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YOUR BALANCE
A long disconcerting observation on the BCS standings...
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A long disconcerting observation on the BCS standings...


Oct 26, 2012, 2:53 PM

And this is a long read, and yes a lot can happen before then, BUT ... someone in the BCS Top 10 is gonna get screwed. Note that all this is predicated on Clemson and FSU finishing 11-1 or it really doesn't matter anyway.

If that happens, someone is going to get shafted. And it won't be because of a weak ACC. It'll be because of a weak Big 10.

Here's the setup: Right now, we're 18 in the BCS. There are 4 at large spots, plus the 2 BCS title spots.

1. Bama
2. Florida
3. K State
4. Oregon
5. BB Heads
6. LSU
7. Oregon St.
8. Oklahoma
9. SoCal
10. JawJaw
11. Miss St.
12. Fla. St.
13. Capons
14. Tex Tech
15. Rutgers
16. L'ville
17. Stanford
18. Clemson
19. W. Virginia
20. Tex A&M

Looks sort of lean right now, but just gazing down the road: We know that no more than 2 teams can be taken from any given conference, unless they are non-champion teams that qualified for the title game. That means that of the 7 SEC teams in the BCS Top 20, 5 will be disappointed. Of course, I honestly don't anticipate UCS or Miss St. to be above us at the finale anyway, but you'll need to toss four of the SEC teams out of the mix. That gets us to No. 14 without lifting a finger.

Now check the 4 teams in the Pac 12. Same deal. Two of them go home empty handed by the rules. Clemson is now No. 12 without playing another game.

Same is true of the Big 12. Four teams, two spots. Hello No. 10 Clemson.

Rutgers plays Louisville in a loser leaves town match on the 29th. The loser falls from contention. No. 9 Clemson.

So, let's look at the standings, an play chalk with the head-to-head matchups After the dust settles, and assuming we aren't the ACC Atlantic Division champs (which I still haven't given up on) Here's the BCS

1. Bama (who beats Miss St. and Tex A&M to bounce them from consideration ... also beats LSU)

2. Florida who beats JawJaw and knocks them from contention ... also if they beat FSU, the Noles drop below us.

3. K State (knocks TTech out of the mix)

4. Oregon (eliminates USC, Stanford and Ore. State ... and likely moves in the No. 2 spot)

5. BB Heads (double bumps So Cal and dumps Oklahoma)

6. LSU (loses to Bama, but eliminates Miss St.)

7. Ore. St. (falls to Oregon but eliminates Stanford)

8. Oklahoma (loses to the BB Heads and K State, but eliminates WVa.

9. So Cal (Gone, having lost to Stanford, BB Heads and Oregon)

10. JawJaw (Gone after losing to LSU, due to SEC logjam)

11. Miss. St. (Gone after losing a bunch of folks, per the SEC logjam)

12. FSU (In as presumptive ACC title older in this scenario. Otherwise out with loss to whoever beat them to give us the title shot, and to Florida)

13. Capons (out with loss to Clemson ... Bwwwwahahaaaa!)

14. Texas Tech (out with loss to K State, per Big 12 logjam)

15-16. Rutgers-Louisville winner is in, loser is out

17. Stanford (out per the Pac 12 logjam)

18. Clemson (just wait and see, but we bounce No. 13 UCS)

19. W. Va (out per loss to Oklahoma and the Big 12 logjam)

20. Texas A&M (out per the SEC logjam)

------

So, with all that, here's where we should stand in early December. In this worst-case scenario:

1. Alabama (assuming SEC title win, which knocks Florida out of the title match)
2. Oregon (title Game)
3. K State (Fiesta)
4. Florida (Sugar)
5. BB Heads (at-large)
6. Ore. State (Rose)
7. Oklahoma (at-large)
8. FSU (Orange)
9. Rutgers/Louisville (at-large)
10. Clemson (at-large)

Let's see Top 10 BCS, five games ... hey! That's 10 teams! We're golden!

Nope. The Bowl games would be:

BCS Title Game: Bama vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl Ore St. vs. whoever wins the Big 10 mess
Sugar: Florida vs. at-large
Orange: FSU vs. at-large
Fiesta: K State vs. at-large

NOTE: Notre Dame and the Big East champ would be automatic qualifiers under this scenario. That means Clemson and Oklahoma are left waiting to see who gets that final at-large spot.

Anyone care to bet we're taken ahead of Oklahoma?

What we REALLY need (aside from FSU falling again) is for Oklahoma and So Cal to take down the BB Heads. It removes N. Dame from conversation and So Cal is already locked out. Oklahoma and Clemson both get in and everyone who isn't a BB-headed leprechaun kisser is happy.

At least I think that's how it works.

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Re: we only need to win out


Oct 26, 2012, 2:57 PM

thats all. simple right?

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Thanks for the hard work!


Oct 26, 2012, 3:01 PM

Win out and we have a very good shot!

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won't oklahoma be a 2 loss team? KState and ND?


Oct 26, 2012, 3:12 PM

I would imagine us winning out would be ahead of them, but I'm not positive about that. Also, if FSU beats Florida, and we beat USuC that should help our stock significantly. I guess I'm saying that your view is a conservative scenario if we win out, but the fact of the matter is, it could work out in a much more favorable way.

Just my opinion though. Thanks for the post.

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Excellent point: I wouldn't presume to figure the numbers..


Oct 26, 2012, 3:33 PM

...just head up wins and losses.

Beating a couple of +.500 teams (Duke, NC State, UCS) will no doubt help, and if FSU continues to win (especially if they beat Florida) it would help as well.

But dang, if I could do that kind of math I wouldn't be handling snakes for a living.

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Re: won't oklahoma be a 2 loss team? KState and ND?


Oct 26, 2012, 3:50 PM [ in reply to won't oklahoma be a 2 loss team? KState and ND? ]

Outside of the Top 6 BCS ranked schools, you are not guranteed a spot in the BCS, unless you are an automatic qualifier. (ala. last year VT vs. Michigan game..)

A two win Okie team is still in consideration. So is a 2 loss Notre Dame Team. The way this year is playing out, there are no little conferences grabbing a bid, or even making any noise. So you basically are going to see the top 2 from the highest ranked conferences get 2 bids. Then Notre Dame is actually showing up this year to grab one. Which is hurting us this year.

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Fixed it. I shouldn't try this after a night game.***


Oct 26, 2012, 4:05 PM



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Irony


Oct 26, 2012, 3:15 PM

Great breakdown! Of course, the irony here is that this year we are disappointed that the not-so-highly-ranked winner of a bad conference (Big10) gets an automatic BCS bid ahead of more deserving teams - sound familiar? Guess if the rule benefits you one year, it's only fair it hurts us the next year

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You're assuming we get picked ahead of a 10 - 2 ND.


Oct 26, 2012, 3:23 PM

The mighty has fallen, but not that far I'm afraid. You're also counting on Stanford to beat Southern Cal. I know the right scenerio is out there. It will involve some upsets that I would never guess right now, like ND losing to Pittsburgh.

Go Tigers, keep hope alive!

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The Dude abides


Re: You're assuming we get picked ahead of a 10 - 2 ND.


Oct 26, 2012, 3:25 PM

Stanford already beat USC

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OK, that helps :)***


Oct 26, 2012, 3:27 PM



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The Dude abides


What Harley would like......


Oct 26, 2012, 3:25 PM

I am old and often confused. But I still know what I like. Here would be my personal preferences:

1. Clemson wins the league and plays in the Orange Bowl. It's on NYD. It is in South Florida. I like bowls in Florida.

2. Some other BCS bowl. Just because of the initials BCS.

3. Clemson somehow trades down to the Champs Bowl, or as they now call it, the Russel Athletic Bowl. The game is in Florida, it's on a Friday. I know where I like to go for bowls. It has history.

4. Clemson somehow trades down to the Sun Bowl. It's historic, it's in El Paso for goodness sakes and we have never been invited. I'd to make the trip to El Paso. Bet my bottom dollar the fans and players would like it.

5. The Belk Bowl in Charlotte is 3 miles from my house. I'd go.

Lord, please keep us out of the sucky Chic-Fil-a Peach Bowl. It's in Atlanta in the middle of winter and they play the darn thing indoors. I shall never again attend a football game aside from a national title game in the Ga Dome if at all possible.

And I hate the idea of Washington, Nashville, Shreveport. No offense, but no thanks.


Message was edited by: Harley®


Message was edited by: Harley®


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What about a Chik fil a date with UGA?***


Oct 26, 2012, 3:37 PM



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Re: What about a Chik fil a date with UGA?***


Oct 26, 2012, 4:05 PM

ugh...no thanks they are on the schedule in 2013 and 2014

too much bulldog for me

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That game would sell out in about two (2) minutes....


Oct 26, 2012, 4:07 PM [ in reply to What about a Chik fil a date with UGA?*** ]

and people though the Clemson/Tennessee Peach-Fil-A Bowl was a hard ticket to come by. Sheesh !!!!

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Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


Re: What Harley would like......


Oct 26, 2012, 3:55 PM [ in reply to What Harley would like...... ]

South Beach is warm and pretty. Disney World is Fun. But El Passo is a hole... If we go, bring a bullet proof vest. And keep your kids close. Otherwise you will end up dead and your kids will be sold on the black market!

Stay away from El Passo...

GO Tigers.
LNT

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Looks like we would want the Orange and Sugar


Oct 26, 2012, 3:35 PM

to take Big East champ and Notre Dame, thus leaving the Fiesta to choose between Clemson and Oklahoma in THAT SCENARIO.

That would be a heck of a choice for them. Pull a team from the east coast to a bowl on the west coast that MAY not travel as well as normal, and likely not. Or pit 2 teams in a rematch from the same conference.

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Re: Looks like we would want the Orange and Sugar


Oct 26, 2012, 4:00 PM

I think the way it works is that the Feista is stuck this year with the Big East team. From what I can tell the Rose will get its Big 10/Pac 12 Match up and then the Fiesta has to take the AQ first before it can pick.. I think.

But regardless it does not matter. We have to be picked over Okie State or Notre Dame for the Sugar, if we get to go..

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Are you sure? The Fiesta will take the Big XII AQ


Oct 26, 2012, 4:13 PM

but they traditionally take the 2nd pick as an at-large, while traditionally Orange takes ACC-Big East.

It is looking like the national title will be SEC vs. Pac 12/Big XII, so Sugar and Fiesta/Rose will get those first at-large picks to take whoever they want, but usually keep it in the family. Then all the AQ's go.

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After much revlery last night, I'm sure of little....


Oct 26, 2012, 4:29 PM

But i do know that the BNig East is now an automatic AQ, but not linked to the Orange Bowl any more.

Rose is locked in to Big 10-PAC so no at large opportunity there.

And I believe the others rotate their choices, though I may have mixed up the order. Alas the point remains there's one more team than spots, thanks to the Big 10 ... which could have bumped the BB Heads if they had any sort of offense in the conference.

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Gotcha, so Fiesta probably does get stuck


Oct 26, 2012, 4:33 PM

Which means if I were them and Oregon doesn't play for the title, I take USC if they are available. Or someone that will travel and try to make up the difference in lost seats from the Big East team

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Re: A long disconcerting observation on the BCS standings...


Oct 26, 2012, 3:46 PM

You summerized what I have been pondering for the past hour. Sorry boss..

I dont see us getting to a BCS bowl.

1. We have to hope that Notre Dame gives up 3 games. I don see that happening.
2. We also need to see USC crash and burn. They play Notre Dame so someone is going to survive and advance...
3. If Okie falls, then they open the door to WVU, and TTech. That is not good either. Considering bowls are about selling tickets, and the drive is shorter to the Sugar and Fieta from the Big 12 than it is for the ACC.
4. But the extra dig for us this year is that the Orange picks last. I think we will be amoung the schools considered, but we will go lower in the pecking order if we do. And with the Orange Bowl taking FSU, early, they dont pick us last....

What we did learn is that #10 - #25 this year in the BCS dosent mean anything..

But anything can happen.
Go Tigers
LNT

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Could be. I think back to VTech in the Gator Bowl


Oct 26, 2012, 4:06 PM

...that was a team that should have been in the BCS, but got shafted. And they took it out on us.

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Re: A long disconcerting observation on the BCS standings...


Oct 26, 2012, 4:03 PM

It would suck if Oregon SoCal split both the regular meeting and the Pac 12 title game. They would have to include one of them at the at-large convo

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Re: A long disconcerting observation on the BCS standings...


Oct 26, 2012, 4:08 PM

Also we REALLY need Bama and Oregon to run the table. A 1 loss Bama coupled with a 1 loss Oregon and 1 loss Florida would destroy any chance we have. 1 loss Oregon puts Southern Cal in the Rose assuming they beat them in the Pac 12 title game. Oregon would prob go to Fiesta. ND is gonna get in. We need them to crash and burn ASAP.

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To simplify...


Oct 26, 2012, 7:13 PM

To simplify:
10 spots:
SEC: 2 almost guaranteed (Bama + 1 other, likely Fla, LSU, UGA or Sakerlina)
Big 12: 2 almost guaranteed (KSU and Oklahoma seem most likely)
Big East: 1 almost guaranteed
Big 10: 1 almost guaranteed (with PSU and OSU bowl ban)
That leaves 4 spots for:
ACC champ
Pac12 champ
Notre Dame (who gets in even with 2 losses)
and 1 more at large, either Clemson/FSU or someone from Pac12

Our best chance at an at large is if USC loses 2 more and the best options for an at large from the Pac 12 are a 3-loss USC, 1 or 2 loss Oregon State and 2 or 3 loss Stanford, because I think we get chosen over all of those if we end up 11-1

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Go Duke! Go Maryland! Go VT!


Oct 26, 2012, 7:16 PM

That is all I need to think about instead of this chart. Whichever team can rise up and beat FSU...down to those 3. We aren't losing in the ACC again.

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Re: A long disconcerting observation on the BCS standings...


Oct 26, 2012, 7:40 PM

Interesting take Rev. The real question is that if a at-large is between Clemson and Big 12/SEC/or PAC 12 one lost team...would Clemson have enough to jump one of those teams. Those conferences are playing the toughest part of their schedule and how much would they drop in the polls after playing a quality opponent?

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