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All-TigerNet [12233]
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Interesting series of Tweets from Adam Housley
Mar 15, 2020, 9:05 AM
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Reporter/Journalist Adam Housley has a series of tweets where he claims some "senior members of government in both parties" and "first responders" believe it's possible that the Coronavirus has been in the USA much longer than originally thought and may have already run it's course through some parts of the country.
Makes me wonder if he isn't on to something because back in early February, the wife and I had a bug that tested negative for the flu but dang sure felt like it. Fever bouncing between 100-102 for days, chills, body aches all over, coughing etc... Took us about 5 days to finally break the bouncing fever and another week to finally feel "normal". We still have no idea what virus we had but after testing us our Doctor told us it's "not the flu" but had seen a lot of folks with the flu and this "not the flu" bug. At the time, I just thought surely the test was wrong and that we really had the flu but now I wonder. Hmmm...
Anyway, here is the pieced together a series of tweets from Adam Housley followed by the Twitter link:
Here’s the latest: cautious optimism. Spoke with several senior members of government in both parties and also some medial public health first responders and while they not say to be vigilant and measured and sanitize and all that we’ve been told, they also say that if it’s true that China knew of CoronaVirus in early November, the likelihood that it has already run through parts of this country is massive. Meaning we are way past testing and mitigation. It also means we may...may...have moved through it in parts of the U.S. Again..this is very cautious optimism. The first responders I spoke with and several doctors say that flu was rough this winter and many people with very similar symptoms to Covid were sent home to recover. Did they already have it? Has it already been thru here? Thus the rough flu season we’ve experienced already. These are all questions we will know answers to soon enough. I suggest to my colleagues in the media, these are the questions and investigations we should be doing/asking. Politics aside for a couple of weeks. Try it.
https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1238989169562513409
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110%er [8565]
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Curious if your wife got retested for the flu
Mar 15, 2020, 9:19 AM
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I went to the doctor on a Thursday and got tested for the flu and the test came back negative. Since I had a 103 degree temperature my doctor told me to come back the next day if my fever did not break. I went back the next day and got tested and it came back positive.
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All-TigerNet [12233]
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We never bothered with a flu retest since both of our tests
Mar 15, 2020, 9:58 AM
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came back negative for the flu. Since we both had gotten our flu shots back in September we kind of accepted the Doctor's "not the flu" results. The thing about it was we just could not find anything to break the fever - we tried it all from Aspirin, Ibuprofen, Acetaminophen, etc... What worked better than anything else we tried was Excedrin Migraine. The Excedrin could get the fever down to 99 or so but as it wore off the fever would spike again - this bug sucked!
Just a side note - if you use Excedrin Migraine and see it in stores - buy it. The manufacturer suspended manufacturing it in January and has not provided a date for when they will restart production.
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CU Medallion [53716]
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I had the same thing. I think it started Christmas day. Took
Mar 15, 2020, 9:56 AM
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3 weeks to get over the cough....
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CU Medallion [52020]
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Re: I had the same thing. I think it started Christmas day. Took
Mar 15, 2020, 12:14 PM
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So did I--started two days after Christmas. It was the worst cough I've ever experienced resulting in bruised ribs. It took me over a month to recover.
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All-In [27366]
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Yes. This "unusually bad flu season" was unusually
Mar 15, 2020, 9:59 AM
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bad because a lot of it wasn't just the flu.
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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I can almost buy into that theory, it's just that i would
Mar 15, 2020, 10:26 AM
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have expected more people to land in hospitals with serious respiratory issues or more situations across the country similar to the nursing home in Kirkland, WA.
It's logical that it could've made it over here earlier and it's also logical that some cases of COVID-19 could have been mistaken for flu, it's just that i would also expect medical professionals to have seen some things that make them suspicious that there's more going on than just the flu. And given that we've known for months what is going on in China, it wouldn't take a very big leap of logic to put a finger on what that may be.
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110%er [5093]
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Re: I can almost buy into that theory, it's just that i would
Mar 15, 2020, 12:30 PM
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It's hard to believe this because there would have been a lot more deaths in recent months.
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110%er [5434]
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Re: I can almost buy into that theory, it's just that i would
Mar 4, 2023, 7:07 AM
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How do you know this ???
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Legend [16722]
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Re: I can almost buy into that theory, it's just that i would
Mar 15, 2020, 1:50 PM
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Because the death rate is about 1%.
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CU Medallion [56821]
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Re: I can almost buy into that theory, it's just that i would
Mar 15, 2020, 4:25 PM
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What they’re saying is the denominator may be much, much larger so it may not be 1%. Also thousands of deaths attributed to the flu already may not have been the flu.
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CU Guru [1260]
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110%er [5434]
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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I would think the characteristics would be different
Mar 15, 2020, 1:35 PM
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enough that trained medical personnel would notice something.
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All-TigerNet [12233]
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Apparently trained medical personnel do take notice every
Mar 15, 2020, 1:56 PM
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year and report these unidentified non-flu bugs through the CDC to the US Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). The CDC defines the Influenza-like Illness as: "ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza."
Here is a graph showing this year's ILI vs previous years:
Looks like we are generally higher this year for these unknown flu-like illnesses with the exception of a mid-February spike in 2017-2018. However, the 2017-2018 spike had a steep decline as to where the current 2019-2020 season has had a couple of peaks now and is remaining quite high compared to the last 10 seasons. Kind of interesting stuff...
More can be seen here under the ILINet subject:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
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All-TigerNet [10343]
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Re: I can almost buy into that theory, it's just that i would
Mar 15, 2020, 1:35 PM
[ in reply to Re: I can almost buy into that theory, it's just that i would ] |
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So 20000 chalked up to just the flu doesn't seem high to you? Very possible some of these could have been Corona Virus. Like I said before,you never know the REAL truth about these types of things. The government surely isn't going to tell you straight.
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110%er [7219]
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Re: I can almost buy into that theory, it's just that i would
Mar 15, 2020, 2:09 PM
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Influenza deaths per year range from about 12,000 to 50,000, with a recent peak in 2017 of 80,000. Typical mortality (death) rate is .1% or 1/1000 cases.
The best rates that I see for Covid-19 is .6. But, there hasn't been much testing of asymptomatic people, so the rate may actually be much lower. It could also be higher. The Chinese numbers are suspect in my mind, and other countries are not far enough along to tell what it will be in other countries.
Judging by what we see in Italy and France, where doctors are deciding who dies and who gets placed on respirators, we certainly would have known if this virus had been around since the fall.
Italy yesterday showed > 14,000 active cases, 1439 recovered, 1266 deaths. Those are pretty sobering numbers. Today Italy reports 21,157 active cases, recovered and dead have not been updated.
I am not trying to sound alarming, just trying to report actual facts rather than speculation.
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110%er [7219]
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Re: I can almost buy into that theory, it's just that i would
Mar 15, 2020, 2:23 PM
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One more piece of interesting data... last evening the French minister of health reported that over 1/2 of ICU patients with coronavirus in that country are under 60.
Is this an anomaly? Perhaps more people in France that frequent cafes are under 60, and are exposing each other. Pretty interesting stat.
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All-TigerNet [10343]
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Re: I can almost buy into that theory, it's just that i would
Mar 15, 2020, 7:04 PM
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Well we all know the French are a bunch of ####### too so...
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110%er [8681]
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Hall of Famer [24877]
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110%er [7219]
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Re: Interesting series of Tweets from Adam Housley
Mar 15, 2020, 11:50 AM
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Doubtful. This virus has a high mortality rate... Probably 6X as deadly as Influenza by best math I can see at the moment. Many would have died in ICUs of "unexplained" viral illness were that the case. ID experts would have already sounded alarms.
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Legend [16646]
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Doesn't that 'theory' fly in the face of
Mar 15, 2020, 11:53 AM
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How quickly -19 spreads?
There aren't a lot of 'knowns', but the few that exist are those most prudent to act upon. And, unless I missed an 'experts' article, none suggested toilet paper as a remedy, any more than milk and bread stop snow storms. Crazy what folks do with their imaginations...
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110%er [5434]
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Re: Doesn't that 'theory' fly in the face of
Mar 15, 2020, 12:43 PM
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He’s just a know it all lib
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110%er [7219]
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Re: Doesn't that 'theory' fly in the face of
Mar 15, 2020, 1:05 PM
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I am Libertarian through and through. And I am also smart enough to know what I don't know, unlike many here.
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Legend [16646]
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My comment was directed towards
Mar 15, 2020, 1:30 PM
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The Tweeter theory...not you or others.
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All-TigerNet [11626]
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Well...
Mar 15, 2020, 2:01 PM
[ in reply to Doesn't that 'theory' fly in the face of ] |
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My FIL, BIL and myself all fell ill over Christmas break. It started out with a multi day fever and a brutal cough that lasted weeks. All of us got diagnosed as bronchitis after testing negative for flu. I was told I wasn’t contagious any more yet gave it to 3 coworkers in January. All tested negative for flu. My tin foil hat wearing BIL has sworn it was COVID-19 for weeks.
And elderly dying of pneumonia during flu season is hardly newsworthy any other year.
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Legend [16227]
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The current mortaility rate though is based on very limited
Mar 15, 2020, 1:53 PM
[ in reply to Re: Interesting series of Tweets from Adam Housley ] |
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testing - those sick, showing symptoms, or more recently those in a contact chain. That's why unless there is random sampling / testing performed we really don't have much to serve as a base to compare at this point.
I'm all for cautious optimism though. Would be great to learn that we could actually be on the tail end of this and not the front end.
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All-Conference [448]
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Re: Interesting series of Tweets from Adam Housley
Mar 15, 2020, 11:51 AM
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It has been here since November or December. Over one million visitors from China since November and it was rampant in China then. Of course it came here with those visitors. The media starts the hype recently and we have a real problem now. Coincidence? I don’t think so. We are easily manipulated.
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Legend [16646]
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You're connecting an
Mar 15, 2020, 11:55 AM
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Abundance of disconnects...
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All-TigerNet [10833]
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Re: Interesting series of Tweets from Adam Housley
Mar 15, 2020, 3:06 PM
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When and how the virus got here and started to spread doesn't matter much now. At this point, we just have to protect each other to get it under control.
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All-TigerNet [11626]
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Re: Interesting series of Tweets from Adam Housley
Mar 15, 2020, 6:32 PM
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There’s not much more to control if it’s already been through last November. No reason to shut down the nation if the majority have already been exposed.
Just need to be vigilant about cleanliness and keep elderly isolated.
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Orange Blooded [3348]
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Re: Interesting series of Tweets from Adam Housley
Mar 15, 2020, 3:33 PM
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I went to the ER with flu-like symptoms on Christmas day. The PA discouraged doing a flu test (because I think he suspected it was really the coronavirus and he was part of a government cover-up) but he ordered a test anyway only after my wife insisted. It came back positive for Flu-B, or at least that's what he said. He didn't want to prescribe Tamiflu because I had cold-like symptons for 4 days before going to the ER and he said it wouldn't help (but the real reason is because he knew I really had coronavirus and he was part of a government cover-up as previously mentioned). My wife insisted on a Tamiflu prescription anyway. It didn't really help much and I stayed out of work for another two and a half weeks. The cough persisted for a month. It's only now that I realize I was duped into believing I had Flu-B, when it was really coronavirus the whole time.
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110%er [6280]
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Re: Interesting series of Tweets from Adam Housley
Mar 15, 2020, 6:54 PM
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??????
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All-TigerNet [12233]
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