My four picks for the CFB playoffs and explanations

Dec 7, 2014, 12:42 AM

My prediction for the 4 playoff teams are #1 Alabama, #2 Oregon, #3 FSU, #4 Ohio State.

I think that there could possibly be a small chance if the committee decides that they want to see a sexy BAMA-FSU matchup, then they could possibly put FSU at #4 just to create that matchup, but FSU shouldn't be ranked that low as an undefeated teams.

Regardless of whether FSU ends up #3 or #4, I think that Ohio State will move up to #4 on the strength of their 59-0 win over Wisconsin. Wisconsin had the #2 defense in the nation allowing less than 1 yard per game more than Clemson, and the Buckeyes were able to score 59 with their 3rd string QB after Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett who are out for the season. The Badgers also had a very prolific rushing offense led by Heisman hopeful Melvin Gordon, but they were shutdown and held to only 258 total yards with 71 yards on the ground.

I think that Ohio State legitimately deserves the #4 ranking, but there are also some behind the scenes reasons that the committee might pick them over previously #3 TCU. The two Big 12 teams that were widely considered to be co-champions (before the commissioner apparently made statements suggesting that they would only choose one conference champion), TCU and Baylor, both finished the season 11-1. They played 7 games against the same opponents and also played head-to-head. Baylor beat TCU in their head-to-head matchup, but before this weekend, TCU was #3 and Baylor was #6 because of TCU's prior victory of previously 1 loss #9 Kansas State and Baylor having a worse loss with West Virginia beating them. Now that Baylor has beaten Kansas State as well, their strength of schedule looks better and they have the strength of their head-to-head win over TCU. Ergo, Baylor should move ahead of TCU.

Regardless of whether the committee were to pick TCU or Baylor, there would be a huge amount of criticism either way. If they chose TCU over Baylor to be in the playoffs it would be despite both teams having the same records and Baylor beating TCU. If they pick Baylor over TCU that would mean that TCU would have to drop at least two spots following a 52 point victory today over Iowa State. They would be open to a ton of criticism no matter which choice they made. They would almost have to put Baylor ahead of TCU now that they have both beaten KSU because Baylor beat TCU, but it would be unfair to OSU to get jumped by Baylor following their 59-0 win over Wisconsin.

The only way for the committee to avoid a huge amount of criticism and negative media scrutiny is for them to leave out both Baylor and TCU in favor of Ohio State. They would still have to deal with a ton of angry TCU fans after dropping them multiple spots following their huge victory and other Big 12 fans who think their conference deserves a spot over a much weaker Big Ten conference. I still think that would pale in comparison to the criticism they would get by making the choice between Baylor and TCU.

It doesn't seem completely ethical for them to consider possible negative reactions when choosing the 4 playoff teams, but just because it could be portrayed that way, I think they will absolutely consider all of these factors behind closed doors. They could justify the tOSU pick based on the win over Wisconsin and say that having to pick between the two Big 12 teams had nothing to do with their decision.

I would be very surprised to see anything other than Alabama, Oregon, FSU, and Ohio State tomorrow evening.

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Yeah, with a committee of so few members that have weekly meetings together to discuss their rankings, I think that is very likely that there are some ethically questionable motivations coming into play. They could pick Ohio State primarily to eliminate the need to choose between TCU and Baylor but justify it for other reasons. They could also rank the top 4 in whatever order they want to create specific matchups. They could put FSU at #4 to play Bama for a better geographical matchup that also puts two of the most storied programs pitted against one another. They could try to justify FSU at #4 based on the fact that FSU has supposedly struggled in many of their games this year and hasn't looked as impressive. They already had them at #4 before this weekend despite the fact that they were undefeated and the 3 teams ahead of them all had 1 loss.

My four picks for the CFB playoffs and explanations

Re: My four picks for the CFB playoffs and explanations

I agree with your reasoning, and like I said in another post

Re: I agree with your reasoning, and like I said in another post

Re: I agree with your reasoning, and like I said in another post

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