Re: For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

truetiger1998

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Jul 1, 2020, 11:44 PM

T3Tiger® said:

These are the most recent stats from the DHEC website. If you go to the county and zip code data page, they provide the number of confirmed cases in SC, the number of estimated cases, and the number of possible cases. Then, if you go to the Demographics page, they give the percentage breakdown of both existing cases and deaths by age group.

Based on that data, I calculated the mortality rate for each age group for known, estimated, and possible cases. This assumes that the age distribution for the estimated and possible cases would follow the same distribution as the known cases. There’s really no way to know for sure and the reality is the unknown cases are more likely to be in younger people. So that would further improve the mortality numbers for those age groups.

In any case, the stated mortality rate for the flu is 0.1%. Also, the flu tends to be more serious for younger patients than COVID-19. You can see the rates here and take them for what you will. For me, it reaffirms that we need to protect the older and other vulnerable health populations and at the same time, not have our hair on fire about everyone else. I think we can stay open and possibly have football and other sports if we look at the actual data and take appropriate precautions.

They don’t want to hear it though. It’s a blend of technocrats who at this point can’t admit they blundered the whole thing by grossly exaggerating mortality rate (the two models that the shutdowns and panic were based on were debunked months ago, one by its own creator), media that is sticking fear for clicks and agenda (arguably more for agenda), and people who are willingly going along for said agenda or too prideful to change or to fearful to listen.

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that compares the number of tests given with the number of positive tests. There's no way you can reasonably deny that the more tests you give the more positive results you will have. One reason for this "spike" is simply that we're giving a heckuva lot more tests than we were back in March or April. Shoot, there are lines going around the blocks of places where they are doing free testing.

And why are people getting tested? Because they're symptomatic? No, they'd go to the doctor or MinuteClinic for that. They're going because they're scared and because they're asymptomatic. So as the fear quotient increases (thank you, media and governor), more people who are asymptomatic will get tested, and as more are tested, we'll see more positive test results.

Does that mean that more people are getting it now than were in March or April? Nope. Just means that more are getting tested.

The most important figures are numbers of hospitalizations required and deaths. Hospitalizations are the best number because they're more immediate. People don't die from this overnight. People who are dying now could have contracted this as long ago as April, and definitely June. People don't catch this and die - that's a fact. Last I checked, DHEC showed that our statewide hospital bed utilization was 75% capacity. Of that 75%, approx 12% (going off of memory - could be +/- 2 or 3%) were COVID-19 patients, so we're still seeing very few being hospitalized.

For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

Or graphically.