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Topic: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...
Replies: 33   Last Post: Sep 14, 2018 12:20 PM by: Lakedude
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Replies: 33  

Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...

[7]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:04 AM
 

Sure there will be millions of damage, but not Katrina/Harvey/Sandy type damage that they were all predicting.

They're getting good at predicting where the hurricanes go, but not at the increases and decreases in intensity. Harvey was the opposite. No one forecasted the utter devastation that storm caused.

This has become a ratings game, which is why people in the coastal areas are cynical about the constant predictions of doom.

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Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...

[8]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:07 AM
 

Weather channels blow harder than the hurricanes .

2018 white level member

DB23


Yes, but government is just as bad...

[2]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:13 AM
 

From the Fed level all the way down to the local level. It's like they get their jollies in over-hyping these things.

I know they're in a tough spot. I just think we could get better predictions if the TV stations and politicians would not get so involved.

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Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:52 AM
 

Not for the local schrubbery. It's been a disaster for that.

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Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...

[1]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:09 AM
 

...and still strongest Atlantic hurricane to make landfall north of Florida ?

Hugo .

2018 white level member

DB23


This is nothing compared to Hugo


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:45 AM
 

Wind pressures from 140 mph wind and twice as much as wind pressures from a 100 mph wind.

Although most of the monetary damage is from flooding. Your house is still standing, but it is destroyed.

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So true...***


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:09 AM
 




Re: So true...***

[6]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:17 AM
 

It is only over hyped to those that don't live in the affected areas. Living through these things is very difficult no matter the intensity. No power 24/7 for weeks is no picnic. If you have never experienced it, you just don't know.

2018 purple level member

It's not 1989 anymore...


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:24 AM
 

nobody will be without power for "weeks" due to Florence.

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Still need to see how much water damage..........

[1]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:17 AM
 

happens - do agree that it's not the wind storm they predicted.


Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...

[2]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:20 AM
 

Hurricane Matthew flooded 45,000 homes in NC a couple years ago. I am betting this one will be much worse and will destroy coastal cities. 30 plus inches of rain and and the forecast is $130 billion in damage.

I guess that record breaking damage total doesn't look bad to those sitting high and dry before the storm comes inland.

2018 white level member

Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:22 AM
 

That's why I never leave. Last year I went 8 days without electricity and it sucked. I wish I had left.

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Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...

[1]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:29 AM
 

Carlsbad® said:

That's why I never leave. Last year I went 8 days without electricity and it sucked. I wish I had left.



This is why we left. Why stick around for no power for a week or so....95 degrees and 110% humidity...mosquitos. Plus we have 3 small kids. I'd rather be safe inland with power to watch the games! :)

We only have 1 tree down in our yard per my neighbor. A friend that lives 1/2 mile down the road had 6 large trees uproot during one gust, one of which fell on their house. So yes, the carnage is not as bad as predicted (Thank God/Prayer), but still will be a lot of damage to personal property . Water intrusion sucks.


Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:49 AM
 

Yep it was the first time I ever had to deal with stuff when they hyped it up. It's always been nothing. I regretted staying last year. It sucked.

2018 white level member

Same as with snow and presidential elections..


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:34 AM
 

They'll build up the snow totals then walk them back as the snow gets closer. In the presidential election they always forecast a 5-10% victory for one candidate then move it closer to reality right before the election. Both, IMO are to keep up perception and interest.

However, in this cae I am glad Florence is a dud.

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"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car."

"I don't suffer from insanity. I enjoy every minute of it."


Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...

[1]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 10:43 AM
 

I'm thankful that the storm has decreased in wind speed. The water will cause more damage now.
But, what if the hurricane had stayed at Cat 4 or even increased to Cat 5? You can't evacuate large amounts of people inland overnight.

2018 white level member

Any place that gets 2-4 Feet of Rain that is located


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:16 AM
 

Near Rivers and Inlets would not call it a Dud! People in New Bern, NC were rescued from their roofs last night. However, being close to the Neuse River and with the Forecasts' of the last several days, I critically question the Intelligence and Judgement of these people for not leaving!


No question that the Wilmington region.....


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:19 AM
 

is getting hammered - but is looking like Myrtle Beach down to Georgetown may escape the worst.


Trump talked to God and told him to dial it down. #MAGA

[2]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:07 AM
 

Maybe prayers helped?

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They can track, but they can't predict

[3]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:12 AM
 

Same with any weather system, really. I used to live in SW Florida and stayed through several. Most of the time, they weren't as bad as forecasted, but we had one (Charlie, maybe?) that went from a 3 to a 5 about 24 hours before landfall. Thankfully it dropped down to a 4 or so when it hit, but still, it was pretty bad. With that short notice, there's not good time to evacuate. I would've ridden it out but had plans that took our family out of town anyway, and I'm glad!

You just never know. Any of us who have lived on or near the coast and have experienced multiple of these first-hand know that you prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Roads get clogged really fast. Gas stations run out really fast. If you wait too late, you're potentially screwed. Better to head out and wish you hadn't than stay and wish you'd split.

I think the Gulf storms may be a little easier to predict because it's a warmer body of water than the Atlantic, but the Atlantic can vary a lot more in water temp which can influence the strength of the storm, which is what appears to have happened here.

I had plans to go out of town with my kids on Sunday but chose to cancel them. We could probably get to where we were going safely, but with the potential for wind & rain and stupid drivers, I try to err on the side of caution. Now we're planning on watching some disaster movies :)


predicting?

[2]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:14 AM
 

look...

I'm a member of iptay, I buy season tickets. .No1 is more eager to watch clemson football games than I am. however, it is just football.. I can choose to go or not, I am not responsible for any 1s life but my own.

These experts you complain about know they can't predict these things. ...they know it is a guess. we know it also, but we still rely on them. they are the experts. their guess is better than ours


in your own example they didn't expect Harvey to be as bad as it was and alot of tragedy could have been avoided...if....they treated it like they are treating flo.

err on the side of caution is what I say.

it is easy to criticize and complain in hindsight but.... if you actually had the safety of millions in your hand, I think you would play it safe as well.


this doesn't excuse the media for instigating panic. I'm just talking about the people who make the decisions to evacuate and move resources.


Re: predicting?

[1]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:16 AM
 

My house is on the waterway in Little River.

It looks like it should pass directly over my house sometime today or tonight.

2018 orange level member

But after Katrina (especially).........


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:17 AM
 

the government's not going to take any chances - they don't want to be criticized for lack of support.


Honestly, it's always better to forecast and prepare for the

[2]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:21 AM
 

worst-case scenario that is possible. Even if there's say only a 20% chance that the hurricane is a Category 4 or 5 by the time it hits, you still have to be ready for that.

You have to prepare before the storm hits. Once it occurs, there's no easy way to evacuate thousands and thousands of people. There's no easy way to get food and water and other supplies to people stranded. Being unprepared for the worst-case scenario has the potential to literally leave thousands of people dead for no good reason.

It's all a percentage game, and I honestly think it would be incredibly irresponsible for the meteorologists or government officials to prepare for what is the most likely scenario rather than the worst-case scenario. The last thing you want to do is leave people with a sense of safety when dangerous conditions could potentially occur, even if they're unlikely.

The problem is though that eventually people are going to lose trust in forecasts and become skeptical when major events are imminent. Again, it's all percentages and probability models. The best we can hope for is constant updates, as the range of outcomes decreases as the event nears and begins to affect the area.


you pretty much nailed it. Hurricanes are very unpredictable***


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:56 AM
 



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Re: the evacuation alone is an economic disaster for many

[1]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:26 AM
 

While i agree that many South Carolinians cannot afford the governor "saving their lives" by calling for their mandatory evacuation, it is too soon to call this event a dud.

Remember that ALL hype is designed to reach a specific target audience, rarely the world at large. The people who could still pay the ultimate price for refusing to listen would never call FLO a DUD. The government's job is unlike any other--they have to pretend they have an absolute mandate to fulfill their bureaucratically-appointed tasks and that expense is not a consideration.

While you and i might suggest, but never compel, middle and lower class taxpaying, hard-working citizens to pack their cars, kids, pets, grandparents and precious possessions (I do hope you took anything that scavengers or burglars would want) and leave home for 4-6 days to avoid some wind, rain and some flooding, the governors have no problem tasking law enforcement to do it. How many of us can take 4-6 days for a no-fun impromptu vacation, stuck in motels that don't like pets with sucky cable and people next door having a hurricane party and having to make sure no one breaks into your car. Most of us would be struggling just to make up the lost wages from the time off, let alone motel bills, food, travel expenses, and in some cases damage to vehicles (I mention this because i passed some out-of-staters in a wreck on I-20 in GA). Unless the disaster is so catastrophic that creditors start giving out Florence-chits, like some did after Hugo, try telling your credit card company next month you can't pay your bill because the hurricane made you take an unwanted vacation. They won't want to hear it. The evacuation alone is an economic disaster for many people.

But if anyone in low-lying areas stayed behind, they could still pay a far worse price. This blow ain't done yet. And the ones who suffer real damage will be cleaning up a mess for a long time.


The TV and media DEFINITELY milk these things for ratings

[1]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:31 AM
 

Just look at all the adjectives they use in the headlines - Harrowing, Catastrophic, Most Destructive, Most Powerful, etc. It's just as much - if not more - about viewers and clicks than it is about getting it right. But - that's the way it goes.

And the gov't - elected officials in particular - want to look strong and in command. Nobody wants to risk being made out like Bush after Katrina (when in fact the federal gov't responded well, it was the city and state that dropped the ball). This is their chance to get lots of visibility and show how great a leader they are and how much they care about us little people.

But hey - the biggest positive of all this overhype - the sign-language interpreters for the state get on TV daily for about a week! This is their time to shine!


If they would add the words, "could be" instead of "will"

[1]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:57 AM
 

then people might not think they are crying wolf

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Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:35 AM
 

Clearly the media is entertainment rather than news. Their constant attempts to oneup each other makes the suspect to useless rhetoric.

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Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...

[4]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:40 AM
 

I personally like the black trash bag pants they are required to wear that are extra shiny and flappy to give the effect that its worse than it is.

Surf was good though!








My power went out a couple hours ago and will be

[3]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:37 AM
 

out for a few days I'm sure. That will be it, maybe a few trees down, but Matthew got most of the weak ones already. Generator was on the front porch ready. Drop cords were all ready. Internet might stay up, but I doubt it. Coffee pot and refrig are running.

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Keep the beer cold and the coffee hot and things are


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 12:20 PM
 

livable!


Nothing like trying to get credit for calling something that will

[1]
Posted: Sep 14, 2018 11:40 AM
 

"only" affect millions of people still


Re: Pretty clear that this hurricane is a dud...


Posted: Sep 14, 2018 12:18 PM
 

For those of us that dealt with the aftermath of Hurricane Floyd this storm is pounding the same area with the torrential rains. I went down to provide aid to those in Wallace County that suffered the 500 year floods from Floyd with 70% of the county under water. It took years to recover. Hundreds of people lost their homes with no flood insurance because it was not required.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd

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