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All-In [31429]
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"Public polling is voter suppression"
Nov 5, 2020, 7:45 PM
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All-In [34486]
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Dude, this shids gettin weird
Nov 5, 2020, 7:47 PM
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It's like if the directors of Twin Peaks tried to create a series surrounding an election. Everything is just so gothic and quirky
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Heisman Winner [111489]
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Re: Dude, this shids gettin weird
Nov 5, 2020, 7:52 PM
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I see it more like an orange beetle juice.
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All-In [34486]
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Re: Dude, this shids gettin weird
Nov 5, 2020, 7:54 PM
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Heisman Winner [111489]
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Re: Dude, this shids gettin weird
Nov 5, 2020, 8:03 PM
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both are impossible to get rid of.
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Hall of Famer [22384]
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Yes it is. Surreal. Something David Lynch might have
Nov 5, 2020, 8:19 PM
[ in reply to Dude, this shids gettin weird ] |
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come up with. An election "Blue Velvet."
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Yes it is. Surreal. Something David Lynch might have
Nov 5, 2020, 8:21 PM
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Hall of Famer [22384]
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You may want to go over to the Furman Board until you calm
Nov 5, 2020, 8:22 PM
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down.
It's not a good look for you.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: You may want to go over to the Furman Board until you calm
Nov 5, 2020, 8:25 PM
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All-In [34486]
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Heyman, you having problems in your marriage?
Nov 5, 2020, 8:46 PM
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You wanna talk about it?
What's hurting you right now?
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: "Public polling is voter suppression"
Nov 5, 2020, 7:52 PM
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All-In [31429]
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Don't get personal with me chief, it won't go well for you***
Nov 5, 2020, 7:53 PM
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Don't get personal with me chief, it won't go well for you***
Nov 5, 2020, 8:00 PM
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Orange Blooded [2203]
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Re: Don't get personal with me chief, it won't go well for you***
Nov 5, 2020, 8:28 PM
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That was funny I don't care who you are.
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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it's this kind of thing that is exactly why...
Nov 5, 2020, 8:01 PM
[ in reply to Re: "Public polling is voter suppression" ] |
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the division, that wasn't started by Trump, won't end when Trump leaves. All the left-leaning people are enjoying the spectacle right now and enjoying Trump going down in a blaze of glory, but until we acknowledge that are problems are not Trump-induced, we are going to stay bitterly divided.
Trump was an embarrassment tonight. Even if there was massive voter fraud, he still looked ridiculous.
Until people want to quit cheering for their team and look at the big picture, we are in for some real problems moving forward.
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Legend [16240]
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Re: it's this kind of thing that is exactly why...
Nov 5, 2020, 9:02 PM
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I'd say roughly 80% of us agree on 80% of enough to have a healthy filibuster-proof consensus to put our governments to work for us and not use it to put us against each other and muck up the mechanism. Spinning wheels.
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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when the first thing we notice about someone...
Nov 5, 2020, 9:59 PM
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is how we are different, then it's no wonder we don't get along.
I prefer to find common ground and then move out from there.
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Hall of Famer [22939]
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Can someone explain how this is suppression?
Nov 5, 2020, 8:09 PM
[ in reply to Re: "Public polling is voter suppression" ] |
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Did anybody suppress you from voting? Even polls showing 49/47 lead would empower folks to get out and vote even more.
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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I called it extra motivation myself...
Nov 5, 2020, 8:12 PM
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but I think it's perfectly reasonable to think if polls are predicting a 17 point lead for Biden in Wisconsin why they would stay home.
I don't like it used for sour grapes after the fact, but most of these polls in the states are bad wrong.
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Rock Defender [53]
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All-In [29036]
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Wait, hold on
Nov 5, 2020, 8:22 PM
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You can't have this both ways.
You can't spend months running up to the election trying to make it harder for folks to vote and then throw out "especially if voting might be difficult for them." The cognitive dissonance of that staggers me.
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All-In [31887]
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Lot o points [155750]
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It’s about the same, suppression-wise, as robocalls
Nov 5, 2020, 8:25 PM
[ in reply to Can someone explain how this is suppression? ] |
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Telling people to remember to vote on Wednesday, Nov 4th.
Might not meet the exact definition of suppression, but both serve to keep people from showing up and voting for a given candidate on the correct day, thus serving to suppress turnout.
Similarly, maybe both are accidental, maybe both are not.
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All-In [29036]
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Wait
Nov 5, 2020, 8:29 PM
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You are suggesting that a robocall telling folks to vote on the wrong date was potentially accidental?
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Lot o points [155750]
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Was I too subtle?
Nov 5, 2020, 8:39 PM
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Maybe the robocaller really thought that was the Election Day.
Maybe a professional pollster really thought Biden was up 17% in Wisconsin.
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All-In [29036]
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The poll certainly proved to be incorrect
Nov 5, 2020, 8:43 PM
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However, we may disagree on that necessarily be due to malice and not incompetence.
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All-In [34102]
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Re: The poll certainly proved to be incorrect
Nov 5, 2020, 8:47 PM
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Or maybe the poll was accurate and polls aren't the election.
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All-In [26968]
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Yes.
Nov 5, 2020, 8:51 PM
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It's not that the pollsters are lying or something about how people responded. It's the the response they are getting is not representative of what people will do in the actual voting booth. That's what I think, anyway.
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Lot o points [155750]
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So, is there really any usefulness or demand for an
Nov 5, 2020, 9:26 PM
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industry that makes predictions based on responses of wholly unknown honesty or validity? I think we used to call that fortune telling.
If nothing else it seems like information that's far too factually volatile to parade around on the front page and have cited ad nauseum by mainstream news sources.
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All-In [29036]
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I should clarify
Nov 5, 2020, 8:53 PM
[ in reply to Re: The poll certainly proved to be incorrect ] |
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The poll was not accurate in what it was trying to determine. But that is often a methodological issue and can be influenced by things well out of the control of the folks carrying out the polls. The idea is to then post-mortem those polls and try to learn things to make future polls more accurate.
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All-In [26968]
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It's got to be a difficult and evolving industry...
Nov 5, 2020, 8:57 PM
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I mean, in a day when most people just have cell phones, and screen every call, how do you really get a good random sample? I think it's an interesting subject.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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this is an interesting idea...
Nov 5, 2020, 8:59 PM
[ in reply to Re: The poll certainly proved to be incorrect ] |
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I understand that there is a reason we cast the votes, but shouldn't the model even be close to what it's representing? 15 and 16 point swing are really, really bad. And I understand that one is an outlier, but why are so many of the other states so off?
Maybe I don't understand why we have polls, what they are supposed to indicate, and how they are used.
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All-In [26968]
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The polls we see are for informational and entertainment
Nov 5, 2020, 9:08 PM
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purposes.
The polls we don't see are absolutely critical to campaigns, to make decisions on how to conduct those campaigns.
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Lot o points [155750]
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Weird, don't remember any major news outlets putting
Nov 5, 2020, 9:12 PM
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their polls in the opinion or entertainment sections.
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All-In [26968]
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Well, of course not. (I didn't say opinion, by the way)
Nov 5, 2020, 9:14 PM
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I view all news media as a form of entertainment. A little more healthy form of entertainment than MTV, mind you, but entertainment nonetheless.
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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All-In [26968]
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Eh, I think that's probably an overreaction.
Nov 5, 2020, 9:29 PM
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As long as people want polls, they'll have work. I don't get a sense that polls are not wanted. Maybe not respected by some, but those people still like to look at them and talk about them, that's for sure.
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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the polls are actually so that pollsters can get work...
Nov 5, 2020, 9:18 PM
[ in reply to The polls we see are for informational and entertainment ] |
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the rest of the year, based on their accuracy actually. So they are trying to be correct not entertaining.
My post above was not questioning intent, it was a response to spooneye's post.
To pretend like they don't really mean anything is not correct.
We have posters constantly using polls on here to mock other posters, so we can't really dismiss them when they are pure garbage after the fact.
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All-In [26968]
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I'm sure that's true...
Nov 5, 2020, 9:26 PM
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I guess I was looking at it more from our perspective than theirs. My overall point is that while for us, the consumers of these public polls, they are just for information or entertainment (I'll stick with that word...I think we honestly do gain amusement from them), the consumers of internal campaign polling have much more stake in them, and therefore they will continue to be used extensively.
It was intended to be an answer to your question of why they are used.
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Lot o points [155750]
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There's a reason you keep describing polls as entertaining
Nov 5, 2020, 9:34 PM
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primarily because you also used to keep an elaborate spreadsheet with a custom algorithm to rank football and basketball teams each season, because you thought it was "fun".
One man's drudgery is another man's delight!
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All-In [26968]
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That's a big touche right thar.***
Nov 5, 2020, 9:35 PM
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All-In [31429]
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Re: There's a reason you keep describing polls as entertaining
Nov 5, 2020, 9:38 PM
[ in reply to There's a reason you keep describing polls as entertaining ] |
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Out of curiosity, did anyone ever cross-reference the Prod Rankings against the spread? Straight up? I feel like we might all be missing out on a chance to beat the books.
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Lot o points [155750]
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LOL....what kind of Inception level 3 stuff you pullin?
Nov 5, 2020, 9:10 PM
[ in reply to Re: The poll certainly proved to be incorrect ] |
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That's like my high schooler saying maybe their answers on the test they flunked were correct and their answers aren't the test key.
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All-In [34102]
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Re: LOL....what kind of Inception level 3 stuff you pullin?
Nov 5, 2020, 10:00 PM
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No, it's like your high schooler getting a great score on the practice test and the C on the actual test. It doesn't mean the practice test was lying. It's just not the exact same test.
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Lot o points [155750]
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There were many, many, many polls that were way off.
Nov 5, 2020, 8:49 PM
[ in reply to The poll certainly proved to be incorrect ] |
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No doubt some were just bad at their job, but you’re an even keeled guy, what is it about the polling industry that makes you so generous with your trust?
I hope I’m regarded as even-keeled as well, and it seems like it almost takes willing naïveté to see that much smoke and assume there’s not even a chance of a fire.
I’m not saying the fix was in, but I have no idea how red flags don’t abound unless you don’t want them to.
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All-In [29036]
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The only thing I take away for sure
Nov 5, 2020, 8:59 PM
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Is that polls during this election cycle proved to be inaccurate. I can picture a myriad of reason for this and see no reason to ascribe malice. It isn't the "benefit of the doubt", but rather the simple insanity surrounding all of this election. I imagine it was nearly impossible to try and draw on trends and lessons learned from previous elections when this election contained such strange and disparate fervors on both sides.
Add to that the outspoken distrust and disdain of the media and anyone associated with it propagated by the President and parroted by his supporters and I can see that making it incredibly difficult to accurately model an election based on poll responses.
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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I don't think people needed Trump...
Nov 5, 2020, 9:02 PM
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to create distrust in the media. All I have to do is read it, listen to it, or watch it.
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All-In [26968]
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It doesn't have to be either.
Nov 5, 2020, 8:49 PM
[ in reply to The poll certainly proved to be incorrect ] |
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I think it's a Trump phenomenon, personally. I've heard it myself from my friends and family...they have an intentional aversion to polls, because they feel aggrieved by them. Like, if someone tried to poll them, they would intentionally seek to obfuscate it. So I think it's likely hard to get a good poll in this climate.
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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Your family uses big words when y'all talk politics***
Nov 5, 2020, 9:04 PM
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Lot o points [155750]
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Yes, but might thy family be so predisposed to prevaricate
Nov 5, 2020, 9:16 PM
[ in reply to It doesn't have to be either. ] |
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were they not ecumenically inclined to vacillate on the dubiousness of secular prognostications?
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All-In [26968]
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No.***
Nov 5, 2020, 9:21 PM
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All-In [31429]
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Lot o points [155750]
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altitudinous digital quintet, sir.***
Nov 5, 2020, 9:28 PM
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Rock Defender [53]
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: It’s about the same, suppression-wise, as robocalls
Nov 5, 2020, 9:24 PM
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BOY, I hope someone out there is keeping a running list of all of the reasons why the Repugs have lost the Presidency. Every time I log on here there are one or two more.
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