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110%er [6575]
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Been listening to XM radio all day...
Dec 8, 2016, 2:32 PM
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Every host thinks that Watson should and will win the Heisman.
It's lookin' good folks.
Inb4 coots say Jackson should still win.
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CU Medallion [60205]
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from ESPN Insider- metrics on the Heisman
Dec 8, 2016, 2:37 PM
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Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Passing stats: 67.6 completion percentage, 3,914 passing yards, 37 passing TDs, 15 interceptions
Rushing stats: 129 rushes, 529 rushing yards, six TDs
Like it or not, team success is a major factor in Heisman voting. Of the five finalists, Watson has the most wins and is the only player on a team headed to the College Football Playoff.
What makes Watson's case stronger, however, is that he performed his best in Clemson's biggest games. In five games against teams that ended the year in the CFP top 25, Watson posted a Total QBR of 83 and averaged 411 total yards per game. In his other eight games, Watson averaged fewer than 300 yards.
We all know the importance of ending the season strong, and Watson has a QBR of 90 and the nation's most QB points added in the months of November and December.
Why Watson might not win: Watson has 15 interceptions, tied for third in the country. That would be the most interceptions by a Heisman-winning QB since Ty Detmer threw 28 in 1990.
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Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Passing stats: 57.6 completion percentage, 3,390 yards, 30 TDs, nine interceptions
Rushing stats: 234 rushes, 1,538 rushing yards, 21 TDs
The Heisman Trophy is a season-long award, and no player has had a greater total impact than Jackson over the course of this season. He has amassed nearly 5,000 total yards and is one of three players in FBS history to pass for 30 touchdowns and run for 20 more. The other two players to accomplish that feat, Tim Tebow and Cam Newton, won the trophy in landslides.
What sets Jackson apart is that he was efficient (third in Total QBR) while amassing those monster numbers. ESPN has a stat called QB points added, which measures the total production of a quarterback compared to what an average quarterback (average equaling a QBR of 50) would be expected to yield, taking into account efficiency, usage and level of competition faced.
It makes sense that quarterbacks who are both efficient and involved in a lot of plays would receive greater consideration for the Heisman Trophy -- and they have. Five of the past seven Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks led the FBS in QB points added prior to bowls, and the other two ranked second. Although Jackson trails Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes in the stat this season, his per-game contributions are better than a number of Heisman winners' in their award-winning seasons.
Why Jackson might not win: This question seemed laughable a few weeks ago, but after a slow month of November that featured two losses and eight turnovers, Jackson might have opened the door for others. Jackson had a Total QBR of 78 in November, which would be the lowest by a Heisman-winning QB since we started tracking the metric in 2004.
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Starter [375]
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I'm listening too - many of them say Watson
Dec 8, 2016, 2:41 PM
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WILL win. I sure hope they are right. I did hear Eric LeGrand say Jackson would win though.
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Scout Team [199]
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Re: Been listening to XM radio all day...
Dec 8, 2016, 2:45 PM
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It's too late for them to talk up Watson now, the votes are in.
Now they are trying to make us think it's close so we watch.
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CU Medallion [56714]
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yep. Mission accomplished, for whatever reason.***
Dec 8, 2016, 2:57 PM
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CU Guru [1849]
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i hope you're right, but every piece of information
Dec 8, 2016, 2:51 PM
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From the 10% that already voted before November, to ESPN still glorifying him heisman up until the Kentucky game, to countesses AP voters (a lot of people who vote for the heisman) downplaying clemsons skills. As someone said earlier, just trying to create a little drama for the viewer. Uninvested fan wouldn't watch otherwise. Remember all the hype for DW4 and Christian MCcaffrey last year? Henry still ran away with the trophy.
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