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Orange Blooded [4058]
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just fer shiggles, let's talk about the decision to punt
Sep 18, 2015, 12:17 PM
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rather than go for the first down on 4th and less than 1, with +/- 1:20 remaining..
preface: i am so proud of the program dabo has built that there are no misdemeanors, and only a few felonies, that would alter my mancrush on coach..
but i do believe that every elite football team must be able to line up on fourth and goal from inside the 1 (or 4th and 1 from the 40, with 1:20 left) and win the game..and i was quite concerned that punting would lead to an ot-forcing fg (their kicker redeeming himself from 50+ woulda been a great story for others)..i'd have tried to maintain possession and go for the first..or at least line up in fast-pace and try to draw them offside.
but our defense closed it out and i reckon i wuz wrong..but, this tough w is exactly what we needed to say "playtime is over" and begin preparation for a tough stretch of football.
go tiguhs!
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All-In [30593]
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is this a joke?
Sep 18, 2015, 12:19 PM
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seems like a joke....
up 3, you're on your own 30, around 1:00 left.... and your defense is playing lights out
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Orange Blooded [3288]
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Re: is this a joke?
Sep 18, 2015, 12:20 PM
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yep punt the ball and let the defense play. their kicker already missed one. odds are he wasn't going to miss another one. thank goodness Dodd got that sack on the next to last play to take them out of field goal range.
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Orange Blooded [4058]
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"or at least line up fast and try to draw them offside" and
Sep 18, 2015, 12:23 PM
[ in reply to is this a joke? ] |
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"just fer shiggles"..noticed you missed parts of the point
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All-In [30593]
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i don't think I missed them...
Sep 18, 2015, 12:24 PM
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why do you think I missed them?
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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All-In [30593]
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you obviously missed the part of his post about
Sep 18, 2015, 12:27 PM
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"shiggles"
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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ignoring =\= missed. Hth***
Sep 18, 2015, 12:29 PM
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Orange Blooded [3730]
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Yes...this post was a joke...he forgot the punch line***
Sep 18, 2015, 12:56 PM
[ in reply to is this a joke? ] |
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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No, with the way our defense played there's no way
Sep 18, 2015, 12:20 PM
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Yes you'd like to think WG picks up the first down and game over. But what happens with a bad snap, or one, just one of their interior linemen gets push against our OL? You immediately give their kicker another chance. I'd much rather put it in the hands of our defense who had played their arses off all night.
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All-TigerNet [13888]
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^^^This^^^^
Sep 18, 2015, 12:22 PM
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OP plays too much Xbox
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All-In [30593]
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not only that... but if you go and don't get it
Sep 18, 2015, 12:22 PM
[ in reply to No, with the way our defense played there's no way ] |
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you've given them a legit shot to win the game, not just tie
whereas punting... chances are the worst case is a tie with a FG
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Letterman [298]
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Re: No, with the way our defense played there's no way
Sep 18, 2015, 1:16 PM
[ in reply to No, with the way our defense played there's no way ] |
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Not only do you give their kicker a chance, you give them the ball already in FG range w/ 1:00 left...you give them a chance to outright win the game with a TD...have to punt there.
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All-In [26336]
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I'm sure Dabo thought about it for a split second. Then he
Sep 18, 2015, 12:30 PM
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remembered why he gets paid millions of dollars to make correct decisions.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Honestly, I couldn't even believe David Pollack
Sep 18, 2015, 12:32 PM
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brought it up. Palmer's reaction was all "bruh did you catch a case of the stoopid?"
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All-In [30593]
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DP is probably my favorite announcer at ESPN...
Sep 18, 2015, 12:33 PM
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I think he and Herbie are on a different level when it comes to understanding the game and articulating it...
but i agree on your point
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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I'm into statistics and think coaches often make too many
Sep 18, 2015, 12:47 PM
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conservative decisions in games that actually lower their chances to win, however this wasn't one of those instances IMO.
First off, just look at the risk/reward from each scenario.
Go for it and make it - game over, best possible result.
Go for it and get stopped - Louisville starts in FG range with about 1:30 on the clock. They will be playing not for a FG to tie, but for the win in regulation, and will only settle for the FG if they have to. A FG attempt by Louisville is about the best outcome we could hope for here, and there's a good chance it's a fairly short attempt.
Punt - Just figure you get off a decent punt towards the sideline to prevent a big return and it goes for ~35-40 yards (yeah we only got 33 last night). That puts UL on their own ~30 or so needing to go nearly 40 yards just to get into FG range. They will most likely be playing for a FG and OT, not for a TD. You take most of the risk of losing in regulation out of equation. The defense has been very good all night so you figure there's a pretty darn good chance you can stop them from even getting into FG range. Barring some complete disaster like blocked punt or a snap over the punters head, the most likely outcome here is probably a win followed by OT with maybe a very small chance of something going catastrophically bad and losing in regulation.
Just combining the odds of punting and stopping them (over 50% i would think) + winning a crap shoot in OT (maybe 40%, ill give them the nod for momentum and home crows) i would seriously put our odds of winning the game as high as 75% if we punt.
How confident are you in picking up that 4th and 1 with our mediocre OL? Better be pretty confident. Also, you would have to survive the media and fan backlash for doing something unorthodox like that and then losing... it would be pretty brutal.
Heck, I remember Bill Belichick getting hammered for doing something very similar against Peyton Manning and then losing the game, and I'm pretty sure some stat guys came out and said he really did make the correct decision (b/c Peyton was so good in 2-min drill and game winning drives), but because it was so against the grain of what is commonly accepted to be the "right play" or the "safe play" he got crucified for it.
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110%er [7169]
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Re: just fer shiggles, let's talk about the decision to punt
Sep 18, 2015, 12:54 PM
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No. It's because of trusting the defense to keep them out of scoring range that you punt in that scenario last night. All they needed was fieldgoal and to spot them the ball on their own 40 would have been beyond foolish. Lot's of things can happen if you go for it. Ball could be fumbled from a bad snap.Bad exchange to rb or just plain stopped at the line of scrimmage. So again NO you don't go for it in that case.
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All-TigerNet [10904]
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If Dabo had gone for it, and not made it, everyone on here,
Sep 18, 2015, 1:33 PM
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and everywhere else, would have been saying what a fool he was. You don't make that, you are giving them the ball in field goal range.
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CU Guru [1369]
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Had to punt. I was just skeered to death of a return for TD!***
Sep 18, 2015, 1:39 PM
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