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All-TigerNet [12246]
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My take on the CFP rankings for the next two weeks
Nov 29, 2016, 11:46 AM
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Here is what I think the CFP Committee will have for tonight's top 5 rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
5. Penn State
If Alabama wins the SEC, Clemson wins the ACC, Washington wins the PAC-12, and Penn State wins the Big10, I see the final top 5 being:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Washington
4. Penn State
5. Ohio State
Regardless of the talking heads at ESPN, Ohio State will get left out in this scenario. Clemson and Washington will both be 1 loss conference champs and have an overall better record than Ohio State. Penn State will jump Ohio State because they meet two major criteria; Big10 conference champion and won the head to head with Ohio State.
If Alabama wins the SEC, Clemson wins the ACC, Washington wins the PAC-12, and Wisconsin wins the Big10, I see the final top 5 being:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Washington
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin
I think this is Ohio States path for making the playoffs. While Wisconsin will have the Big10 championship they lost the head to head with Ohio State and are from the weaker division of the Big10.
Ultimately, I just don't see two Big10 teams getting into the playoffs so long as Clemson and Washington win their respective conferences. I also believe Clemson will be the number 2 team so long as we win next weekend; regardless of what happens in the Big10.
I also believe the Big10 is over-rated at this point and that no Big10 team will survive the first round of playoff's to make it to the National Championship game.
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Orange Blooded [2638]
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Agreed. The reason your logic works is because
Nov 29, 2016, 11:50 AM
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you are putting the appropriate amount of value on the conference championship.
Appropriate = what the committee has communicated has significant weight in the past -- head to head and conference championship.
Nice job.
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Hall of Famer [24764]
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I agree that's how it SHOULD be in each scenario... But,
Nov 29, 2016, 11:52 AM
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when there's subjective options and political marketing involved, who knows....+1.
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Scout Team [180]
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Re: My take on the CFP rankings for the next two weeks
Nov 29, 2016, 11:52 AM
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All our team needs to do is focus on VT preparation and execution.
All else needs to be out of their minds.
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Orange Blooded [4854]
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2 Keys
Nov 29, 2016, 12:05 PM
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Penn St winning the B1G and it will be interesting to see where Iowa and Nebraska land tonight. If Nebraska drops out and Iowa slides in the Top 25 then Penn St has the better résumé overall over OSU. Penn St will have the league championship, the head to head, with both winning 3 top 25 games. Which leaves only the similar foes, OSU holds that one with the Meechigan W and Penn St can overcome that with demolishing Wisconsin in the title game.
Pitt is also a factor and Temple could also come into play, imo, both in Penn State's favor.
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Orange Blooded [3121]
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Re: My take on the CFP rankings for the next two weeks
Nov 29, 2016, 12:33 PM
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No way Penn St will be ranked ahead of Michigan tonight. Both have 2 losses, Michigan has more good wins, and Michigan beat them head to head by 39. Michigan will be 5, Wisconsin 6, and Penn St 7.
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All-TigerNet [12246]
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Re: My take on the CFP rankings for the next two weeks
Nov 29, 2016, 1:22 PM
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It is possible that for tonight's rankings that Michigan is ranked 5 but that is as high as they will ever go. Michigan is out of the playoff picture - no wiggle room, no path to the playoffs, no way no how. The math is simple - no 2 loss, non-division + non-conference champion gets in this year. So even if Michigan is ranked 5 tonight - they won't be ranked 5 come Sunday afternoon after the Big10 champ game because whoever wins that game will jump Michigan.
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All-In [27366]
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Agreed. The reason your logic works is because
Nov 29, 2016, 12:52 PM
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it's logical.
But football ain't.
If it were we'd have 8 teams: 5 power champions, 1 non-power team, and 2 at-large.
But they're not interested in logic or fairness. They're interested in money, and logic and fairness ONLY come into it if it gets them more money, or is going to cost them money.
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Orange Blooded [3812]
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You need to tweet this to Colin Cowherd
Nov 29, 2016, 1:22 PM
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This is the most logical thought process / list I've seen.
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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I don't understand why we are discounting Wisconsin if they
Nov 29, 2016, 1:34 PM
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beat PSU...
I would argue Wisconsin has a better shot with a win than PSU does. I think Penn St. is a reach, but Wiscy is not.
IMO, if both Wisconsin and Washington win, the committee has a tough, tough, tough decision...
2 loss B1G champ with only losses to OSU and Michigan
or
1 loss PAC 12 Champ with the worst SOS in the FBS
don't be surprised if Wisc. gets in over Washington
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