive weapons it's with a long field time and time again. UM kept us backed up in the first half and really caused our offense trouble with a long field. It will be imperative to flip the field against y'all, and I would imagine you would admit you need the game of his life out of your mediocre punter. This is an area the Buckeyes *can* win, but do they execute?

I don't necessarily see the game going the way you do, but that's not really a surprise, is it?

If anything our defense is sluggish out of the game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 14-3 or even 17-7 type score after 1. We typically get better after the 1st Q and typically make really good halftime adjustments. While our run game may not be amazing in the first half it's designed to wear down defenses so that by the 3rd and 4th quarters we are knocking off 8-10 yards a pop, whereas in the first half they might only be 3-4 yards.

After 1: C-10 O:7 After 2: C-17 O-14 After 3: C-20 O-24 After 4: C-27 O-31

Yeah, I'll probably have it all wrong and both teams will be in the 40s. Thanks for the write up, again. This is exactly the kind of thing I was hoping to find when I came over here.

Ohio State Scouting

Good job, thanks***

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Bookmarked... Will read when bored...

good enough for me haha, just before the game though!***

Thanks 3289. I read this the first day it came out. Without

Re: Thanks 3289. I read this the first day it came out. Without

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