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Replies: 24
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All-In [48078]
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Good time to buy? Down 1800 this morn.
Mar 9, 2020, 9:36 AM
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What do you think?
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Oculus Spirit [97676]
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Better wait, trading halted 15 mins.***
Mar 9, 2020, 9:38 AM
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110%er [6101]
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Re: Better wait, trading halted 15 mins.***
Mar 9, 2020, 10:05 AM
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First circuit breaker triggered
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110%er [6101]
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CU Medallion [73569]
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this is such a way over reaction. Crazy how smart people
Mar 9, 2020, 9:40 AM
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can be so dumb.And why you gonna sell now? after all those losses. Unless you really need that money.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: this is such a way over reaction. Crazy how smart people
Mar 9, 2020, 9:43 AM
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Been sidelined in cash for a while, looking for an entry point but as more large events are cancelled in the US it does make it tricky to figure out just how much this will affect the overall economy or possible push the thing in to a recession.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: this is such a way over reaction. Crazy how smart people
Mar 9, 2020, 10:00 AM
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A recession is almost a lock. Also, there will be a lot job loss going on in the not so far future.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: this is such a way over reaction. Crazy how smart people
Mar 9, 2020, 10:04 AM
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Very possible, a lot depends upon how long this virus event closes stuff, limits travel and keeps people in and to what extent the world supply chains remain busted.
Just in time supply chains are totally broken currently, they sounded great as companies did not have to inventory components but now .........
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All-In [48078]
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Re: this is such a way over reaction. Crazy how smart people
Mar 9, 2020, 10:13 AM
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There was a somewhat decent chance it was coming before the virus and oil situation. We already had 1 foot on a banana peel.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: this is such a way over reaction. Crazy how smart people
Mar 9, 2020, 10:20 AM
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Yup, nothing was ever fixed after the Great Recession in truth and was papered over with cheap money.
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Oculus Spirit [97676]
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Smart people eased out several weeks ago.
Mar 9, 2020, 9:48 AM
[ in reply to this is such a way over reaction. Crazy how smart people ] |
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Oil has never dropped 25% overnight. This is caused by Russia and Saudi Arabia. I mean oil demand was down, maybe 10-15% or so from the virus. Ok, bad but no biggie. OPEC meets, cuts production, and probably wouldn't have to cut much because at 10% drop from the virus and China's exit means our shale production was already going to shut down.
But noooo....OPEC had to go full on suicidal and start a price war.
At the end of the day, you can thank Russia and Saudi Arabia. Effers.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: Smart people eased out several weeks ago.
Mar 9, 2020, 9:54 AM
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Both have long been tired of propping up shale producers by cutting their own production. Neighborhod will look much nicer to them once the riffraff is cleared out.
Last time Saudi tried to kill shale they failed in part from a lack of nerve when they had them on the mat and more importantly the shale producers had hedged their oil at much higher prices tham market price and weathered the storm. Not so much this time.
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Lot o points [155706]
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: Eased out? Disagree
Mar 9, 2020, 9:59 AM
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Most trading has been taken over by algorithms and as such swing things harder. Thing is whether this pushes the world closer to a recession as many EU countries were oh so very close already to a technical definition.
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Lot o points [155706]
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Fed will take interest to 0 before that happens.***
Mar 9, 2020, 10:02 AM
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: Fed will take interest to 0 before that happens.***
Mar 9, 2020, 10:05 AM
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FED interest rate cuts are not gonna help with a viral induced market breakdown. Low interest rates do not put people in stores, on production lines etc. Wasted a bullet if a recession comes IMHO.
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Lot o points [155706]
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I don't disagree, but I am saying that a move to zero will
Mar 9, 2020, 10:06 AM
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be your canary in the coalmine for imminent recession.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: I don't disagree, but I am saying that a move to zero will
Mar 9, 2020, 10:08 AM
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Look at the 10 year yields right now and tell me what they are showing. Man it looks grim.
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Lot o points [155706]
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It's ugly, but it's going to be uglier when all these
Mar 9, 2020, 10:21 AM
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bond fund buyers are stuck with crap paper when rates inevitably rise.
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Oculus Spirit [97676]
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There is a recession built into the virus. Just by its very
Mar 9, 2020, 10:43 AM
[ in reply to Re: Fed will take interest to 0 before that happens.*** ] |
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nature. Between what's already happened in China and now the EU, you already have a recession built into that. Even if we stop it here today, and it all disappears.
But the dangerous debt problems that have existed for decades are also exposed now. Recall the fed's repo purchases that just came out of nowhere, for unknown reasons, last September when the repo rate jumped to 10% literally overnight? Then they had to start pumping. They still are. That's indicative of a problem. A big one, that's being (or was being) handled. I'd argue they're holding interests rates down with that pumping.
Read this today:
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ny-fed-boosts-repo-operations-to-ease-money-market-pressures
Bubbles pop for any of a million reasons. A virus. An oil crisis. Bad mortgages. You name it. But once SOMETHING pierces the bubble, all the other crap floods inside. The bigger the bubble, the longer the list of things that can pop it. And they can all pile on at once, which is how crashes happen.
Calculate the yearly interest on $23,000,000,000,000 at 5% instead of 1.75%. Now calculate that at 8%. You can just stop there because 10% or more will scare the crap out of you. Just take the DOMESTIC labor value of just 25% of what we farm off to China, Mexico, Guatemala, the EU, Canada, etc. What if we lose the capacity to rely on THEIR ability to make 100% of what we currently import. So take the quantity of their imports and reduce that by 25%. Add that quantity to domestic production, at DOMESTIC labor prices. What happens? Stuff gets more expensive. Salaries and wages increase.
Point is the biggest danger of the virus is it can impact global trade to a level that will call our debt.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: Good time to buy? Down 1800 this morn.
Mar 9, 2020, 9:40 AM
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IMHO might be a tad soon, I have caught a few falling knives over my investing and they required stitches. Much more cautious now but oil is looking real interesting with USO. Not quite sure on it either because the Saudi's said they intend to pump 2M more barrels per day after the non-agreement with Russia at OPEC+ meeting. Whether they follow it up in reality or it is a massive bluff I do not know but USO is at historic lows right now.
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110%er [9785]
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Anybody want to start a Lunge
Mar 9, 2020, 9:48 AM
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investment club?
We may be able to buy and sell enough in a few years to buy our own Lunge private box to watch feetball games.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: Anybody want to start a Lunge
Mar 9, 2020, 9:56 AM
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I like the way you think.
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Lot o points [155706]
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That would be awesome, and we could t-mail mangers
Mar 9, 2020, 9:57 AM
[ in reply to Anybody want to start a Lunge ] |
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and tell them that we're inviting them and their families to watch the game from the lunge box and then when they show up at the elevator gate the guy tells them they aren't on the list.
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All-In [26968]
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Joined: 7/6/10
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Still haven't noticed anything bad about the economy
Mar 9, 2020, 11:07 AM
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Except I got cheaper gas this weekend than usual. Which...doesn't seem bad...
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Replies: 24
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50
