»
Topic: Football Update: Latest Vegas Odds for Clemson-Georgia
Replies: 28   Last Post: Aug 27, 2013 2:20 PM by: crunkstar
This topic has been archived - replies are not allowed.


[ Archives - Tiger Boards Archive ]
Start New Topic
Replies: 28  

Football Update: Latest Vegas Odds for Clemson-Georgia


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 3:22 PM
 

 
Latest Vegas Odds for Clemson-Georgia

Read Update »



Interesting


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 3:45 PM
 

Considering that there's been no significant injuries to Clemson (i.e. Taj Boyd breaking a leg), that's a fairly large swing in the line. From Clemson -2 to Clemson +1.5... a 3 1/2 point swing.

That can only mean one thing: People are putting a lot of money on UGA.

I'm wondering if that trend will continue, pushing the line to Clemson +2 or +3? Or, if it'll spur a bunch of money to be moved onto Clemson? Any thoughts?

Personally, I like it. I was 'all in' with the Tigers giving a few points. Now that I'm getting some, it's even better.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

It worries me because usually the "sharps"


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 3:53 PM
 

are usually the ones who move the lines, not the public...but for that much of a movement I think both must be on UGA


Actually....


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 3:57 PM
 

UGA went all the way to -2.5....AND...the line moved back to E before now settling around UGA -1.5

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: Actually....


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 4:40 PM
 

That is some serious movement. This game is really evil in a lot of ways (from a vegas/gambling perspective). It's a huge marquee matchup with massive fan bases and has the attention of the entire country. It's the biggest game of the week by far. And, because it's the first game of the season, there's a ton of pent up demand for betting (unless you get into golf and baseball money lines).

So, it's a major betting event. I would love to know how much total money has been placed on this game... both the line and the O/U. I know Vegas has to be dancing a little jig right about now.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Who cares what they have to say***


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 7:25 PM
 



military_donation.jpg

Re: It worries me because usually the "sharps"


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 9:11 PM
 

Actually the "Sharps" move it to even the bets, and they make theirs on the "commission". This is a good thing for Clemson. The game will be a close game, and I think we win it, but I'm very prejudiced. I do know the odds swing as the bets come in, because Vegas wins based on the commission gap, if not on the actual game.

2018 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg

Re: Interesting

[1]
Posted: Aug 25, 2013 4:02 PM
 

Most of America gets their news from ESPiN. The frugal gamblers know the early polls mean nothing but the average joe takes them to heart.

I'd agree that most of the money is on uga and the bookies are trying to balance their sheets.

As far as the over under I'd have set it at 78. I think Clemson will score about 50 or so and uga is a sure bet to get to 30. I expect each team to have two easy scores from missed assignments. Clemson will beat uga for three more scores on talented WRs and Qb's arm. Home field is worth another and a few stops on defense. That's my opinion.

I'd take the over on Vegas' guess and I'd take Clemson and whatever they'd give.

2018 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: Interesting


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 4:11 PM
 

I'd love to see us score that many. Just not seeing it in an opener unless we had AE and Nuke still available.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: Interesting


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 8:16 PM
 

I agree 74tiger--- we usually stink it up good in openers. We should have scheduled Arky St instead!!


Good. Maybe the team will see it as an insult

[2]
Posted: Aug 25, 2013 4:09 PM
 

and take it out on the pups. Go Tigers, beat the mess outta georgia.


Someone explain something to me


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 5:01 PM
 

I rarely bet on sports so this isnt my area. So given that the line has moved to favor UGA, then we are saying that most fans are betting UGA. Right?

So my question is, if you are a booky or bookie(not sure how to spell that), what would you most like to see given the line? A Clemson or UGA win? Or does it not matter and thats why we move the line....?

Can anyone educate me on this. Thanks guys.


Bookies dont care who wins as long as even money is


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 8:39 PM
 

Placed on both sides. This allows them to pay the winners with the losers money. So if you have bettor a placing 100 on team 1 and bettor b placing 100 on team 2....the bookie will be able to pay the winner 90(100-10 fee...or whatever fee the bookie charges) with the losers 100.


It's all about the grease


Posted: Aug 26, 2013 9:37 AM
 

If you bet and win, you get what you bet. If you bet and lose, you owe what you bet, plus 10%.

Now, consider there are 1 million bets of $1 each. $500K on one side and $500K on the other. The winners get $500K. The losers pay $550K (that 10% added on). The bookie ends up clearing $50K... or 5% of the total action.

That's an ideal situation and never really happens. But, you get the idea. Bookies want that 50/50 split on all action. When it tips in one direction they move the line a bit to incite action in the other direction.

In the case with the Clemson-UGA line, it appears that a lot of money went on UGA when they were actually getting points. So, the line move the other way... 3 1/2 points to where Clemson is getting points. In theory, this will cause more money to go towards Clemson. However, the bookie now has a problem. He's got a spread on his action. Someone could have bet UGA +2 and also Clemson +1.5. And if the game ends up with Clemson losing by 1 point or winning by 1 point, they win both bets. Most bookies in that situation end up pushing a portion of their bets off on another bookie to lessen their risk.

No doubt, Vegas is run by insurance actuaries. ;)

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: Football Update: Latest Vegas Odds for Clemson-Georgia


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 5:32 PM
 

The bookie or odds makers want even money for Clemson and UGA so they don't lose either way. they take the juice or losers extra percentage and move on

If the line is moving to UGA then a ton of bets are coming in on UGA so they are making UGA the favorite hoping more Clemson fans come in on the action and take Clemson.

The line will move up to kickoff based on heavy money on either team

military_donation.jpg

ok, then what is the juice exactly


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 5:35 PM
 

i dont quite get that. i understand the logic behind the rest.


Re: bookies want to minimize risk


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 5:59 PM
 

Juice or Vig is the amount charged by a bookie for his services. Sometimes its also known to represent the interest on a loan from a loan shark.


To minimize risk, bookies do not have an interest on one side or the other winning. Instead they want to get equal betting on both outcomes of the event. By doing this the bookie is guarenteed to collect a small amount on the vig/juice. The bookie will continue to adjust the lines up to the time of the event to attract equal action on the game.


ty to u as well for the explanantion my friend***


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 6:01 PM
 




"Bookie" is normally at risk as much (or more) as a gambler.


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 8:08 PM
 

Sports books are not tied in to "bookies" nor loan sharks.

Good grief some of you need to get out more.

badge-donor-10yr.jpg

There's no such thing as a stupid question, just stupid people who ask questions.


Re: Football Update: Latest Vegas Odds for Clemson-Georgia


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 5:44 PM
 

The juice is the money owed over your bet if you lose.

If I bet 50.00 I pay 55 if I lose if I bet 100 I pay 110 if I lose that is the juice to the bookie. while the win only gets you the number you bet 50 or 100

That may not seem like much but if you take the entire book of bets and add it up, it keeps a bookies life going forward

Vegas is run off the sports books losses and juice

a 1000 bet may be a ton for normal fans but in vegas I have seen $10K football bets thrown down as if they are 5 bucks. Think about the juice on that loss.

military_donation.jpg

ok, thank you for explaining to me


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 5:52 PM
 

i never realized you lost more than the actual bet. shows how often i bet. lol so i guess based on what are saying, the juice goes up with the amount owed i suppose. a percentage maybe?

Either way, thanks for helping me understand.


$1k is not a normal bet...


Posted: Aug 25, 2013 8:06 PM
 

...no such thing as a normal bet.

badge-donor-10yr.jpg

There's no such thing as a stupid question, just stupid people who ask questions.


If your bookie is charging you an additional 10% on a loss


Posted: Aug 26, 2013 9:13 AM
 

You need to find a new one. Then again it's obvious you have no clue what you're talking about.

If I bet $100 bucks on Clemson to win over UGA (spread, not money line) then if I lose the bookie keeps it all, unless you're gambling on credit which is becoming more and more rare these days...

If I win the same same bet, I get my $100 back plus $90 for winning if the vig is 10% (you never gain an amount equal to what you put up, b/c the bookie has to have a built-in mechanism to make money regardless of who wins or loses)

That's why bookies and gambling houses want the money to be close to equal on both sides, like someone said before, that way they are guaranteed to make their 10% (or whatever they charge) regardless of the outcome of the game so they adjust the spread to tempt more action to fall where it's needed.

Money line bets are totally different, but usually safer, because you pick the winner outright and your winnings are adjusted according to the risk you took with your choice. For example, you may have to risk $100 just to net a win of $10 on a money line bet if there is a sure favorite (think Bama v. Vandy or the like.)

I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks; but I do fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times. - Bruce Lee


Re: If your bookie is charging you an additional 10% on a loss


Posted: Aug 26, 2013 9:44 AM
 

You actually pay 10% when you win?

I've known quite a few bookies in my time... and I have never heard of anyone ever charging 10% when the customer wins. It's always 10% on a loss.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Yes.***


Posted: Aug 26, 2013 9:46 AM
 



2018 purple level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

You don't really pay 10%... you get all of your wager back


Posted: Aug 26, 2013 9:53 AM
 

but you only win 90% of what you put up... it's really not that hard to understand is it?

If you lose you lose whatever you bet. If I bet $100 and lose then I lost $100 not $110.

Again this is for betting the spread, not money line wagers.

I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks; but I do fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times. - Bruce Lee


Re: If your bookie is charging you an additional 10% on a loss


Posted: Aug 27, 2013 1:12 PM
 

Your analysis seems a bit off. I would say that you need a new bookie, unless of course you enjoy paying the extra 1.1%.

In the example you gave, you bet $100 to win $90. - $10 juice
In the other example, you bet (in essence) $110 ($100 + $10 for juice in a loss - 10%) to win $100 -> $10 juice.

Now the other gambler, who you say needs to find a new bookie, could bet $99 ($90 + $9 for juice in a loss - 10%) to win $90.

In the short term it doesn't seem like much, but over the long term and hundreds/thousands of bets it amounts to a lot.

Those small percentages over the long term is what keeps Vegas in business.


Well if he bet $99 and only paid $9 then he's already


Posted: Aug 27, 2013 2:18 PM
 

getting a better deal. In your example if we're holding 10% as the figure it would be $9.90...

Look, it works out either way, but what I'm saying is when you give whomever you place your bet with your cash they aren't going to run a negative balance for you.

In other words using your example, if I want to bet $100 and then I lose, then the guy I bet with has to come looking for me to get his $10... who wants to do that? It would be a very poor business strategy IMO.

That's why most take your money, then if you lose they keep it all, and if you win they pay you back what you put up and take the "vig", "juice", or what I call it, "profit" out of your winnings. Why would you want to have to keep up with the winners and losers? You only owe the winners money this way and don't have to do anything with the losing bets, except pocket their money.

Having to run around after your clients collecting that 10% when they lose would mean more work, and good luck getting degenerate gamblers to cough up any extra money after a losing streak. Lol.

I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks; but I do fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times. - Bruce Lee


I hope everyone betting on UGA....


Posted: Aug 26, 2013 2:37 AM
 

Lose their frickin $$

GO TIGERS!!!!!

military_donation.jpg

Replies: 28  

TIGER TICKETS

FB GAME: NC State
FOR SALE: Two sets of 2 (4 total) in Section R Row BB. Sets are separated by just a few seats. $250 ea. Heism...

Buy or Sell CU Tickets and More in Tiger Tickets!

[ Archives - Tiger Boards Archive ]
Start New Topic
4530 people have read this post