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Replies: 32
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Legend [17786]
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5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 6, 2018, 10:29 AM
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ESPN’s Football Power Index has released its early projections for the upcoming season.
Here are five teams that are going to disappoint, according to the computer model.
5 Teams That Will Disappoint In 2018
1. West Virginia
The Mountaineers are expected by many to start the year ranked inside the top 15. WVU got both its star quarterback and its star wide receiver back. However, the FPI is not nearly as high on West Virginia as the analysts. The computer model ranks West Virginia as the country’s No. 36 team.
2. South Carolina
The Gamecocks are another trendy darkhorse pick by some analysts. Paul Finebaum, for example, sees South Carolina as a very tough opponent for SEC East division favorite Georgia. The FPI, though, isn’t very high on Will Muschamp’s team. It has South Carolina ranked No. 28.
3. Nebraska
The Huskers enter Year 1 of the Scott Frost era with a lot of optimism – and they should. The first season, though, could be a tough one. Nebraska’s schedule is rough and ESPN’s FPI doesn’t see the Huskers faring that well. It ranks Nebraska No. 50.
4. Florida State
The Seminoles were really young in 2017 and they return a lot of their talent. They could be a popular College Football Playoff pick for some. However, the FPI sees them being more of a top 25 team than a top 10 team. It has FSU ranked No. 18.
5. Michigan
The Wolverines enter the 2018 season with some serious expectations. Michigan should have 5-star quarterback Shea Patterson behind center. This needs to be the year the Wolverines seriously compete for a Big Ten and College Football Playoff berth. A win against Ohio State might be necessary, too. The FPI, though, has Michigan being ranked outside the top 10.
https://thespun.com/news/espn-computer-predicts-5-teams-that-will-disappoint
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All-In [27366]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 6, 2018, 10:31 AM
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Can't argue with any of that.
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CU Guru [1395]
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Okay, but #28 overall puts them like 4th in the SEC
Apr 6, 2018, 10:34 AM
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That conference is garbage. So they'll still have false confidence heading into the valley.
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All-TigerNet [10855]
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Re: Okay, but #28 overall puts them like 4th in the SEC
Apr 6, 2018, 10:40 AM
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4th place is ring worthy in columbia.
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Hall of Famer [21614]
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Can someone explain to me how the FPI is not worthless?***
Apr 6, 2018, 3:01 PM
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Legend [19913]
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Re: Can someone explain to me how the FPI is not worthless?***
Apr 6, 2018, 5:24 PM
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No, but I'll always favor any ranking that makes teams I don't like look bad.
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Hall of Famer [20518]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 6, 2018, 11:50 AM
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I do think FPI - whatever that is, I actually think it's somebody's Magic 8-ball - has it right this year.
I do think Clemson is the team to beat. We're absolutely loaded with returning starters and if our passing game regains its prior lethality I truly do not know how anyone stops us.
Carolina was probably a bottom-of-the-Top-25 team last year and FPI has it right they're probably right about that this year, again. The one caveat is: their OL is terrible. Like, really bad. They lost just two starters - Alan Knott and Cory Helms - off last year's OL but even that's problematic because it locks their one decent OL, Zach Bailey - who was an All-American at guard - into right tackle, where he's just so-so in space. You want Bailey getting under, rooting out, and roller-skating DT's, you don't want him trying to snag ends flying around him on the edge. There was a reason Carolina finished 108th overall at just 337.1ypg and it wasn't because their skill guys were bad; they just couldn't block anybody. Losing TE Hayden Hurst early to the draft doesn't help them much in either department.
Oh, and they also lost eight guys off what was only the 44th-overall-defense anyway. To Muschamp's credit Carolina's D has steadily improved over the last two years but you'd still expect more of it than that...and now it's Complete Rebuild Time because the Champ never rotated his guys and the vast majority of his production now has to be replaced.
So while the SEC East, aside from Georgia, likely hasn't gotten any better this year, neither have the Gamecocks.
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Oculus Spirit [90769]
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^^ Q!
Apr 6, 2018, 12:43 PM
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I wake uP early each morn just hoping you will be throwing out some your astute college football tidbits & thoughts.
TIA & Go TiGERS EveryWhere!
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Hall of Famer [23100]
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Quo is the best, but isn't Q someone else ? LOL
Apr 6, 2018, 5:06 PM
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LOL
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CU Guru [1593]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 6, 2018, 12:54 PM
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The Coots will be a decent team this year and a lot of us Tigers don’t want to admit it.
You see the problem with the Coots is ,being decent and possibly a top 25 team does not add up to the BEST team in the nation.
It’s like us under Tommy we had good teams but FSU usually beat us like a dog.
The Coots May have good years coming but will never stand a chance Vs Clemson.
Bottom line is we are elite only a couple of teams can match our talent and the Coots ain’t one of them.
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Varsity [213]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 6, 2018, 2:22 PM
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I don’t see why people think they will be decent they won nine games last year but played four teams that fired the coach I think it’s florida and Clemson beats them feel good about Texas am and Kentucky and maybe tenn beating them they are not a good team in my opinion any team with a good d beats them
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Freshman [10]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 6, 2018, 4:10 PM
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What?
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Legend [19913]
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110%er [6280]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 6, 2018, 10:34 PM
[ in reply to Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018 ] |
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They have a decent QB and some pretty good WRs. Now their OL needs to improve and their running game but they should win 8 games this year. Most would consider that to be decent. Depends on how well their D can be but it should be pretty decent seeing the Muschamp was a DC. They have top 25 talent so they should be a top 25 team.
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Legend [16186]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 7, 2018, 9:59 AM
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Bentley has been awful playing against Clemson. He has not been competitive. He has not looked athletic. He has looked panic stricken and impotent most snaps. Good QBs make at least a few plays on their own against anyone. Instead of doing that, Bentley tosses pick after pick. That tone setting prayer for a pick six in the opening qtr last year was hilarious.
Bentley is a good QB? Really?
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110%er [6280]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 7, 2018, 11:36 AM
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I said decent QB and your point is when he plays Clemson lmao. Almost every QB looks awful playing our D. Idk why you keep saying good qb. C'mon man.
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Rock Defender [53]
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South Carolina will not be good. Tigernet knows best
Apr 6, 2018, 4:51 PM
[ in reply to Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018 ] |
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They will never win 7 games in a season under Muschamp either.
If they ever do, it's because their schedule is historically terrible.
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Legend [19913]
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Re: South Carolina will not be good. Tigernet knows best
Apr 6, 2018, 5:20 PM
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Didn't they win 8 or 9 last year? And yes, their schedule was a joke.
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Orange Blooded [2926]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 6, 2018, 4:26 PM
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Coots Schedule and lack of Good Teams in the SEC east will give them a Big Head, Pretty muck like last year. This will actually make the Saturday after Thanksgiving even more wonderful with a reality check.
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Legend [16646]
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To Quozzel's point
Apr 6, 2018, 6:03 PM
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Their spring game showed a dynamic offense led by a 'terrible' OLine. The 'terrible' OLine whipped the 'Total Rebuild' defense. Summarizing, there's very little to be excited about down in the state capitol...very little. But, the right 'influences and garnet-colored glasses' may help...some. They should aspire to reach the FPI ranking.
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Legend [17757]
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ESPN is dumb and they hate us***
Apr 6, 2018, 6:27 PM
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110%er [6981]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 6, 2018, 7:09 PM
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Took a look at their schedule and I see them as an eight and four team. Simply because their schedule is garbage. definite losses to Clemson and Georgia, tossup games with Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Kentucky. The other six teams on their schedule will probably have losing seasons. funny thing is they will probably be ranked towards the end of the season before we beat them by 40, and then beat another big 10 team in a bowl to win 9 games, with really no improvement at all over the prior year
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Rock Defender [53]
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I think that qualifies as decent
Apr 6, 2018, 8:20 PM
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Unless top 10 teams are the only decent teams now by Clemson standards
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110%er [6280]
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Re: I think that qualifies as decent
Apr 6, 2018, 10:38 PM
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I agree with you. If the coots can finish in the top 25 again I would say that is more than decent. I thought last year could be a good year for them and they had a solid year. If Muschamp backs it up with a other good year I would be impressed as I did not think he was the man for the job. I would like them to be a top 15 team when we play just because it makes it more sweet imo. I don't want to beat a ###### team I would rather beat good teams.
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Orange Blooded [4754]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 6, 2018, 10:47 PM
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Nothing new here, Coots been disappointing in football for over 120 years......
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Orange Blooded [2420]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 7, 2018, 7:24 AM
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That's easy. The first five teams that lose to USC
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Orange Blooded [3041]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 7, 2018, 7:28 AM
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I don't understand the hype SC is getting. When you look at how they got to 9 wins last year, it was pretty unimpressive. Now people like Finebaum and Booger McFarland think "SC has circuled the Georgia game on their schedule." I'm not even sure what that means but do they think Smart is unaware that's the conference opener?
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110%er [6280]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 7, 2018, 10:05 AM
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Well they only lost to UGA by 14 at UGA last year. Tho it was a dominant performance by UGA on the stat line. It is never easy to beat a top 25-30 team on the road. Now if UGA plays their A game it won't be close but if they make some mistakes, which happens especially early in the season, Usuck has the offensive players to hit some big plays.
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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It's been like that for 2 years now. SC has outperformed
Apr 7, 2018, 11:46 AM
[ in reply to Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018 ] |
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their expected win total by a significant amount the last two years (+1.5 wins last year and +0.7 in 2016). That generally means a team has been unusually lucky winning close games. That's verified by looking at their results... they were 6-1 in 1 score games last season and 4-2 in such games in 2016. Their games have mostly fallen into two categories: close wins and blowout losses. That's generally not a good sign for future success. Most teams do not go 10-3 in 1 score games over a 2 year period, and unless you believe that Muschamp is just some brilliant coach that can outfox everyone in close games (he's not), that kind of luck isn't likely to continue.
Of course they've also benefited from a really down SEC East.
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110%er [6280]
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Re: It's been like that for 2 years now. SC has outperformed
Apr 7, 2018, 11:51 AM
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Was it luck that we went 9-2 in 1 score games the last 2 years? Asking for a friend. TIA.
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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A little bit for sure, but you also have to take into
Apr 9, 2018, 8:54 AM
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consideration that we were 26-3 overall. A team that wins nearly 90% of their games is going to win a high percentage of close games as well. South Carolina was 15-11 overall, but 10-3 in 1 score games. It's not normal to win 77% of your 1 score games while winning less than 58% overall.
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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I agree with pretty much all of that, but i do think
Apr 7, 2018, 11:29 AM
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Nebraska and FSU are wild cards because of the coaching changes. FPI factors several previous seasons worth of results into the rankings so Nebraska will be dragged down by Mike Riley's tenure, and FSU will be hurt a bit by Jimbo's bad season last year. I think FPI also awards coaching stability (or punishes coaching turnover if you want to look at it the other way), but i think both of these programs likely benefit from the change here. Frost should be a big upgrade over Mike Riley, and while I'm not sure you can really say that Taggart is a better overall coach than Jimbo, FSU really, really needed a change. The Jimbo Fischer era at FSU had really just run it's course and i think both parties needed a fresh start.
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Orange Blooded [3521]
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Re: 5 Teams that will Disapoint in 2018
Apr 9, 2018, 11:06 AM
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Just wait till the preseason AP comes out. Both THE OSU & Big Blue will be in the top 6 with PSU in top 10.
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