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From the French. More reliable than China anyway.
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From the French. More reliable than China anyway.


Apr 8, 2020, 11:31 AM

Obesity is the biggest overall risk factor with covid, and age as well obviously. We will have a harder time than France.

https://news.trust.org/item/20200408103237-l2epf


The main thing that really struck me was him talking about herd immunity. In France, they're at 10-15% exposure levels with the toll they've suffered so far. Nowhere near the level needed for herd immunity where the virus will decline on its own without social distancing. If that exposure level holds here (60/70-per 1 case), with our social distancing, even after we flatten the curve, we're in a long haul getting from 15% to 50-60% exposed. Say we get a million confirmed cases and test similarly to France. That's 60 million (maybe 70 million) cases total in the US exposed. That puts us halfway there, IF WE HAD A MILLION CASES. 2 million confirmed cases, under french testing standards in the US gets us to herd immunity levels. That 100-200K death estimate seems about in the ballpark.

unknown are the french testing standards and numbers. But assuming they're in the ballpark of our own....

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Hey


Apr 8, 2020, 12:03 PM

wut?

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Re: Hey


Apr 8, 2020, 1:59 PM

This is what he said that's concerning......

Despite the rapid spread of the virus in France, the country is still far from getting to the point where 50% to 60% of the population has been infected and recovered and at which point a certain level of "herd immunity" is reached, Delfraissy said.

"Initial data show that the number of people who may have developed immunity is lower than we imagined, about 10-15%," said the veteran infectious diseases specialist who has led French research into Ebola and AIDS.

100K cases nets them 10-15% immunity. So it will take 470-500K cases to create true herd immunity in France, when the virus will fade away on it's own. That's also the point when you can go back to roughly 100% working and socializing. Scale those numbers up for the US population and you likely have the 100-240K deaths, and 5 millions+ cases. And that assumes the US and France test the same way. Let's hope they're testing better than we are.

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