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Hall of Famer [21614]
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People are underestimating the chances Ohio St gets left out
Nov 30, 2016, 9:43 AM
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Not sure how the experts are missing some pretty glaring realities.
If Clemson, Washington and Penn State win their respective conference championships, I think they all get in with Alabama.
Here's why...
Anyone read the Playoff Selection Committee's criteria?
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must
be considered:
? Championships won
? Strength of schedule
? Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
? Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
*http://d30ratpzqzalg7.cloudfront.net/CD-drupal-cfp-PROD/s3fs-public/CFP%20Selection%20Committee%20Protocol.pdf?tV3FOZ68If3qops3X7XJQFmkEd00PiAY
The shocker will be Penn St. over Ohio St. Not shocking to me, and if you pay attention to the metrics you will see why.
Penn St, if they beat Wisconsin will have 2 wins over top 10 teams. Both of their losses are to top-25 teams. That by itself means very little other than their schedule includes multiple big wins.
Now for the important part.
They would be conference champions. The committee has proven that this one is bigger than people realize already, AND they would have the head-to-head over Ohio State. That is 2 of the 4 core criteria for the committee. And 2 of the most important 3. The remaining most important criteria is an advantage for Ohio State, but not by a mile if Penn State wins against #6 Wisconsin. That would be victories over #2 and #6. So the strength of schedule isn't like Western Michigan, or even Washington.
Advantages for Ohio State... 1-loss, higher SOS, beat Michigan that PSU lost to
Advantages for Penn State... Champs of the best league, Beat Ohio State head-to-head, Won Ohio State's division and conference by beating them on the field.
Nebraska is no longer a big win for OSU as they were kicked out of the top-25 last week. Also if Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma st this weekend, that will remove a top-10 win for Ohio St..
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: People are underestimating the chances Ohio St gets left out
Nov 30, 2016, 9:45 AM
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0% chance Ohio state gets left out
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Legend [15863]
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^^ I agree
Nov 30, 2016, 9:50 AM
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they want someone to lose - or put in the big 10 champ with ohio st.
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Orange Blooded [4423]
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i dont know, he could be right! the committee has proven
Nov 30, 2016, 9:53 AM
[ in reply to Re: People are underestimating the chances Ohio St gets left out ] |
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2 years ago that they dont mind completely changing their rankings on the last weekend. IF penn st. wins they will have the same # of wins as Ohio State (11), they both have top 15 SOS, Penn State will own 2 top 10 wins, and MOST IMPORTANTLY own the 2 criteria that the committee puts first Conference Championship and Head to Head.
There will be a significant amount of pressure for the committee to put PSU in because if they dont, they are setting a precedent that their criteria essentially means nothing.
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Legend [16207]
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: People are underestimating the chances Ohio St gets left out
Nov 30, 2016, 9:49 AM
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And if Washington or we lose Michigan will get in
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Penn St would get in over Michigan by a mile.
Nov 30, 2016, 9:51 AM
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You don't understand the playoff committee at all if you believe that.
Thinking Ohio State gets in is perfectly reasonable, but it's crazy to think the committee would take two teams that didn't even win their division, when they made that huge statement against the Big 12 that first year of the playoffs for conference championships.
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All-In [29036]
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I tend to agree
Nov 30, 2016, 9:49 AM
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It's a different way of thinking with this CFP it seems. We are used to the old poll structure where a team doesn't drop if it doesn't lose. Rarely in the past was there much movement of a team if they didn't play, but I don't think that will necessarily be the case going forward.
I think this group is saying with these polls that "right now, with what has been accomplished at this point, these are the rankings." So no one is getting a bump for winning their conference yet. Or at least, that's what I'm hoping as I like that model much better. If that's not what comes to pass then OSU will actually have had an advantage by not playing this weekend. They would actually be in a better position having lost to PSU then if they had won.
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Orange Blooded [2479]
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PSU has the most legit beef if they win B1G and get left out***
Nov 30, 2016, 9:50 AM
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: PSU has the most legit beef if they win B1G and get left out***
Nov 30, 2016, 9:53 AM
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Not really they have 2 losses. Don't lose 2 games and then they have an arguement.
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Head Coach [753]
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Not sure if you saw the comments from the committee chairman
Nov 30, 2016, 9:51 AM
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He said they all believe the divide between Ohio State and Pedu was wide. Washington /michigan razor thin. Washington should be the most nervous. They need to whip Colorado bigly.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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That was BEFORE championship weekend. You guys are not
Nov 30, 2016, 9:54 AM
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paying attention to their clearly established doctrine. They repeatedly say they do not deal in hypotheticals. They do their rankings up to the current situation. The weight of conference championships, which is proven huge, has not been factored at all yet.
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Head Coach [753]
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Message removed by Author
Nov 30, 2016, 9:55 AM
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Message removed by Author
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Which is before the championship games.***
Nov 30, 2016, 9:55 AM
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: That was BEFORE championship weekend. You guys are not
Nov 30, 2016, 9:56 AM
[ in reply to That was BEFORE championship weekend. You guys are not ] |
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Do you watch or read the committee comments at the end of the rankings? He literally said conference champ means 0 Unless "razor thing margin" between the two teams and the gap between osu and psu is very wide in their eyes. Michigan will be in if Washington loses. No one looses top 4 teams will be in.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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The key word there is "comparable." The committee will
Nov 30, 2016, 9:51 AM
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need to deem that Penn State's entire body of work is comparable to Ohio State's. If they do so, which is possible, PSU will get in. If not, it's OSU.
The thing i don't really like about putting all of the weight on PSU winning the H2H and the conference is that you are devaluing OOC matchups in September and incentivising teams to just schedule more cupcakes in the non-con. If OSU isn't going to get credit for going into Norman and beating the likely Big XII champs, why play that game? If all they need to do is win their conference then they just just schedule a lighter non-con schedule where they can get an extra home game, make more money, and minimize injury risks.
It also further benefits teams that catch lucky breaks with cross-division scheduling. Wisconsin still managed to win their division (because most of it stunk), but they pulled both Michigan AND Ohio State from the east while teams like Minnesota got Maryland and Rutgers. Ohio State had to play at Wisconsin while Penn State got to play bottom feeder Purdue.
I know in this particular instance that PSU happened to win the division because they beat Ohio State, but you could just as easily get a scenario where a team beat the division champ head to head but didnt win the division because they lost to some really good teams from the other division that the division champ never had to play.
That's why i don't like hard rules on this stuff. Leave it open to the committee to take everything on a case by case basis and try to make the best decision.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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That is what it all hinges on... but here is why I think
Nov 30, 2016, 9:57 AM
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they will consider them comparable.
1. Same division and conference. Comparable could mean Western Michigan vs Michigan.
2. Head to head. Easy to compare.
3. SOS rank within 15 of one another if Penn St wins.
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Associate AD [813]
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But the way the committee chair framed it was...
Nov 30, 2016, 9:54 AM
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PSU and OSU are not comparable. Big gap. And so they will not let those metrics tilt the scale. That is why "best 4 teams" instead of "best and most deserving 4 teams" brings too much subjectivity into the mix. IF PSU wins BTCG, it should be them, but they have framed it to protect OSU due to "eye test."
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Associate AD [813]
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110%er [6280]
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Re: People are underestimating the chances Ohio St gets left out
Nov 30, 2016, 9:57 AM
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The criteria is in no order though. They could value Ohio Sts sos way more than the other 3 things. Ohio St would have a better sos and the same number of Ws with one less L. The only way I could think of Penn St jumping them is maybe if they beat Wisconsin by 20+ but then I still do not know. Penn St needs Washington or us to lose and for them to win. Then Michigan would have the head to head though and you could argue for them over Penn St.
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Hall of Famer [22380]
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Had the Committee voted Ohio State number 4 this week
Nov 30, 2016, 9:58 AM
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that would be a possibility. But, by putting them at number 2 this week, they have removed all doubt that they intend to keep OSU in the top 4.
Not even close.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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You are still thinking in the old way. The AP Poll way
Nov 30, 2016, 10:00 AM
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Playoff committee totally flushes out old rankings and they make big changes from week to week, saving the biggest changes for last. Conference champs have not been factored in at all. Without that game, Ohio State is in another league than Penn St. If Penn St. wins it, that dramatically changes everything.
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: You are still thinking in the old way. The AP Poll way
Nov 30, 2016, 10:02 AM
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But for the second week they stated conference champion doesn't mean much.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Find that quote. They never said that. Also...
Nov 30, 2016, 10:03 AM
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You are ignoring their FOUNDING DOCUMENT. They say pretty clearly that conference championships are one of the 4 CORNERSTONES of their selection criteria. They have proven that with action already. Ask the Big 12.
It's all included in this thread above. Read it.
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: Find that quote. They never said that. Also...
Nov 30, 2016, 10:09 AM
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No I am actually reading it exactly like they wrote it, if teams are comparable, closes in margins?
Kirby holcutt on live television has said for two weeks now osu and psu are not comparable and the margin is wide between them; therefor by their doctrine head to head and conference champion will not be used.....
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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You just had a logic problem....
Nov 30, 2016, 10:14 AM
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'Currently' means before the championship game. Without the championship game, it is obviously true that Ohio State and Penn State are not comparable.
Once the championship game occurs, if Penn St. wins, then they would immediately be comparable.
therefor by their doctrine head to head and conference champion will not be used.....
There is absolutely no reason that this is true. There is no connection between your premise and your conclusion at all. All evidence points to the opposite being true.
You are failing to realize that they isolate their opinions to the present. They do not consider the future at all in their rankings. They have said this repeatedly. They proved it for the first playoff selection. Conference championships matter, and there isn't a single quote stating otherwise.
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: You just had a logic problem....
Nov 30, 2016, 10:25 AM
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so you're arguement is that a win against Wisconsin will level them to be comparable with osu and Michigan?
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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It puts them close enough for the committee to go through
Nov 30, 2016, 10:27 AM
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their checkdowns. I see the following as comparable.
Same number of wins. Same division. Both will have top 20 SOS. Head to Head exists.
If Penn State wins I think its a 50/50 chance they get in over Ohio State.
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: It puts them close enough for the committee to go through
Nov 30, 2016, 10:29 AM
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Nah, watching their games they are a joke. The big 10 is a mess, why esp their conference champion means absolutely nothing. The clear best two teams aren't in it.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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That's not how the committee judges things.
Nov 30, 2016, 10:31 AM
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They are focused on resumes 1st. And they have said as clearly as they could, conference championships and head-to-head matter more than the majority of other factors.
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: That's not how the committee judges things.
Nov 30, 2016, 10:33 AM
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Where did they say that? Need a quote or literature in its completion; not just the first half of a sentence
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Re: That's not how the committee judges things.
Nov 30, 2016, 12:24 PM
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When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must
be considered:
? Championships won
? Strength of schedule
? Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
? Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
No other factors (of which there are over a dozen) are listed. This makes it clear that those 4 criteria hold more weight than those not listed, which consist of a majority of possible factors.
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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All of his quotes have nothing to do with the hypothetical
Nov 30, 2016, 10:16 AM
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of Penn St. winning the conference championship.
Why do you think they include that in their top 4 criteria? Just as a joke?
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Associate AD [813]
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Hall of Famer [22380]
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With so few games being played this weekend, there will
Nov 30, 2016, 10:18 AM
[ in reply to You are still thinking in the old way. The AP Poll way ] |
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be no dramatic changes in the rankings. The committee is not going to suddenly NOT like Ohio State and drop them 2 or more spots when Ohio State doesn't even play this weekend.
No particular issue is a GUARANTEE of inclusion in the playoffs. They are simply used to compare teams with similar records. A conference championship is NOT a guarantee of inclusion. It is only one, albeit important, factor in the equation.
One way they can communicate their belief that conference championships are important is to move us to number 2 if we beat Va Tech impressively. It won't effectively change anything, but it will send a message that the committee values conference championships, while not suggesting it is THE MOST important factor.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Again, the old way of thinking. The CFBPSC has said
Nov 30, 2016, 10:22 AM
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that the old way of moving teams up and down based on the last week of play is obsolete.
They reset every week and look at resumes based on the latest data. Penn St with a conference championship and two top 6 wins is a different element, by a huge margin, than what they are currently.
They don't move teams up or down any more.
That's the old way in the polls.
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Hall of Famer [22380]
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Think you are missing the point.
Nov 30, 2016, 10:36 AM
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The additional "data" available after this weekend is minimal. They may do a "reset" every week, but they just won't have enough additional information after already playing 12 games for it to be "a different element by a huge margin than what they are currently."
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Conference championship games mean more than the other
Nov 30, 2016, 12:15 PM
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games according to the committee in its literature and in its precedent. So your statement isn't accurate. 0% of a significant element of their decision (Conference Championships) has been included in their rankings as of yet.
The committee has directly argued with your last statement. They do not see conference championships as minimal. They see them as one of the most important factors.
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110%er [5093]
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CU Medallion [64517]
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No it hasn't...
Nov 30, 2016, 10:28 AM
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Last year, after winning the BIG Championship, the committee still dropped Michigan State to 4th in the final poll and put Oklahoma 3rd so as to avoid Alabama having to play Oklahoma in Dallas which would have effectively been a home game for Oklahoma. Clearly the Committee looks at the match-ups.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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There is no evidence of that whatsoever. Its just conspiracy
Nov 30, 2016, 10:29 AM
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theory.
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CU Medallion [64517]
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Sure there is evidence...
Nov 30, 2016, 10:38 AM
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Alabama played Michigan State rather than Oklahoma in the first round.
At the end of the day, it's irrelevant. The final two teams would have still been the same IMO.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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That's not evidence of your claim. That's just what happened
Nov 30, 2016, 12:12 PM
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Evidence is a clue that causes someone to believe something happened the way it did.
Not an event occurring that would hypothetically fit perfectly with a conspiracy theory.
That's like saying because Trump won, it's evidence he cheated. Evidence would be examples of voter fraud or manipulating the count in some way.
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110%er [5093]
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Re: No it hasn't...
Nov 30, 2016, 10:31 AM
[ in reply to No it hasn't... ] |
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That's a completely different argument that what I was responding to biggie.
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CU Medallion [64517]
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Agreed !!!
Nov 30, 2016, 10:22 AM
[ in reply to Had the Committee voted Ohio State number 4 this week ] |
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If Penn State wins the BIG Championship, I think the committee finds a way to keep Ohio State in.
I don't think Penn State jumps Washington, assuming Washington wins the Pac 12 but Penn State will be part of the New Years Six.
Assuming Bama, Clemson and Washington all win, I think the final four will be Alabama, Clemson (due to the extra game and conference championship), Ohio State and Washington.
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Orange Blooded [3820]
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I hate OSU, but OSU handed PSU their rear-ends
Nov 30, 2016, 10:10 AM
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it was only a fluke play that allowed PSU to win.
But mostly it was playing at home that allowed PSU to win.
People underestimate the vagaries of college scheduling
in that home-and-homes can't be played and thus home field advantage is something
the Committee has to factor in,
and especially as it applies to Divisional Conferences who don't put the highest ranked teams in the Championship Game.
I sure seem to remember a bunch of people crying on here that
we were better than anyone in the Coastal in 2014 and deserved anther shot at FSU in the ACCCG !
Penn State has beaten no one - no one, other than one fluke play.
Plus they have 2 losses.... get over it.
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CU Medallion [60204]
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The mere fact that Penn State may WIN the Big10 Championship
Nov 30, 2016, 10:18 AM
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makes me wonder if that conference is as good as the media is making them out to be.
If Penn State - a scandalous team near death-penalty status a couple years ago - can go 7-1 in their conference ------ how good can that conference possibly be? Worthy of TWO teams in the Final Four?
Something is askew.
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All-In [28193]
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Re: The mere fact that Penn State may WIN the Big10 Championship
Nov 30, 2016, 10:21 AM
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thats my thought - i'm not impressed with any of the big10 teams
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Orange Blooded [3820]
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unfortunately the B1G has much better OOC wins than any one
Nov 30, 2016, 10:24 AM
[ in reply to The mere fact that Penn State may WIN the Big10 Championship ] |
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else - much better - but mostly in part because they played all their key games AT HOME.
Wisky beat LSU at home; Michigan beat Colorado at home; and Penn State's big OOC win was Temple at home.
Of the four top teams in the B1G, only OSU played a big OOC game away from home
and won AT Oklahoma (#9).
No other conference comes close to matching those OOC wins -
but again the big issue was playing AT HOME.
PSU scraped by Temple by 7, and Wisky only beat LSU by 2.
Clemson's win over Auburn is the 2nd best (I believe) AWAY OOC win next to OSU's.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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People who disregard scoreboard in favor of subjectivity are
Nov 30, 2016, 10:19 AM
[ in reply to I hate OSU, but OSU handed PSU their rear-ends ] |
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not really in the same mindset as the selection committee. Radio prognosticators love it... but the selection committee considers all wins to count as legitimate.
And football games are more than one play. Those other 150 plays also contributed to Penn St winning. And we shouldn't count home wins? That's odd.
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Orange Blooded [3820]
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I get where you coming from, but look at the OSU/PSU stats
Nov 30, 2016, 10:27 AM
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- that's not "Eye test" - that's game control.
PSU blocked 2 kicks that day and got pummeled in the stats. They were behind by 14 going into the 4th quarter.
It would not have even been a game had it not been AT PSU.
Much like when PSU went to Michigan and got pummeled.
PSU is an absolute fraud.
If you're going to leave OSU out for PSU,
I'd rather leave them both out in favor of anyone else.
Putting PSU into the playoff is ridiculous.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Re: I get where you coming from, but look at the OSU/PSU stats
Nov 30, 2016, 10:29 AM
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Hate to oversimplify, but it's a sound response...
Scoreboard > Stats.
Do you think anyone on that committee disagrees with that?
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Re: I get where you coming from, but look at the OSU/PSU stats
Nov 30, 2016, 10:30 AM
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If they both had one loss and comparable wins no, I'll give you that.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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They will have the same number of wins. And the same number
Nov 30, 2016, 10:32 AM
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of top-10 wins if Oklahoma loses.
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Orange Blooded [3820]
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OSU beat Oklahoma AT Oklahoma....
Nov 30, 2016, 10:40 AM
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you're ignoring key issues.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Penn St beat OSU and (may) win their division.
Nov 30, 2016, 12:20 PM
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That's more "key" if Penn St ends up beating Wisconsin.
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Orange Blooded [3820]
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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That would be called "inconsistent." Not good.***
Nov 30, 2016, 12:16 PM
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Legend [16714]
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Re: People are underestimating the chances Ohio St gets left out
Nov 30, 2016, 10:25 AM
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You are over estimating.
There are in.
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Hall of Famer [24042]
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What part of Kirby Hocutt saying the CFP Committee doesn't
Nov 30, 2016, 11:11 AM
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think either Penn State OR Wisconson are 'COMPARABLE' to Ohio State (even at the margins, whatever the heck that means) do you not understand?
hth
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Once again, someone doesn't understand how this works.
Nov 30, 2016, 12:18 PM
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That statement applies to the current situation. If Penn St. wins the Big Ten then that situation will be different. They refuse to speak on hypotheticals.
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Legend [16212]
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"Circumstances at the margins" is the key phrase that's
Nov 30, 2016, 11:16 AM
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being overlooked. The committee does not feel OSU is at that margin, they instead feel they are clearly a top 2 team, thus those metrics aren't a factor for them in this instance.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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At this point they are not. They will be if Penn State wins
Nov 30, 2016, 12:17 PM
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the Big Ten.
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CU Guru [1335]
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Re: At this point they are not. They will be if Penn State wins
Nov 30, 2016, 12:37 PM
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They make up the rules as they go . This year winning conf. don't count because OSU wont win .
Every year they pick the agenda . The only reason they formed the committee was to make it look
FAIR .
Do you think Houston would still be in if they were undefeated . ????
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Most people mostly agree with their decisions.
Nov 30, 2016, 12:39 PM
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The best team has won each year so far.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Bump. Looks like more people see the chances now.
Dec 4, 2016, 12:05 AM
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Are Penn State and Ohio State comparable?
Dec 4, 2016, 12:31 AM
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Ohio State 11 wins
Penn State 11 wins
Ohio State plays in Big Ten Eastern Division, played against the other 6 teams and did not win it
Penn State plays in Big Ten Eastern division and played against the other 6 teams and did win it
Ohio State played Penn State and lost
Penn State played Ohio State and won
Ohio State played 2 of the best 2 teams from the Western division and beat them.
Penn State played 2 of the best 3 teams from the Western division and beat them.
Ohio State has a top-20 strength of schedule
Penn State has a top-20 strength of schedule
Ohio State did not play in its own conference championship game nor win it.
Penn State played in its own conference championship game and did win it.
Ohio State beat multiple top ten teams
Penn State beat multiple top ten teams
Ohio State has wins over the current 5, 6 and 9 in the top 25
Penn State has wins over the current 2, 6 and 22 in the top 25
Ohio State has the 2nd best strength of record in the NCAA.
Penn State has the 7th best strength of record in the NCAA.
Yes, Penn State and Ohio State are comparable. Now that we established that... what are the 4 major criteria listed by the Playoff selection committee for comparing comparable teams?
Conference championships
Head to Head
Strength of schedule
Head to head against common opponents
Penn State clearly wins #1
Penn State clearly wins #2
SOR is 2 vs 7
Penn State is 7-1 against teams that Ohio State also played.
Still think OSU is a lock?
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1st Rounder [617]
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Re: Are Penn State and Ohio State comparable?
Dec 4, 2016, 12:38 AM
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Losses.
2 vs 1.
And one was a 39 point loss.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Ok so 2 things vs like 8 for PSU? Doesn't sound good for OSU***
Dec 4, 2016, 12:57 AM
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