Re: For the VT lurkers, facts

Tigerman1978

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Sep 28, 2017, 11:16 AM [ in reply to Re: For the VT lurkers, facts ]

If you paid attention to some of those you think are beating their chest, they are talking football and the game. It seems some of those posts though are going undiscussed, probably because it doesn't show to fair well for VT, much like it didn't for AU or Lousiville either.

Example, some of your fans are indeed trying to say that Louisville is a "one man team" and that AU's offense is not good. BUT, there are indeed advanced statistics that are done every year on all 129 FBS teams...statistics that don't just look at totals, don't just look at averages....it's called the S&P+ and the FEI, done by Bill COnnely on footballoutsiders.com. They also do them for the NFL. These statistics are quite advanced...they look at everything, from who a team plays, to when TD's were scored (garbage time vs not, pivotal plays from your own 10 vs a short drive from a short punt vs a short drive from a turnover, ability to finish drives, etc)....it measures teams on efficiency & explosiveness, and removes all the BS that can skew how teams look.

Explanations of it are here:
http://www2.kusports.com/definition/s_and_p/
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/2/9/8001137/college-football-advanced-stats-glossary

You can always view the S&P+ for each team here...
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa2017
It eventually will also look deep into offenses as a whole, defenses as a whole, and the trenches in their own set of stats (the offensive and defensive lines) after week 7. This is a good way at that point to gauge two team's lines' strengths and weaknesses and factors on how they might par against each other, as well as specifics to each offense and defense. Truely, it is the most advanced statistics if you want to see the realities of teams.

So I've posted this a few times, not one response in discussion from a Hokie yet...This is the current S&P+.

In this, you'll see Clemson is higher than VT in nearly all aspects other than special teams.
What you will also notice is that it shows that with the advanced metrics in play, Louisville and Auburn BOTH have more efficient and more explosive offenses...and that WVU (who played VT within 7) does at this time have a more explosive offense than Clemson. You'll also notice though that Clemson does indeed have a #3 level defense, and the best team the Hokies have played (that a few Hokies posting on here keep saying has a "good team") has a #85 defense out of 129 teams. And though Virginia Tech does have a good rated defense as well, it is not better than Auburn's. So this could easily lead to say that likely, Clemson will score more on VT than they did on Auburn, and VT will likely score no where near as much on Clemson as they did on WVU.

And if you look at all factors of that pared up to the actual games, Auburn, with a better offense per the S&P scored a whopping 0 TD's and 2 FG's (117 total yards)...Louisville also with a better offense scored only 2 TD's by the beginning of the 4th quarter before Clemson put in their 3rd string defense, and at that time, held Jackson and Louisville's offense to 157 yards total at that time). BC only scored 7 points, and Kent State only scored a FG. So against Clemson's first and second strings (counting in game subs), no offense (2 even rated decently better than VT's) has yet to score over 14 points. But Clemson scored more than that on Auburn's D, which is better than VT's per the S&P+.

Obviously, anything can happen in any game...but the metrics speak for themselves.

Now, just looking at the basic rankings though, just so you can see it's not just Clemson's defensive line:

Total defense:
Clemson: #3
WVU: #106
ECU: #129
ODU: #97

Rushing defense:
Clemson: #12
WVU: #113
ECU: #123
ODU: #90

Passing Efficiency Defense:
Clemson: #12
WVU: #55
ECU: #129
ODU: #85

Scoring Defense:
Clemson: #3
WVU: #67
ECU: #128
ODU: #87

Team sacks:
Clemson: #2
WVU: T-#105
ECU: T-#112
ODU: #3

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Here's my take without all the numbers. Our Oline is an upgrade from last year. 4 of the 5 are returning starters who have not regressed but improved and we replaced the center who apparently was not NFL material. Check the snap count and see that we have been liberally substituting and moving guys around to get more experience. So we have a better Oline than the one that won the natty. Dline that won the natty is also back. Wilkins playing a more natural position. Ferrell blossomed late but starting where he left off. Also upgrade from last year. We have been using 4 running backs to replace Gallman. It seems to be down to 2 main backs now. Feaster is bigger and faster than Wayne. He is learning more each game. ETN is a freak. Our committee brings more to the table than Wayne. As Feaster and ETN continue to develop they have the ability to surpass Gallman. This is a drop off from last year for now but not worried. Tight end Richards is a better blocker than Leggitt but not quite the receiver. This may be a plus because we are running more. At linebacker we lost the heart and soul in Boulware but he too was rejected by NFL. We have replaced him with a bigger more athletic guy in 57. ODaniel, Joseph and company is not a drop off from the natty LBs. Their play so far shows this. At DB big losses with Jadar and Cordrea. Mullen is proving to be a shut down corner and Muse and Simmons are playing lights out at safety along with the returning starters. No big busts yet against the first team backs. The narrative before the Louisville game was that Lamar was a much improved passer from last year. If it is true, it didn't show against our backs. Our receivers are a bunch of "frisbee kitchen dogs". Nodody can cover Renfro. Cain can outrun single man coverage. RR is all over. We regularly use 9 receivers in a game before we get to garbage time. We will run DBs ragged. We don't have Mike Williams but nobody does. At QB Kelly is running more than DW4 did last year. But DW4 ran for over 1000 yds his sophomore year. Kelly will not take the chances with the ball that DW4 did. He can throw all of the required passes. Check his film. There was a moment on the camera after a bad throw in the Loserville game when they focused on KB. He slowly closed his eyes and took a deep breath. He is learning about composure and forgetting the last play. We will be good at QB.
Do the Hokies have a chance? Sure, but don't expect a drop off from our talent last year that took home the trophy.

For the VT lurkers, facts

Surprisingly, they've never been ranked #1 (AP)***

they do beat in one way, they started in 1892 and we didn't

Re: they do beat in one way, they started in 1892 and we didn't