Re: Does anyone here have ESPN+?

CU Guru [1066]

TigerPulse: 100%

Posts: 384

Joined: 9/27/12

Here it is...

Jan 10, 2020, 11:12 AM

The apex of the college football season is finally upon us. Defending champion Clemson (14-0) will take on Heisman winner Joe Burrow and LSU (14-0) for the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down the game as only they can, offering their top picks and some props to explore, and also a bonus bet for the FCS title game.

Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

CFP National Championship

Clemson Tigers vs. LSU Tigers (-6, 69.5)
(8 p.m. ET Monday on ESPN at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)

Stanford Steve (43-36-3 overall; 4-6 in bowls): There was plenty of talk after the Fiesta Bowl questioning how Clemson would match up with LSU, and plenty of people thought Ohio State matched up better because of the physicality in which they performed versus Clemson in Glendale -- and many thought that was the best way to beat LSU.

I differed on that opinion, and here is why: I think to beat LSU, you must be able to score with them. Led by Trevor Lawrence, Clemson's offense has the goods to do so, especially with the toys he has to play with at running back and wide receiver. I'm just not sure the Tigers from Clemson have enough to limit the Tigers from Baton Rouge enough to win, but I'll take the points with Dabo's boys in a close one.

Pick: Clemson +6 (LSU 36, Clemson 33)

The Bear (42-43-2 overall; 6-9 in bowls): Unlike past years when I felt very confident about my CFP Championship Game ATS pick, this year has me going back and forth. Do I really want to get in front of the LSU train? Or is the train a byproduct of recency bias where LSU played a tapped-out Texas A&M team, a depleted Georgia offense and what was a shell of an Oklahoma team that wouldn't have been close to the playoff in other years. But what if what we saw -- or didn't see -- from Clemson's WRs vs Ohio State, and the number of big plays Clemson allowed to Ohio State were foreshadowing what's to come Monday night?

The line keeps going up, yet it sounds like nearly every sharp/wiseguy is taking Clemson. Are these Tigers a true sharp dog? After all, Dabo Swinney is 8-1 ATS and 7-2 straight up as an underdog. Or is Clemson a "dog with fleas" and backers are overlooking the obvious dominance and home-field edge LSU has here?

There really isn't an outcome that would surprise me. I could see either team winning by double-digits. After all, who thought Clemson would win by four TDs last year? And both teams have been drubbing people all year. And while LSU hasn't covered a couple of obscenely big numbers, Clemson has covered every closing number vs FBS opponents since the one-point win at North Carolina. So again, one can talk themselves onto either side with little effort. But if you just want to make a simple pregame wager, I guess I would say take Clemson +6 based on pure numbers, which I'll outline below, but I don't have the same confidence this year as I did last year when picking Clemson to beat Alabama, or any of the previous championship games. This is as conflicted of a choice I've had since the 2010 game between Auburn and Oregon (and I landed on Oregon that night).

I'd focus on some point-spread props Monday night. Prior to the playoff, most people would have made Clemson a small favorite over LSU. Now Clemson is a six-point dog. Yes, LSU rolled Oklahoma, and Clemson won a physical game with Ohio State, in a game which some people felt the better team that night didn't win. So I can understand a small adjustment, making LSU a 3.5-point favorite or so. But now we're looking at about an 8-point adjustment. And at DraftKings currently, one can lay 1.5 with Clemson and get +175 back. However if the line move is correct, I get the sense LSU will win by double digits. And you can get +140 at DK on LSU -10 and +160 at -11.5. So if you're up for some gambling, play the Clemson -1.5 and LSU -10 pointspread props and if one comes in, you're a winner. Obviously the risk is there to lose both, but in the 21 BCS and CFP Championship Games, 18 have seen the spread not matter - we've had nine underdogs win outright, nine favorites wins and cover, and just three favorites win and fail to cover. However, all three of those have come since 2013 - Florida State over Auburn, 2015 Alabama over Clemson and 2017 Alabama over Georgia. Dogs have covered six straight in the title game since Alabama throttled Notre Dame in 2012.

EDITOR'S PICKS

CFP national championship game: Best bets for Clemson-LSU

Best bets for FCS national championship
I also think there will be points early in this game. Clemson likely will not come out and struggle offensively like it did vs Ohio State. And I would also think LSU will score in the first half. Over 34.5 first half points -122 is available at DK. That's something to consider. And then watch the second half. In the last three CFP Games, Clemson has more QB sacks in the second half (9) than points allowed (7). So Brent Venables has done a good job of making adjustments at halftime.

In first TD market, I'd take a look at Joe Burrow at +1200, as his legs can be a weapon and elude Clemson's pass rush - see what Burrow did to Georgia in the SEC Title Game. WR Tee Higgins didn't have the best of games vs Ohio State. But he can be had at +625 to score the games first TD. Prior to a 4-catch, 33-yard game vs the Buckeyes, Higgins had 10 TD in the previous 5 games and scored in both CFP games last year.

Might take a look at Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 99.5 rush yards. He's been very dangerous as a pass catcher the second half of the season, and I think that might be the preferred method of using the very talented back here.

One would think there would be a long TD scored here. In Clemson's three CFP games with Trevor Lawrence at QB, the Tigers have scored 14 TD (1 came from the defense). Five are greater than 50 yards. LSU had two TD north of 40 yards in the semifinal vs Oklahoma. Not sure what other numbers are out there, but DK has 64.5. I'd probably pass at that number, but if you can find something lower, it could be worth a play.

Pick: play the props

Prop bets
Stanford Steve

LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 99.5 rush yards
Clemson WR Justyn Ross over 69.5 receiving yards
Clemson WR Amari Rodgers over 35.5 yards

The Bear

Clemson -1.5 (+175) with LSU -10.5 (+140) at DraftKings
1st half over 34.5 (-122) at DraftKings
1st TD options: Burrow (+1200), Clemson WR Tee Higgins (+625)
LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 99.5 rush yards

flag link

military_tech

thumb_down

thumb_up

Does anyone here have ESPN+?

That's why I want to read his thots but I'm not paying $5 to