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Rock Defender [53]
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IHME model down to 60k now, another 25% drop
Apr 9, 2020, 12:35 PM
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Oculus Spirit [93668]
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Re: IHME model down to 60k now, another 25% drop
Apr 9, 2020, 12:43 PM
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Some say the mitigation was figured into the original projections.
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All-In [34587]
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It was***
Apr 9, 2020, 12:59 PM
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Legend [15749]
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Was there ever a projection published of what would happen if we DIDN’T
Apr 10, 2020, 10:55 AM
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enact all of the social distancing measures?
What did BAU look like?
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Oculus Spirit [93668]
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Re: Was there ever a projection published of what would happen if we DIDN’T
Apr 10, 2020, 1:41 PM
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If I'm remembering correctly that number was what Trump was talking about when he said '500K could die.' I also think that's what set Fauci/NIH and the CDC on fire.
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Rock Defender [53]
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All-In [34587]
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Shut it all down!!!***
Apr 9, 2020, 12:59 PM
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CU Medallion [73569]
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Wonder if Cuomo is gonna apologize to Trump
Apr 9, 2020, 1:02 PM
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for his rants on beds and ventilators saying he wasnt provided enough....based on those ridiculous projections.
Oh and the media too saying trump is gonna kill nyers for not providing that many.
ya, probably not
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All-In [26968]
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Wait, why wouldn't he act based on the projections
Apr 9, 2020, 1:03 PM
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that were available at the time? Are suggesting he should have known or assumed that the situation would improve, and acted based on that?
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CU Medallion [73569]
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he said he needed 60k and trump only gave him 10k
Apr 9, 2020, 1:07 PM
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and he went on a rant. These new models are saying its more like 5-6k.
What made him seem like a prick is he wanted all the supply which would've screwed other parts of the country. As the President, he's the President of the entire country, not NY. He has to disperse what they have to other parts of the country.
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All-In [26968]
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OK, he probably thought he needed 60K at the time
Apr 9, 2020, 1:09 PM
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If I were governor, and I thought I needed that many, you better bet I'd ask for that many.
I don't know about ranting...but I'm against any disrespectful talk from this or any other government leader.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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he talks all the time to the Presdent. Probably daily
Apr 9, 2020, 1:17 PM
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he went on tv and was a total #### about it. He wasn't even close to running out at the time. He wanted all the stockpile for himself and was a ####. All he had to do was have a private conservation, not be a #### on tv.
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All-In [26968]
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Like I said, I am against anyone being disrespectful
Apr 9, 2020, 1:20 PM
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to another person in public comments. I was responding to the notion that he was wrong to ask for more ventilators, which I thought was your original assertion.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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no, my initial post was on his rants on asking for more
Apr 9, 2020, 1:26 PM
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than was given to him. I dont mind asking for more. Thats his job to look out for NY.
It was him being a prick on national tv
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All-In [26968]
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Yes, you are right.***
Apr 9, 2020, 1:27 PM
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Heisman Winner [111584]
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lol
Apr 10, 2020, 1:41 PM
[ in reply to no, my initial post was on his rants on asking for more ] |
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First off, Trump Lied and said Cuomo was hiding ventilators in storage.
But please please provide a video link of the NY governor being a Pri to trump on national TV, I would love to see this so we can all take part in this alternative universe you live in.
And no, I am not talking an op ed, or a heavily redacted quote. I want to see the actual video. If it is as bad as you say, then it should be plastered all over youtube.
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Heisman Winner [111584]
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Re: lol
Apr 10, 2020, 1:50 PM
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xtiger
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Rock Defender [53]
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This is the video
Apr 10, 2020, 1:57 PM
[ in reply to lol ] |
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Oculus Spirit [93668]
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Just to be fair with Cuomo...
Apr 10, 2020, 4:45 PM
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He barely misspoke, Trump sent him 4000 ventilators, not 400. His math was right according to the actual number NY got from the feds.
That being said, Cuomo is a liberal idiot. He was warned about lack of ventilators yet he spent 750 million taxpayers' dollar to build a solar panel factory which is now valued around $8 million. AOC is delighted.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Yeah I'm just going by what he said in the video
Apr 10, 2020, 4:48 PM
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All-In [42167]
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You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 9, 2020, 1:04 PM
[ in reply to Wonder if Cuomo is gonna apologize to Trump ] |
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But why on earth is anyone going to act like this is some kind of Trump victory?
If this projection holds, that's still 60,000 dead Americans.
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All-In [26968]
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Why would anyone try to frame this as a
Apr 9, 2020, 1:06 PM
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"Trump victory" or "Trump defeat". Who cares? We're talking about people's lives.
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All-In [42167]
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Exactly.
Apr 9, 2020, 1:09 PM
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I hope this keeps getting better, but right now, this is still very bad and no one needs to start tallying points.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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All-In [42167]
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Let me get this right...
Apr 9, 2020, 1:10 PM
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He's a d o u c h e because he demanded more equipment based on earlier, more dire (holla at ya, Obed) projections?
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CU Medallion [73569]
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no, b/c he was a ######## about it
Apr 9, 2020, 1:15 PM
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he got 10k. Was a #### about it. Trump said we have to disperse them. Obviously that wasn't good enough for ######## and went on rants. Looks like Trump was right. ######## who was a ########, was wrong.
And is he going to publicly apologize for him being a ######## publicly?
didnt think so
Is them media going to apologize for saying idiot Trump is going to kill people?
probably not
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All-In [42167]
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CU Medallion [73569]
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idk, ive seen 2 of them. probably one of them***
Apr 9, 2020, 1:20 PM
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Rock Defender [53]
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All-In [42167]
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 9, 2020, 1:16 PM
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It's still a loss all around. But definitely a testament to the work of all those healthcare workers and other Americans who fought to keep this under control.
It will not be a victory for Trump. As we have already established, he contributed to this problem from the beginning. Some of those governors as well.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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lol, ya no***
Apr 9, 2020, 1:27 PM
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All-TigerNet [14470]
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 9, 2020, 1:30 PM
[ in reply to Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve... ] |
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User Logo
Catahoula
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Posted: Apr 9, 2020 1:16 PM
Reply
It's still a loss all around. But definitely a testament to the work of all those healthcare workers and other Americans who fought to keep this under control.
It will not be a victory for Trump. As we have already established, he contributed to this problem from the beginning. Some of those governors as well.
LOL YOU SNOWFLAKES WILL SEE IN NOVEMBER WHO GETS CREDIT WHEN HE WINS PERHAPS THE GREATEST LANDSLIDE IN HISTORY.
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All-In [42167]
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YES I GOT AN ALL CAPS DERO POST!!!1!!
Apr 9, 2020, 1:58 PM
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I WIN TIGERNET TODAY.
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Rock Defender [53]
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All-In [42167]
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 9, 2020, 1:57 PM
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I've already given him credit in past posts for some of the things he's done during this crisis.
The mistakes far outweigh the good, and this was one area where we couldn't afford that. Thousands will die, and probably millions will face extreme economic hardship. He has to own that.
Don't worry, I place plenty of blame on Congressional leaders as well, including the Dems.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 9, 2020, 2:05 PM
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All-In [42167]
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 9, 2020, 3:00 PM
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That analogy doesn't work.
He has to own it because he had the opportunity to make moves and take it seriously on a nationwide scale much earlier than he did. And he always wants to be the main man in charge--unless, of course, it's something like this. Then he wants to blame the states.
A true leader takes responsibility during hard times. Always.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 9, 2020, 3:09 PM
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All-In [42167]
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 10, 2020, 11:38 AM
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1. I've already answered this question for you and others in other threads. I'm not going to keep retyping it.
2. Where did I ask him to be a dictator? Mobilizing our federal government sooner to fight this disease doesn't require authoritarianism.
3. I didn't say we had to do that. Clearly now we need a plan. I don't really put a lack of that plan on Trump. I do hold him responsible for cutting that CDC pandemic team a couple of years ago.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 10, 2020, 11:59 AM
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All-In [42167]
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 10, 2020, 4:31 PM
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No, I said I'm not going to keep retyping it out. I've already done that multiple times, and I believe I did it in response to you earlier this week.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: You know, it's great if these projections improve...
Apr 10, 2020, 4:38 PM
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Rock Defender [53]
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Oculus Spirit [97719]
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One thing that bugs me about that site, and model
Apr 9, 2020, 1:02 PM
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There is no way by July we need zero hospital beds, ICU beds, or ventilators. This isn't just going to go away to zero. Even with social distancing in place.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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these models have been wrong at every turn. Wonder how those
Apr 9, 2020, 1:03 PM
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GW models are holding up 
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Oculus Spirit [97719]
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Gave Watthews?***
Apr 9, 2020, 1:05 PM
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All-In [26968]
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CU Medallion [73569]
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well, they initially said like 5 million dead in US or
Apr 9, 2020, 1:12 PM
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something. I'm sure the number just didnt change. I'm sure they changed their formula's. The point is, the models are nothing more than guesses. I probably could've come up with more accurate numbers in Feb.
And people based decisions any the hysteria of these numbers.
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All-In [26968]
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Saying the models are "guesses"
Apr 9, 2020, 1:16 PM
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is an insult to the many brilliant minds who devote their lives to studying epidemiology. Those early projections were critical in showing the need for drastic action, and without those actions, the numbers of deaths would be more dire indeed.
Let me use an analogy. Let's say Alabama goes 11-0, winning every game by an average of 50 points, against a tough schedule. The playoff committee after Week 11 has them #1. They lose their last two games to go to 11-2, and the playoff committee drops them to #4. Does that mean the #1 ranking in Week 11 was wrong? No, it does not. It was the correct ranking for the data available at the time. When the data changed (the two losses), so did the ranking.
The American people, through their sacrifice and concern for their fellow man, have driven these projections down.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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do you know their formulas? these initial numbers
Apr 9, 2020, 1:19 PM
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supposedly factored in social distancing.
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All-In [26968]
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No, I don't, but as experts, I trust them.
Apr 9, 2020, 1:22 PM
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I have no reason not to, and I also have no basis on which to argue they are wrong, having no knowledge of epidemiology myself.
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CU Medallion [73569]
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well, when yoiu are wrong by 98%, i'd have to
Apr 9, 2020, 1:30 PM
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say, you are doing a poor job.
jmo.
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All-In [26968]
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I prefer to think that we have outperformed the projections.
Apr 9, 2020, 1:39 PM
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That is both the most optimistic way of thinking about it, and also the most respectful to medical experts.
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Oculus Spirit [97719]
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Oculus Spirit [97719]
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When there's no way they're right, they're wrong.
Apr 9, 2020, 1:29 PM
[ in reply to How were the models "wrong"? ] |
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They may be right on the peak cases, etc.
No way they're right on this disappearing by July. Not even close. We're flattening the curve. That just buys us time to save lives. The only way this can be accurate is of we get a million confirmed cases, and have at least a 150-1 ratio of actual cases versus positive test results. If that's the case, this is far more virulent than an r0 of 2 or 3 or the 1.3ish of the flu, and will then have a death rate LOWER than the seasonal flu.
There is no data to explain their chart going to zero in July. It's just not there. Precisely BECAUSE we're socially distancing.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: And that brings me right back to the question I asked weeks
Apr 9, 2020, 1:26 PM
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Oculus Spirit [81061]
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None of that will ever be reported as such.
Apr 9, 2020, 1:32 PM
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At least not as "we're all going to work now and restarting the economy". Just one day, I'll ride by the boat landing, and someone will have moved the traffic cones and broken the chain, and that will be about as official as we can get with that.
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Oculus Spirit [97719]
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Oh, it will end, probably within 2 years one way or another.
Apr 9, 2020, 1:43 PM
[ in reply to And that brings me right back to the question I asked weeks ] |
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It ends when 50-60% of a population becomes infected, and creates antibodies for it. That's how they always end. Or a vaccine. Either way.
The TB vaccine thing is good news, but also bad news, depending on if it IS news. Seems at least plausible that it provides at least some level of immunity and/or prevents complications to some degree. IF it provides say 20% immunity from catching this, that means countries with universal TB vaccinations only need 30% or so of their population to get this to create herd immunity where it disappears on its own.
If something like this ends up being the case, it will alter the balance of power across the globe. The wealthiest and largest economies on the planet, at least US and western Europe, will be at a massive disadvantage as the disease will linger here far longer than in those countries already with mandatory universal TB vaccines. The tables will literally be flipped, as the wealthiest countries didn't vaccinate against TB precisely because they didn't need to. Now, those countries who did would have a massive economic and even military advantage over the US, at least for some period of time.
IF the TB vaccine provides eve minimal protection, an important lesson will be painfully learned. As a global economy, with global trade, and interdependent economies, etc., the world we've created for ourselves, EVERYONE needs to be on the same vaccination page.
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All-In [26968]
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Fantastic!
Apr 9, 2020, 1:02 PM
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Way to go, American people!
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All-In [34486]
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NO THANKS TO TRUMP!!!!***
Apr 9, 2020, 1:35 PM
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Oculus Spirit [93668]
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Which is it?
Apr 10, 2020, 8:11 AM
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'Trump inflated the numbers to make himself look good when things turned out like this,' or 'Trump is a xenophobic racist for ended incoming travel from China?'
You need to pick a criticism and stick with it.
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Oculus Spirit [93668]
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I have my own model which predicts that...
Apr 10, 2020, 1:23 PM
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the people at IHME don't know their aszes from their elbows and those who used the models to form public policy don't either.
No offense to you, OK?
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: I have my own model which predicts that...
Apr 10, 2020, 1:32 PM
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Oculus Spirit [93668]
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Have you decided whether the...
Apr 10, 2020, 1:38 PM
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CDC, FDA and NIH are the dumbest people on the planet or the most evil?
I said they were evil when I trounced Trump for letting them lead him around by the nose. Now I'm wondering if he wasn't playing politics and bedded down with them.
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All-In [40932]
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Incorrect, that model predicts that there is a 95%
Apr 10, 2020, 1:33 PM
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certainty that there will be between 26,487 deaths and 154,952 deaths.
The fiver percent uncertainty may seem small, but less than 10% of the deaths from COVID 19 are under 45 years old.
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