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I have to address this about yesterdays game...
Mar 18, 2013, 8:04 PM
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Generally in 2-0 counts, hitters will see good pitches. But when a guy is hitting less than .275, the odds arent in your favor that he'll get a hit, even if he gets a pitch he likes. The pitcher will ALWAYS have the advantage. Ask McGibbon who is hitting under .200, yet would be over .350 if he didnt hit line drives right at people.
So yesterday, down 6-0, bases loaded, Wilkerson and Boulware looming on deck and in the hole, Leggett let our FR in the 2-hole swing on 2-0, right after the pitcher had been struggling to find the zone. WE WERE DOWN 6-0! We arent the type of team thats gonna score 6 runs in the last 4 or 5 innings of games just by pounding out hits. We needed the benefit of some walks. Once again, Leggett doesnt know how to play the odds.
If you wanna come at me with your cliche "2-0 is a hitters count" thats fine. But its a HITTERS count. Our line-up is littered with mostly batters and only a couple of hitters. Youve got to play the odds.
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Recruit [81]
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Re: I have to address this about yesterdays game...
Mar 18, 2013, 8:15 PM
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Many times a player swings on his own....and a coach will cover for him in most cases.
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All-Conference [406]
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I know, thats why you give him the take sign there...
Mar 18, 2013, 8:24 PM
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You dont trust a FR who is not even half way into his first year to make that decision on his own.
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110%er [6937]
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Re: I wish that we would defend the plate. Taking too many
Mar 18, 2013, 8:33 PM
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third strikes.
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All-Conference [406]
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Found some stats about 2-0 counts...
Mar 18, 2013, 8:48 PM
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If you put the ball in play on 2-0, your average is .343. If you make it past a 2-0 count, your OBP is .494. Thats a 15.1% increase on the odds that youll reach base.
If your in a position where you need a hit, ex: man on 3rd or 2nd, then swing away. But when your a less-than-.275 hitter and a BB scores a run, take the pitch.
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CU Medallion [53716]
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Yep. I don't know much about baseball but that is what I
Mar 18, 2013, 9:00 PM
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told a friend yesterday. You just have to give yourself the best chance to score the most runs. If he gits a hit, you score two, MAYBE,and then you have men on first and second with an out. Even if it is first and third, you still need a hit, balk,passed ball. But, a walk or a hit batter won't help. At 2-0, take your chances on a walk, take an easy run, and start all over again. And personally, I think a lot of pitchers that walk a runner in will walk the next guy. They will at least be trying to throw strikes.
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Orange Blooded [2609]
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come on billiam, it was Clemson not Scar playing***
Mar 18, 2013, 9:28 PM
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Orange Blooded [4988]
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So how do you know he didn't get a take sign?
Mar 18, 2013, 9:40 PM
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Maybe he missed the sign and swung away? Wouldn't be the first time a baseball player missed a sign.
How bout getting Jack's perspective on the situation before acting like you know what happened and proclaiming that our coach "doesnt know how to play the odds."
It's pretty easy to coach from the couch and even easier to criticize when you have no idea what is going on inside that dugout!
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One really good reason...
Mar 18, 2013, 9:43 PM
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THIS IS A COMMON OCCURENCE!!! For the last several years, Leggett has allowed batters with terrible averages swing at pitches in very OBP-favorable counts. This has happened several times this year, too. Him missing the sign would cross my mind if this didnt happen all the time.
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Orange Blooded [4988]
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Ever thought about findin out his thoughts on the situation?
Mar 18, 2013, 10:01 PM
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It would seem only fair to at least try to inquiring on his reasoning before proclaiming he doesn't know something. Ever thought of asking a reporter or radio personality to try to get an answer about situations like that?
To me it seems kind of silly to be looking for a BB from a pitcher who had issued only 2 of them all season and 1 of them was the hitter before. Odds are he's not going to do it again. You're down 6, game is heading into the latter stages, you've got runners everywhere and your hitter is probably going to see the best pitch of the AB. Your 2 hitter is a contact guy so he's going to put the ball in play so I think it makes a lot of sense to jump on a good pitch instead of risking putting yourself in a hole later in the AB.
Then again I guess I'm pretty stupid agreeing with a guy that has been coaching college baseball for 35 years instead of you!
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All-Conference [406]
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He's a contact guy... not a hitter. With 2 outs, you dont
Mar 18, 2013, 10:14 PM
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just need contact. You need him to reach base. And stats show that the odds are just as much in the hitter's favor on 2-1 as they are on 2-0, so taking their isnt hurting your chances at all.
And "jump" on a good pitch????? Most of our line-up would be lucky to trip and fall on a good pitch, much less jump on it. You guys on here with cliche terms and slogans like "2-0 is a hitters count" need to understand that we have to look past the "book" bc we dont have a team of hitters. This isnt the MLB. Youve got to find ways to manufacture runs in different ways. If telling a sub-.275 hitter to play for a BB when he's 2-0 gives you better odds of scoring, then do it.
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Orange Blooded [4988]
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Considering who was on the mound a BB was the worst odds
Mar 18, 2013, 10:27 PM
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of all. If you're such a numbers guy then you should realize you have to take account of all the numbers in a certain situation, not just pick and choose ones that support what you want.
We weren't getting a BB there plain and simple. Not on that guy. Looking for one would be insane. Plus we're down 6, not 1 or 2 and we already have baserunners. What we need is someone to drive them in, not end up striking out looking trying to draw a BB.
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All-Conference [406]
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So you think there was a better chance of getting a hit...
Mar 18, 2013, 10:37 PM
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there than getting a BB? He's a sub-.275 hitter! And the point is that 2-1 is the same statistical chance of getting a hit as 2-0. Theres virtually no difference in batting averages. So whats it hurting to take there?
The bases were juiced. The pitcher was 2-0 bc he was losing his control, not bc he was trying to walk in a run to get to Wilkerson.
And yes you need hits there... but Id rather make him take, get to 2-1, then turn him lose. The only way he should swing then is if the pitcher throws a second consecutive strike after struggling. With Wilkerson and Boulware waiting to come up, theres no way I wouldve let him end the inning on a 2-0 count after the pitcher had started laboring some.
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Orange Blooded [4988]
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First of all .275 is not a bad BA
Mar 18, 2013, 10:49 PM
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There's a ton of guys that would love to hit that. Secondly, we're only a 1/3 of the way into the season. If you're already taking the bat out of your #2 hitter you're in for a long year.
The last thing you want this early on is for your players to think you don't have faith in them. Plus averages shouldn't be too concerning this early anyways. Lots of baseball players get off to poor starts.
I'd hardly say he was losing control b/c he was 2-0. He was fairly in command all game. I don't think getting behind in the count phased him very much.
Most importantly the pitch he hit was a strike anyway. We weren't getting a BB. Taking that pitch wouldn't have made the count 3-0. It's not like a swung at a ball. I wouldn't be surprised if Duggar was sitting on a fastball and gonna take anything else. Better odds to see a strike and if not see if he can throw an offspeed pitch in the zone.
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All-Conference [406]
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.275 isnt a bad avg these days, true. But when youre down...
Mar 18, 2013, 11:01 PM
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6-0, youre gonna have to get some free runs via BB, HBP, errors, etc. Making a guy take one pitch isnt taking the bat out of his hands. Youre mistaken there. And that shouldnt shake his confidence. Thats baseball. If taking on 2-0 hurts his feelings than he's in for a rough 4yrs bc hes playing a sport where even the best will fail 70% of the time. THAT STAT will hurt his feelings.
He was in control for most of the game, but that inning we were getting to him. We let him off the hook bc we didnt force his hand.
And yes, it was a strike. But now we'll never know what wouldve happened the pitch after. There couldve been a wild pitch, HBP, balk, or he couldve hung a meat pitch or just gone 3-1. Im not saying you always play for the small chance that youll get a wild pitch, HBP, balk, etc. But if hitter succeed the same amount of times on 2-1 as they do on 2-0, whats the harm in making him take?
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Orange Blooded [4988]
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Guess we just won't agree***
Mar 18, 2013, 11:28 PM
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All-Conference [406]
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Thats the beautiful thing about baseball...
Mar 18, 2013, 11:31 PM
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every offensive theory only succeeds a small amount of the time, so is there really a right answer? Haha, good debate though, man.
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Recruit [81]
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Re: So how do you know he didn't get a take sign?
Mar 18, 2013, 9:54 PM
[ in reply to So how do you know he didn't get a take sign? ] |
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If you take 12 players and line them up with half being the batter and the other half being base runners and give a sign....at least 2 will miss the sign. If laps were to be run if one player misses a sign, they would be running laps the whole practice.
Missed signs are common in the baseball. Coaches pull out their hair over missed signs in baseball. Football might even be worse for missed assignments.
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110%er [6654]
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Agree with Billiam on this one!***
Mar 18, 2013, 9:48 PM
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CU Guru [1464]
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You're wrong because:
Mar 18, 2013, 11:17 PM
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2-0 is the best pitch a batter will see. The hitter should be coached to look for a particular pitch and location on 2-0 and swing if its there. Same goes for 3-0 but you can make a better argument to take in certain situations with certain hitters. If the hitter can't learn the strike zone or can't produce the coach should find someone else. If he coach doesn't have faith at this level then the hitter shouldn't be playing. This isn't little league. Duggar is hitting at the top, you have trust him on 2-0 if you're gonna hit him there. Why would you want to put a struggling hitter in a more difficult situation if that's your arguement. By the same token UVA has excellent pitchers that aren't likely to walk us so why take away what advantages we can get?
Also, I answered your Baum vs Wilkerson question on the other thread.
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All-Conference [406]
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I just went through this whole thing above...
Mar 18, 2013, 11:25 PM
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if you could please just read what all I posted with the other guy. And Ill take a look on the other thread at what you said.
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All-Conference [406]
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Can you post the link to the other thread? Its not showing
Mar 18, 2013, 11:28 PM
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up in my history. IDK what thats about.
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CU Guru [1464]
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Here you go: Baum vs. Wilkerson
Mar 18, 2013, 11:49 PM
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You're asking the wrong question in my opinion. Of course they would rather face Baum over Wilkerson if everything was even but it wasn't. So the question is would you rather face Baum without a force play or Wilkerson with a force play? The conventional wisdom is you want the force play. I agree with conventional wisdom in this case.
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All-Conference [406]
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Thanks for the repost there. I completely understand where
Mar 18, 2013, 11:53 PM
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youre coming from with this. But in my scenario where you go after Baum and the 2-hole, you dont have to face Wilkerson at all. That was my point the whole time. Once he walked Baum, the odds of not facing Wilkerson were pretty slim. Therefore, he essentially decided to face Wilkerson instead of Baum. Does that make sense bc its gone over some people heads?
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CU Guru [1464]
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I understand your point and you can make that case,
Mar 19, 2013, 12:02 AM
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Particularly in hindsight. However, I probably would have put Baum on like UVA did but I would have pitched around him and if I fall behind 2-0 just given him the IBB at that point.. Like I said, conventional wisdom is to set up the force and in this instance I think it's the best strategy. Had Boulware been on deck I wouldn't have walked him but Wilkerson doesn't scare me enough.
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All-Conference [406]
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Thats just it though, I didnt make that case in hindsight...
Mar 19, 2013, 12:10 AM
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If you go back to the post, I pasted the thread for someone I was debating with. It was the thread I made when the action was going on. I thought it was dumb as soon as it was happening. I go after Baum, but if I fall behind 2-0, I dont give in. I agree with that 100%. I know the dbl play strategy, but theres just not a big enough chance of turning one for me to pass on bringing in a righty to face Baum versus potentially face a switch-hitting Wilkerson.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Re:When you are down 6-0 late in a game, you have to have
Mar 18, 2013, 11:31 PM
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something that goes against the numbers to go in your favor. Playing the numbers down 6 runs, is dumb. Being conservative is what you do when you are winning by 6, not losing.
All opportunities to make something happen, regardless of batting averages, must be taken in times of desperation.
Plus we have no idea if he gets walked had he not swung.
Making complaints in baseball is usually stupid unless you go to the practices. Coaches can notice something during scouting or practice that we are not privy to. You can only judge long-term results in baseball.
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All-Conference [406]
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WHAT????
Mar 18, 2013, 11:35 PM
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"All opportunities to make something happen". So walking in a run and getting Wilkerson to the plate with Boulware on deck isnt making something happen. Why is it that people feel like you have to get hits to "make" something happen. When the bases are loaded, your job is to get the run in and keep the inning going, not necessarily get a hit.
No we dont know if he wouldve walked. But batting avgs are just as good 2-1 as they are 2-0, so where the harm in making him take a pitch? Thats not playing conservative. If you think this team can come storming back from down 6-0 in the 5th just by getting hits youre outside of reality. We needed some BBs and/or HBP. Even errors with men on base.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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You seem to be setting up the argument that...
Mar 18, 2013, 11:40 PM
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since we can't come back with hits, we could come back with walks?
Yes, walking in a run isn't making something happen. Especially if there is no guarantee that the run would be walked in. Nobody traded a free run for an out. What we traded was a 50% for a walk and 1 run for a 20% chance at 2 or 3 runs scoring.
Either way, I realize I am not privy to a large chunk of the variables that the batter or Jack was privy to. This means it would be a waste of time to assert whether or not the call (which you have no idea what the sign was) was a good or bad call.
You are too confident of your ability to properly judge whether the call was good or bad.
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CU Guru [1464]
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Not even 50% chance of a walk. I'm guessing more like 5-10%.***
Mar 18, 2013, 11:42 PM
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All-Conference [406]
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Re: Not even 50% chance of a walk. I'm guessing more like 5-10%.***
Mar 18, 2013, 11:49 PM
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Batting avg at 2-0 are .343. OBP at "through 2-0" is .494. "Through 2-0" means that you are at 2-0 and make it to either 2-1 or 3-0. It wasnt 50% by any means, but it was better than the sub-27.% of getting a hit.
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CU Guru [1464]
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What is Duggar hitting on 2-0 counts? Even if we have that
Mar 18, 2013, 11:52 PM
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info the sample size is probably too small to be relevant so we have to defer to what JL has seen in practice. If it was 3-0 I would accept your side as a valid point but not at 2-0.
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All-Conference [406]
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Idk what he hits on 2-0, but I know that Wilkerson...
Mar 19, 2013, 12:02 AM
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has come up big several times this season and I wouldve played the percentages to get him to the plate. If Duggar had been in front of a terrible hitter, then yeah, swing away bc at .275 hes our last real chance to get some runs. But hes in front of Wilkerson and Boulware. We shouldve done everything possible to get them to the plate.
My thing is, 2-0 isnt different from 2-1 when it comes to a hitters batting avg. The OBP on 2-0 is .343. The OBP for hitters who see pitches past 2-0 spikes to .494, yet theres only a difference of .011 in the batting avgs. So the odds of a BB or HBP go up considerably if you take the 2-0 pitch, and if it is a strike, you havent hurt your chances of getting a hit.
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All-Conference [406]
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We couldnt have come back with only BB, but we couldnt have
Mar 18, 2013, 11:46 PM
[ in reply to You seem to be setting up the argument that... ] |
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with only BB either. You use the numbers 50% and 20%. Yeah, Ill take a 30% increase that Wilkerson sees the plate with bases loaded and Boulware on deck if it means settling for 1 run instead of 2. Youve admitted yourself that the best possible way to get a run there AND get Wilkerson to the plate was to take. Im not suggesting that he take every pitch and not swing. Im just saying he shouldve taken once he got to 2-0, then turned loose on 2-1. Both counts yield the same batting abg among hitters so what was the harm in taking there? Nobody can answer that question.
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CU Guru [1464]
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Except the odds are more like .330 vs. .08 so green light.***
Mar 18, 2013, 11:55 PM
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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This is a "not seeing the forest for the trees" situation.
Mar 18, 2013, 11:57 PM
[ in reply to We couldnt have come back with only BB, but we couldnt have ] |
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Walking in a run is worthless when you are down 6. A 2-0 count raises the percentage of a hittable pitch, and multi-RBI hits were OUR ONLY POSSIBLE CHANCE.
The percentages of the situation at that moment are made less important by the holistic game situation of being down 6 runs to a solid pitching staff. You can't play the numbers. You have to roll the dice and hope for something better than the numbers. That is the bottom line.
And again, my main argument is that it is a waste of time for you to criticize that particular decision. Any time there are a significant number of unknown variables, and any time you are dealing with such minor differences in percentages, and any time a game situation RELIES on something rare or unexpected happening (being down 6 runs) then it becomes more difficult (and for us impossible) to accurate or fairly judge certain decisions like the one you bring up.
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All-Conference [406]
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HE BATS INFRONT OF WILKERSON AND BOULWARE!!!
Mar 19, 2013, 12:05 AM
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You act like that one more run was the difference in winning and losing right there. We could tie it on one swing. That means you play to move around the bases and get your best bats to the plate with runners on.
Baseball is about looking down the batting order. Id rather have 1 run in, Wilkerson at the plate with Boulware on deck, rather than greatly increase my chance of making an out for that extra run. The only way to win was to get Wilkerson and Boulware to the plate with runners on. Idk what you dont get about that.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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You keep acting like the walk was automatic.
Mar 19, 2013, 12:12 AM
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It wasn't. If your argument relies on a 50-50 chance (at best) of even happening, then its weak.
It was just as likely that if he watched pitches go by he would have been struck out. At the moment that the count was 2-0, there was a very small chance that Boulware would have seen the plate that inning regardless of swinging.
There is a lot more uncertainty in baseball than certainty. One thing that is certain, you need your batting order to be more aggressive when there are runners in scoring position and you are down 6 runs. Multiple good things have to happen, and they have to happen at the top and bottom of the order.
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All-Conference [406]
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Re: You keep acting like the walk was automatic.
Mar 19, 2013, 12:18 AM
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"It was just as likely that if he watched pitches go by he would have been struck out".
WHAT!!!
Im suggesting he take one pitch. Why does everyone think Im saying he shouldve not moved the bat for the rest of the game?
The odds of him reaching base at 2-0 were .343. The odds of reaching base if you make it past a 2-0 count are .494. Yeah, Im gonna take a pitch and make the pitcher labor a little more when hes clearly struggling some.
Playing and being agressive is great, but theres a time to play the odds. Thats baseball. Not knowing when to hold back is what cost us the Sun finale at NCST and Fri nights game against UVA.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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If you play the odds down 6 runs in college baseball you
Mar 19, 2013, 12:21 AM
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will come back 0% of the time.
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All-Conference [406]
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Okay...
Mar 19, 2013, 12:26 AM
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In baseball, the only way to comeback down 6-0 is to play the odds at getting men on base. Not getting hits, but getting men on base. When you cant tie the game with one swing, your job is to reach base. You do it via BB, HBP, hits, etc. Anything you can do to reach, you do it.
Scoring that many runs is only done if a lot of guys see the plate. So from pitch to pitch, you step out of the box and reevaluate: what gives me the best chance of reaching 1st this at bat. And thats not over analyzing and its not too much to think about between pitches. Thats big boy baseball.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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There is no objective evidence to support any theory that
Mar 19, 2013, 12:38 AM
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says playing the odds is the superior way to come back from a 6 run deficit.
At least I have abstract reasoning on my side....
If the odds of accomplishing objective A are very unfavorable, then doing things normally or conservatively does not alter the chance of accomplishing Objective A. The odds remain very unfavorable.
However, by changing the aggressiveness of your approach to accomplishing objective A you alter the odds. Now the accomplishment of Objective A is either made more likely or even less likely.
So, being conservative is essentially doing little or nothing to alter bad odds, while being more aggressive at least stands a chance of altering the odds favorably.
Being down 6-0 fits with the above logic, in my opinion. Being down 2 3 or maybe even 4 runs would not.
Either way, your argument is too weak to justify public criticism. Mine would be too.
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All-Conference [406]
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So can you score a lot of runs in a short amount of time
Mar 19, 2013, 12:46 AM
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without baserunners?????
No, you cant. And once your 2-0, the odds of getting that crucial baserunner go up if you make him throw a strike. When you have men on with 2 outs, you do everything possible to keep from making the last out. So you play the odds.
And the odds of getting a lot of hits in a row are FAR less than getting some hits with some BB. Thats common baseball knowledge. Why do you think a lot of teams take pitches till they get a strike in the 9th when theyre down more than 1 run?
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Your first sentence has nothing to do with the discussion.
Mar 19, 2013, 2:08 PM
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The scenario we are discussing involved bases loaded. I never said anything that indicated I do not take baserunners into account. My argument is that once the bases are loaded, if you are down 6 runs late in the game, you have to be aggressive so you can knock 2 or 3 of them in at once... instead of being conservative which will not result in 6 runs by the end of the game.
And the odds of getting a lot of hits in a row are FAR less than getting some hits with some BB. Thats common baseball knowledge. Again with the overall statistics. Your logic fails because certain specific game scenarios do not always follow generalized baseball statistics. This is why computers do not coach baseball teams.
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Letterman [264]
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Re: I have to address this about yesterdays game...
Mar 19, 2013, 12:03 AM
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Yogi Berra had a lifetime batting ave of .285.
But when he was behind by a run and had runners in scoring position his batting ave was much higher than that. You could count on him getting the run in. He didn't go to the plate looking for a walk. He said if you can reach it you can hit it.
Never go to the plate looking for a walk. That bat is in your hand to hit the ball. I'd rather see my guy go after a bad pitch and strike out when he'd have walked if he kept the bat on his shoulder than to look at a third strike.
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All-Conference [406]
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Im not suggesting that once it got to 2-0, take every pitch
Mar 19, 2013, 12:14 AM
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from there. Im saying take the 2-0. If he throws a strike then its 2-1. The averages for hitters are only .011 different in those counts, so youve lost no advantage by taking a pitch. And Yogi was down 1 run, not 6. We couldnt get the lead or even tie with one swing, so play the best percentages on getting a run and let your best two guys in Wilkerson and Boulware hit. They were on deck and in the hole.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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You rely too heavily on statistics spread over all players.
Mar 19, 2013, 12:16 AM
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Baseball coaches have many more variables they consider than what you are using to consider the validity of the call.
If you don't acknowledge that, then you will never get anywhere.
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All-Conference [406]
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I know what youre saying, so here you go...
Mar 19, 2013, 12:21 AM
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Duggar is a sub-.275 hitter who hasnt seen enough 2-0 counts to make any kind of judgment at all. Theres a pitcher laboring with your best two hitters on deck and you put it on your FR to get a hit instead of playing the odds. With bases loaded, he wouldve seen another strike on 2-1 bc UVA didnt wanna risk going 3-1. You dont lose anything by taking a pitch.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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You potentially lose plenty, depending on what Jack saw...
Mar 19, 2013, 12:28 AM
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a tip on what the pitch was going to be, or you could lose the highest percentage of a hittable pitch that you may see for the remainder of the inning, or something picked up in the scouting report on a 2-0 pitch for that pitcher that doesn't apply to a 2-1 pitch... any number of potential variables that we have no way of knowing were involved.
Statistics are too important to some people. Baseball is much more than just numbers. It's an art more than a science.
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All-Conference [406]
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Everything you just said makes perfect sense if we're down
Mar 19, 2013, 12:34 AM
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a pair of runs or even three. But when youre down 6 runs, you cant come back even with two consecutive HRs. Youve got to keep the guys moving around the bases until your biggest sticks get up: Wilkerson and Boulware. As much as Ive been around the game, Ive realized over the years that its so much about just putting yourself in the best statistical advatage. Only a couple of times a game do you go against the book bc of a gut feeling.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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You win because you stayed up later than me. My wife is
Mar 19, 2013, 12:40 AM
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pissed, so I have to shut up and quit. Have a good one.
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All-Pro [682]
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Right Coach...***
Mar 19, 2013, 7:26 AM
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Walk-On [133]
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Re: I have to address this about yesterdays game...
Mar 19, 2013, 9:43 AM
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Hey billiam0012, are you the guy that fat Jonah Hill played in Moneyball? You and all of your statistics....
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