Re: Bama looks better this year.

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I think their running game will be just as good

Sep 2, 2018, 11:15 AM

Their OL looked slightly shaky at times last night, but Tua has Deshaun Watson level elusiveness in the pocket so Louisville never really affected him with that pressure and Bama still managed to run for 222 yards at 5.3 YPC. That's not elite but it's pretty dang good. And i would be willing to bet a pretty good sum of money that Saban gets that OL playing better as the season progresses. They have a very good OL every year.. I'll believe this year is different when i see it.

And the defense will be fine. They might end up being a tad worse than last year (they were #1 again last year) but Saban fields a top 5 defense every year. Petrino is pretty good at scheming in the passing game and Bama was breaking in a lot of new guys in the secondary last night. Pass averaged 6.6 YPA with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. That's pretty solid against Bama but 6.6 YPA is below average in general. Bama's secondary probably won't be as good as last year's group, but they will definitely improve over the course of the year and you can almost certainly count on them being a very strong unit by playoff time.

Just my opinion but i think you can always count on getting an elite defense and a very, very good running game with Bama. The one thing you also typically count on is average QB play. That's the one thing has changed this year. They no longer have an average QB.. they now have an elite game-breaking QB that was already the Heisman co-favorite going into week 1 despite not even being named the starter. Look for him to be the runaway favorite when the new Heisman odds come out later this week.

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I know it feels like Saban is practically unbeatable in these situations, but i thought i would look it up and see if there's actual substance behind that or if it's more a myth.

Saban is...

12-0 in season openers (typically against pretty solid competition)
10-4 after bye weeks* (3 losses to LSU and 1 at Ole Miss)
6-1 in BCS title games / playoff semifinals
2-2 in other bowl games

30-7 overall which is good for an 81% winning percentage. His overall record at Bama is 133-20 (87%). Granted the level of competition has been tougher in these games so the record is a little skewed, but he's not exactly invincible with time to prepare.

*Interesting that while researching this i noticed that Bama gets a bye week before many of their toughest SEC games every year. Since 2007 they have gotten a bye before the LSU game 9 out of 11 years, and also byes before the Auburn game in 2008, Missouri in 2012 (OK this one doesn't fit the bill), the big A&M game in 2013, and the Ole Miss game in 2014 when Ole Miss was actually good. And of course starting in 2009 they always play an FCS team the week before Auburn essentially giving them a bye before that game as well. That's pretty nice for Bama... and also probably why Saban's record is "only" 10-4 coming off bye weeks since those are typically some of their toughest regular season games of the year.

Bama looks better this year.