Re: Help me understand! Please.

In what way is a player leaving early for the NFL "a life mistake" as so many people seem to want to say?

Before you answer, let me poke holes in a few of the most common ones i hear.

1. A degree will serve them better
- Dabo has a policy that any player who leaves early to persue the NFL will still have their remaining education paid for if they do decide to return to school afterwards. Soooooo, what am i missing on this one?

2. They could improve their draft stock and make MORE money.
- Is V Smith going to grow 5 inches this off season? Is RR McCloud going to get faster (or also grow) this off season? The NFL looks much more at measurables than production.

Like it or not the shift toward more juniors leaving to the draft has started. It used to be that only the hyper talented and productive entered early but that just isnt the case anymore. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if ten years from now staying until your senior years was the exception, not the norm. Keep making money hand over fist while paying the labor peanuts and that's what happens. How many unpaid internships do you see anymore?

CUD92

Trainer [43]

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Joined: 12/19/17

Jan 8, 2018, 1:43 PM

thollin Personally I think it's different situation for every player but there are a number of factors to consider.

1) Money: This has so many layers within it because you have guaranteed money and stability or massive contract. Do you bet on yourself to essentially guarantee yourself a roster spot for 3 years unless you do something illegal or do you bet on yourself progressing and go for a 2nd round grade where teams can't put an extra year onto your rookie contract and keep you at that low wage for another year? If you're a first round draft pick especially top 15 then you're getting more guaranteed money, and teams are much less likely to cut you or let you become a FA because of the cap penalties. Also, 1st rounders they have the option of adding a 4th year onto your current contract and keep you at that lower salary for another year, but it's what they get in exchange for that stability, usually offset by merchandise/advertising/sponsorships, etc.

Also keep in mind when you're a lower round pick it actually incentivizes teams to cut you because there is no salary cap hit I believe after round 5 and the majority of those guys that get drafted don't even stay on a team. So from a financial standpoint people are saying oh get the $7400/week that only applies to people who make the team, and even then between an agent/expenses, etc you're really not making as much as you think. It's essentially like saying you're in a $500k house in California vs. in Clemson, money goes a lot further in one over the other.

2) Draft Grade discrepancies and listening to the "wrong advisors": See Jayron Kearse. NFL pedigree, incredible size, speed, etc. Had a good RS Freshman Season and a great start to his RS Sophmore year but he limped to the finish line. Kearse had a 2nd round grade on him and he was taken in the 7th round, he's lucky to be on the team and it will be a real miracle for him to get to a second contract where the big money is at. When you're a lower round pick it actually incentivizes teams to cut you because there is no salary cap hit I believe after round 5 and the majority of those guys that get drafted don't even stay on a team. It happens every year where players hear 2nd or lower round and automatically think 2nd rounder.

3) Combine vs. Tape: For certain players that are athletic freaks (Wilkins, Lawrence, Cain etc.) they will shine at their position group and drop some jaws. This will allow them to rise up draft boards whereas others (Hyatt, Bryant) their tape is really where they make their money. So weighing that option and asking yourself did I end on a good foot for this season to really put myself in a good position so post combine I'll still be a 1st round/2nd round grade or no. Right now grades are like the pre-season rankings, they're a good starting point but have little to no bearing on where players will actually finish in the rankings.

4) Other Players at their position this year vs. future years: Is a certain draft class loaded at a position group or especially thin? Like last year with Gallman at RB it was loaded with (Cook, McCaffrey, Fournette, etc.) he was at best fighting for the 4th best running back being taken and I believe if he would have stayed this season and had an average year he would have been a 2nd-early 3rd rounder. This affects where you're going to go and sometimes saying I could stay another year and just purely by numbers if I stay the same with what I had this year I could go a round or more higher than where I am.

5) Legacy/etc.: This is much more than just getting an education and it applies more to the Juniors especially on defense. When they came in as freshman they had players that had opportunities to go as Juniors but stayed to help put Clemson on the map and improve their own stock as well (Beasley, Jared, Josh Watson, etc.) For players like Wilkins this is his best opportunity to unseat the Perry's and be known as the best DT to come through Clemson, not to mention make history. In the event that all 3 (wilkins, ferrell, and bryant come back Clemson very well could have the first team ever in the history of college football to have their entire DL drafted in the first round. Not to mention make another run, win another ACC championship/national championship and set the precedent for the younger guys and build up their legacy.

With that being said for each group has different things bringing them back.

DL: Wilkins, Ferrell, Bryant
With these guys it's a matter of do you want to be 1st rounders all of them and get more guaranteed money or do you want to take a chance that you're going to be able to thrive in the NFL and 4 years from now really get paid because that's the big debate as far as money is concerned.

When Scouts really analyze these guys' season and their stats what really happened, they ask were they consistent throughout the season or did they have one game that really threw off their stats. This is especially true for Bryant as the Auburn game was his coming out party and after that I really can't think of a massive game where he had a ton of production and highlight plays. After that he at times looked like he was completely dominated. Christian personally I think had a worse year this year than last, now that could be due to consistent double teams and no doubt he made some phenomenal plays but his production on the field seemed like it went down.

Another thing to factor in did they show they could consistently play against the run and the pass and get production or are they one trick ponies. One could argue that as dominant as they were, they all were pushed around multiple times during the year and that was with having 3 other elite prospects next to them. Also the question of did they have multiple good seasons in a row or was this their coming out year and now considered "one year wonders". Even though Wilkins' numbers are down he at least has shown for 2 years that he consistently made plays. The other two are one year are without a doubt one year wonders and I fear that while some Scouts have them high and they're all 1st round deserving grades in my book there are other players at their division I would draft instead of them if I hadn't seen them play in person as much as I have.

Finally you move into the two areas that people want to talk about: will they improve their draft stock or not by staying, and the potential of injuries. As far as injuries are concerned, the one thing that people don't seem to factor in is that BV does an incredible job rotating guys especially on the DL and with the young guys we have going in I have no doubt he could move guys into more situational play where it would highlight their strengths and show aspects of their game to allow them to separate. Now injuries are always part of the game but if they're only having to play 30-40 snaps on defense instead of 70-80 that decreases their workload.

OL: Hyatt
Without a doubt he's been the most disappointing of all of the players because his freshman year he dominated and I thought easily he'd be a top 10 pick. But he's shown on a very consistent basis these past 2 years that he struggles in Pass Protection, and he can be blown off the ball when he plays elite competition. He also wasn't helped by KB a couple times where he rolled out of the pocket and Hyatt and other lineman were credited with giving up a sack even though those were directly on Kelly. If Hyatt had had a good year regardless of how we did as a team I'd tell him to go because there are severe questions on the elite OT's coming out this year about Durability and consistency. But with his regression I don't think he'd really even be a top 5 OL taken which would put him as a 2nd-3rd round guy. He just doesn't strike me as a guy that at the combine is really going to wow anyone so his tape is as important as any of the guys leaving. I think he is leaving tons of money on the table and if he comes back he can be a first round pick get more guaranteed money, and have a better opportunity to get a 2nd contract where he really can get paid. He definitely needs to stay and have a good year, I think with the weapons we have coming back and whoever is the QB will set Hyatt up for a great run that will land him as a borderline 1st rounder.

WR: Cain
Cain is one that is intriguing to me because again he had so much potential and his freshman year he looked incredible. Maybe it was the fact that he wasn't the primary receiving option, or all he did was run go routes, or Deshaun throwing the ball to him idk but he's the only one that I would consider leaving and it would really depend on who the QB is next year. If KB is the QB next year and they're going with a more run heavy offense I would tell him to leave, not because KB is a bad QB but simply because of the opportunities that he would get, the down receiver class, and becuase I think he'll test incredibly well. However, I think he could come back next year and have a phenomenal year and go as a first rounder if he works on catching the ball before running, his route running, and again with the plethora of receivers we'd have the coaches could run specific plays to highlight his skills for the NFL.

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Help me understand! Please.

you didn't poke holes in the love theory***

Re: Help me understand! Please.

the only serious and arguable answer is..

Re: the only serious and arguable answer is..

Re: Help me understand! Please.

Thanks

Agree. Add to that, a lot of juniors start in spring of

when the players return to get their degree

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