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Replies: 13
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CU Medallion [55393]
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There are some of you guys on here that are pretty good
Aug 25, 2014, 10:11 AM
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with breaking down the stats from our game with the mutts last year with key players, and comparing to what it should be this year with players gone, and players returning and replacing. In other words, break it down by position and see who should win this game on paper and why. I wear perma orange glasses, and I do try and be fair. But I keep seeing us being the better team on paper. Actually I see us winning this game by 10+ with 2 and maybe 3 scores coming in 4th quarter b/c of our experienced defensive depth returning 2 and 3 deep. We to deep, but are we deep enough? TIA
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Legend [16629]
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First, let me say I think we win this game, BUT
Aug 25, 2014, 10:15 AM
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not by 10+. Not in Athens. I see us winning something like 24-21 or the like.
With that said, I think the difference in the game will be our defense clamping down on the UGA passing game and doing just enough to stop Gurley from going nuts, even though he still probably has a great game.
We cannot turn the ball over. I know it's cliche, but that really is the key. A couple of turnovers, and we would be doomed.
Can't wait!!!
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: There are some of you guys on here that are pretty good
Aug 25, 2014, 10:17 AM
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The UGA secondary is their weakest link. If our OLine can give Cole a little time, then Cole should shred their secondary. If that happens - you are spot on.
UGA has a good DLine, so our OLine has to man up in this one. Of course our D has to stop the RUN - or at least slow it down. Our D has to make UGA have a lot of 3rd-and-longs to force UGA to pass. If that happens enough, then CLEMSON wins easily.
That's a lot of 'ifs' - so we wait.
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Amateur [44]
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Re: There are some of you guys on here that are pretty good
Aug 25, 2014, 10:20 AM
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Take off your orange glasses. Vegas doesn't see it the same way you do. And, they are just looking "on paper" So you are wrong on that point. It is almost impossible to break down ones team, because that is the only team you know. You cant objectively determine that your team is better than UGA (on paper) because I would bet you cant name more than 8 players on the UGA squad, therefore, you have no idea if you are better "on paper".
I will just say we are better on paper because people who are paid to look at teams "on paper" have said we are better, through the setting of lines that we are better on paper.
O/U 57.5 so no love for either D on paper.
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Legend [16629]
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Didn't the same morans say y'all were better
Aug 25, 2014, 10:24 AM
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on paper last year?
We remember how that turned out.
Just sayin'.
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CU Medallion [64577]
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Vegas doesn't give a **** which team is "better on paper".
Aug 25, 2014, 10:25 AM
[ in reply to Re: There are some of you guys on here that are pretty good ] |
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The ONLY incentive Vegas has is to minimize payouts. They do that by offsetting each side of the bet against the other. Bookmakers don't have better information than anyone else. They want to take in a mixture of bets at odds that ensure they will make money no matter who wins. Oddsmakers care less about being right then they care about eliminating risk. Odds are designed to put even money on both sides of the bet.
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Oculus Spirit [93661]
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Correct.
Aug 25, 2014, 10:29 AM
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Vegas doesn't make money gambling, they make their money off gamblers.
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Amateur [44]
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Re: Correct.
Aug 25, 2014, 11:00 AM
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"Since 1996 there have been 1,930 teams that have been favored from 3.5 to 7 points. These are teams that are expected to win the game but the game should be close. The last time we tightened up the category the upsets went from every 4.7 games to every 3.8 games. Should we expect 1 in every 2.7 games here? Since 1996, 658 of the 1,930 teams that were underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points have pulled outright upsets and that translates into 1 every 2.9 games or 34.1% of the time." Philsteele.com
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Oculus Spirit [93661]
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Excuse me, mam.
Aug 25, 2014, 11:49 AM
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I was wrong to support the argument that Vegas sets the odds based on looking at the teams and not the money.
I'm so stupid I didn't even recognize your being a girl. Had I know that I wouldn't have gotten involved in the argument.
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Legend [17283]
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110%er [7831]
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CU Medallion [55393]
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Re: There are some of you guys on here that are pretty good
Aug 25, 2014, 12:06 PM
[ in reply to Re: There are some of you guys on here that are pretty good ] |
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Im ALLORANGEALLTHETIME and have been for 52 years. Anything another fan base says means absolutely nothing to me. You could have typed a 10 page SA about what you think about your dogs or our Clemson Tigers. I would come away with what I'm thinking right now, you are trespassing, what you say means nothing. My loyalty and respect is for my fan base only and no others. Allorangeallthetime Clemson Tiger till death!!! No disrespect, but I'm not asking you the enemy for nothing. Well maybe an up to date game play book of your dogs.
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CU Guru [1482]
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Re: There are some of you guys on here that are pretty good
Aug 25, 2014, 12:30 PM
[ in reply to Re: There are some of you guys on here that are pretty good ] |
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> I will just say we are better on paper because people
> who are paid to look at teams "on paper" have said we
> are better, through the setting of lines that we are
> better on paper.
>
Sounds like a pretty good analysis 
So, did you put down some serious cash on Georgia when it was at -8 last week? LOL, as they say.
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Amateur [44]
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Re: There are some of you guys on here that are pretty good
Aug 25, 2014, 1:50 PM
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The numbers are the numbers. When a team enters a game as 3.5 to 7 point Vegas under dog they only win 34.1% of the time. So , yes the Vegas line is a good indicator of who could possibly win the game.
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50
