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CU Guru [1955]
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I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 2:31 AM
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Oh sure - it could happen & we might thump the Aggies even worse.
The facts are though - A&M has real talent on both sides just like we do. Mond & Lawrence are the real deal. The backs & receivers for both are top-drawer. Both O & D lines are really good. We've both got very good LBs & secondaries (A&M does have TALL corners). A&M's punter is likely the best in the country, a senior & Ray Guy Award winner. Both have really good coordinators on both sides of the ball. Two of the best HCs in the business who've coached against the other many times. Usually, the outcome is pretty darn close.
In 2019, we don't have much to go on. A&M thumped Tex St in game 1 - a 3&9 Sunbelt team in '18 that had some awful losses. CU played a team under construction with barely a foundation laid under new management & short on materials. And in their openers, neither team really opened the books to reveal much. Those books will be totally open Sept 7.
Seems these are two evenly matched heavyweights, who will probably fight it out down to the last minute. One might get ahead by a couple of scores, only to see the other claw back & take it.
Probably comes down to turnovers & who makes the most big plays. Who can remain highly focused & who wins the coaching chess match.
I trust our proven, winning coaches to have CU totally prepared, but I don't dismiss Jimbo & his coaches having their team equally prepared.
A battle of heavyweights likely to be more a thriller than "over by the end of the 3rd."
Nothing will shock me, but I'm leaning toward this being a close classic.
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All-In [30804]
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Their secondary is weak and they have no depth
Sep 3, 2019, 2:41 AM
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at linebacker. I see our receivers having a field day in the first half and Etienne putting the game away in the 3rd quarter.
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Orange Blooded [3367]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 3:04 AM
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TAM is not a heavyweight just a middle of the pack SEC team. Sure they will be much better than GT but until they prove their worth . I’m not scared one bit.
CU- 31
TAM-13
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110%er [9298]
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I’ve placed a decent amount of wagers for years
Sep 3, 2019, 4:45 AM
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Seems like a ton of points and almost like Vegas is begging you to take aTm. IMO the line should be about 12.5-13.5. I’m not going to touch this game betting wise
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110%er [5388]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 5:37 AM
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One of our three no doubt games this year. We are going to curb stomp the Aggies.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 6:55 AM
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38-31. It will be a dogfight.
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110%er [7191]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 7:01 AM
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I don't buy point spreads either.
At the end of the night, one team will be 2-0, the other 1-1
and it doesn't matter how much the spread is.
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All-In [27366]
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42-10***
Sep 3, 2019, 7:03 AM
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All-In [48078]
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Re: 42-10***
Sep 3, 2019, 7:38 AM
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You think they will beat us that bad? I hope we can at least keep it close.
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Orange Blooded [2203]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 8:06 AM
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I think this spread sounds right. Vegas tends to be very accurate anyway. I think the line last week was within a point or two which is pretty incredible since we won by 38 points. If we go into the 4th quarter up by 10, that's still a tight game for the home team. Then we add another TD or TD/FG in the 4th quarter more than them, that would put the spread right on the money. They had some incredible luck last year with tipped balls falling into the hands of their receivers. Often the word "luck" is overused in football, but those tipped balls were sheer luck. Also, we have a much better QB situation this year, and it's at home. 41 - 21 sounds about right to me.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 8:10 AM
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Jimbo always has a team that plays us tough. I would not touch that spread for a bet on the Tigers.
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Orange Blooded [2418]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 8:54 AM
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Our track record in September is to win but win close in these type games.
We don't many blowout wins in September during Dabo's tenure.
Fine by me, dont get me wrong... I will take a 1 point win... but yeah 19 point spread sounds like a lot.
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CU Guru [1370]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 9:12 AM
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I think we just need to show their fans and players what loud is. They think the 12 man gives them an advantage. Our fans just need to bring it early and often! With that said our team cannot play like we did against GT and expect a comfortable win. Our receivers were having a hard time getting separation from GT DB's off the line which caused Trevor to be off due to timing and they have some big physical corners which will try to do the same. If the crowd is in early and we don't have any turnovers we have a big chance to get up a few early like we did last year. If not its going to be a long tight game.
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All-TigerNet [10614]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 9:06 AM
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I'm still not convinced that Jimbo is a "great" coach. Yes, he was with Winston, just like Chizik was with Cam Newton. He is a good coach with a good team, but he is going to need more than that to beat the Tigers. I think if we can get some pressure on Mond and contain his runs we can match the spread. Otherwise I won't be surprised to see a one score game.
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All-TigerNet [10822]
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he will take over the west when Saban retires***
Sep 3, 2019, 10:30 AM
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CU Medallion [64977]
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Me neither. If I was still a bettor, my money would be on
Sep 3, 2019, 9:09 AM
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Clemson to win, but A&M to beat that spread. That's not a knock on us, it is respect to them.
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110%er [5032]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 10:00 AM
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I'll be happy with just one more point than the Ags have. lol
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Scout Team [198]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 11:22 AM
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Taking the points and A&M is the obvious bet. That makes me think it's a sucker bet. If sucker bets are real this is a sucker's bet. The "house" knows something we don't.
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All-In [40872]
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Here is what the house knows
Sep 3, 2019, 3:02 PM
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The game was close last year.
Why was it close? Mond had his best game of the year. Clemson's D was caught off guard a bit and they sure made some plays.
On the other side of the ball, Clemson was struggling with a QB identity. Play was bad and it was early in the year.
This was a new coach in his first game. While we know Chicklets and his tendencies from FSU, we didn't know what he would do with the personnel. That combined with a home game gave A&M the edge.
For those reasons we roll. Of course it could be that Chicklets just out schemed us and will do it again. Cuse was able to do that to us with a similar style QB.
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Letterman [285]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 12:41 PM
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Haha I love the spin... IF we didn't play AM this year and SCAR beat them, we would say they were a middle of road SEC team and it wasn't a quality win. Now we have them on our schedule and that middle of the road SEC team (until proven otherwise) is now evenly matched with the tigers...
Tigers roll in this one although I'm curious where the line shakes out come kickoff
Vegas sharps have disagreed with me so far as the line opened at 18.5 and now is down to 17.5 indicating sharp action on the dog. I think the line finds support at 17pts
I find it more interesting that the Over has moved 4pts already..bet up to 64.5 from 60 with 90% of money coming on the over.
What it all mean? There are some professional betters putting big money TAM can score on us and keep it relatively close.
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Orange Blooded [2248]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 4:07 PM
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It's tough to judge the "sharps" on Tuesday afternoon. Professional gamblers have a pretty good feel for how the line is moving. Any of them that like Clemson have not laid their money yet. I would look for the line to actually move back up closer to game time.
Our last game closer than 20 was 12 games ago, and unless the reserves give up a couple of scores late, I think that it stays that way.
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Associate AD [839]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 2:33 PM
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I thought it should be 22.5. I think we'll beat them 49-21 or something like that. There is a huge gap between Clemson and any team not in the top 5-6. Our offense is loaded with first round talent, no college d can even really slow it down.
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CU Guru [1222]
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Re: I'm not buying the 18-20 point spread vs A&M
Sep 3, 2019, 2:49 PM
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Vegas doesn't have big buildings and shiny lights because they are dumb.
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CU Medallion [53716]
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Me either. I am more in the 21-22 range...***
Sep 3, 2019, 4:23 PM
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50
